ADP Employment Data Massively Beats Expectations

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by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Jun 03, 2020 - 08:20 AM

Ahead of what will likely be another disastrous non-farm payrolls print this Friday, ADP was expected to show a slowing in the surge in joblessness (from 20.236mm in April to 9mm in May), but ADP massively beat expectations with a 'mere' 2.76mm jobs lost.

“The impact of the COVID-19 crisis continues to weigh on businesses of all sizes,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, cohead of the ADP Research Institute.

“While the labor market is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, job loss likely peaked in April, as many states have begun a phased reopening of businesses.”

Source: Bloomberg

The Services sector continues to bleed jobs faster than manufacturing...

...with large businesses dominating the lost jobs...

The Education sector somehow managed to gain 166k jobs in May?

We don't have an explanation for this massive beat but it seems like there is some outlier adjustment here give the massive spike in jobless claims during this period.

And even ADP admits it has no idea:

The report utilizes data through the 12th of the month. The NER uses the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey. As such, the May NER does not reflect the full impact of COVID-19 on the overall employment situation.