There was some very bad news offset by modestly good news in today's ADP Private Payrolls report.
The bad news is that after June's 2.369MM jump in private payrolls, consensus expected another solid - if somewhat weaker - print, at around 1.2MM jobs added. Alas, the actual number was far worse, with just 167K jobs added in July, barely in the green, and a clear sign that any V-shaped recovery from May and June is now over.
The good news is that the June print was revised by nearly 2 million higher, from 2.369MM to 4.314MM, making June the strongest month in history. Unfortunately what the market cares about (or used to) are inflection points, and in July the economy clearly slowed down.
As the following table shows, while some 166K service jobs were added in July, only 1,000 good-producing jobs were created last month as the manufacturing recession appears to be coming back with a bang.
Confirming that the labor market is slowing, Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute said that “The labor market recovery slowed in the month of July,” said We have seen the slowdown impact businesses across all sizes and sectors.”
A full breakdown of the ADP print is below:
That said, none of this may matter because as Trump previewed Friday's NFP print in a Fox News interview, "we'll have another big jobs number on Friday''; and reiterated his view of a V-shaped recovery; says the country is in good shape, set to "rock and roll", but Democrats don't want to open schools.