April Payrolls Preview: The Market Does Not Want A Hot Print... Or A Weak Print

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by Tyler Durden
Friday, May 05, 2023 - 11:44 AM

After a tsunami of earnings and major economic and policy releases, including rate hikes by the Fed and ECB, a barrage of earnings culminating with Apple, the week is almost over, we just have one more event to go: Friday's jobs report. So here is a look at what street consensus expects.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: +185k median headline, down from 236k, analyst forecasts range from 125k-270k. This compares to the 3-,6-, and 12-month averages of 345k, 315k, and 345k, respectively. According to Newsquawk, 185k would mark a cooling in the growth of the labor market to levels more consistent with pre-COVID trends, coming down from extremely hot levels.
    • This month Goldman is a notable outlier to the upside, the bank writing that it believes that the payrolls number will be 250K, well above consensus, as "high but falling labor demand more than offset continued layoffs in the information and financial sectors and a roughly 25k hiring drag from reduced credit availability. Big Data employment indicators were strong on net, arguing against a large credit drag. The April seasonal factors for nonfarm payrolls have also evolved favorably relative to the pre-pandemic period and represent a tailwind worth 50-100k, in our view."