Are Treasuries Losing Their 'Safe Haven' Status?

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Treasuries are losing their haven status. Capital is leaving the US at an increasing rate as the dollar’s reserve-currency standing is diminished, and the risk of a recession raises the likelihood of an inflation-stoking double-digit fiscal deficit.

The market turmoil is intensifying. Stocks and the dollar have been falling, but Treasuries have so far resisted the rout, with 10-year yields dipping under 3.90%. After any nearer-term convexity-driven buying, however, they are sitting ducks: