It has been a great year for energy stocks as the chart below clearly reveals...
... and it will be an even better year (and decade) for energy stocks.
Why? Not because of what Goldman trader Michael Sullivan wrote last week explaining why Energy has (finally) become everyone's favorite sector (more than two years after we first told our readers to go balls to the wall long XOM):
“Energy continues to lead. When oil is up. When oil is down. When yields are up, or when they are down. When the US is threatening Windfall Profits Taxes or considering limits on product exports. Whether the market is hiding in defensives or shifting to more offensive positioning ... maybe energy equities are leading because the market sees a pretty good set-up for oil: (1) US SPR release rate is slowing; (2) EU sanctions on Russian sea borne crude are expected to start in Dec; (3) we are passing peak refining maintenance and at the onset of winter -- both of which should drive a sequential increase in demand; (4) distillate inventories are extremely low and subject to upside risks, link; (5) a Fed pivot would likely support inflows into commodities -- implying a weaker dollar -- every 10% move in the dollar is about 300k/d to oil demand on an annual basis.”
It's not because of what One River CIO Eric Peters wrote in his latest weekend note:
“The UN forecasts that world population will pass eight billion next week,” said the energy executive. “One billion of us lack proper access to energy,” she continued. “And we are currently consuming 100mm barrels of oil per day.” That is double what it was 50yrs ago (still rising 1.5% per year). The IEA predicts consumption of 125mm barrels per day by mid-century if the current mix of policies continues. “India’s population will surpass China’s next year,” she said. India GDP per capita is $2,500 (China is $14,340). India is striving to catch up. “In the decades ahead, 90% of the world population will demand more energy.”
It's because of what Joe Biden let slip just two days before the midterms, namely what everyone always knew would be the pinnacle of catastrophic US energy policy under the democrats: "no more drilling"
BREAKING: Two days before the midterm elections, Joe Biden clearly states he is for "no more [oil] drilling." pic.twitter.com/2F9hZNOwMt— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 7, 2022
As Michael Shellenberger so poignantly noted, for months, President Joe Biden and members of his cabinet have claimed that they are no obstacle to expanded oil and gas production in the United States.
On June 21 Biden said, “This idea that they don't have oil to drill and to bring up is simply not true. This piece of the Republicans talking about Biden shutting down fields is wrong.”
On June 22, Biden said, I know my Republican friends claim, we're not producing enough oil and I'm limiting oil production. Quite frankly, that's nonsense.”
And on November 2, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm tweeted, “Disinfo about @POTUS' energy agenda is being used to scare/mislead Americans while industry cashes in. The facts are clear: This Admin outpaced the previous Admin on crude oil production + oil/gas well approvals while also making historic investments in a clean energy transition.”
But tonight, Biden has effectively admitted that he, Energy Secretary Granholm, and others in his administration have been lying.
I have documented the lies Biden has told about his energy policy for the last five months. Others have as well. The Wall Street Journal reported in September that Biden had leased fewer acres of public land and waters offshore for oil and gas drilling than any other administration since World War II.
Granholm tweeted out a Politico article that noted that Biden administration regulators approved oil and gas wells more quickly than the Trump administration did during its first 21 months in office.
But the story was misleading because those approvals were entirely for drilling on private and state land, which are outside of the administration’s control, something Politico acknowledged 12 paragraphs into its article.
Biden's quote, which is on par with his "outrageous" coal plant closure comments, hardly needs more commentary but we will note that it comes just days after the White House unveiled its "brilliantly cunning" plan of promising energy execs that it would buy all the oil they had to sell at $72 to refill the SPR that Biden single-handedly drained to crush US energy companies. Maybe the same oil execs will be just a little skeptical when it comes to anything that comes out of this old man's mouth going forward.