Bitcoin & Bonds Bid After 'Bearish-Bill' Bails; Black Gold & The Buck Breakdown
I don't like Mondays..." anymore...
There have been 15 'Up' Mondays in a row for US equities (there hasn't been a down Monday since before July 4th) until today...
Geopolitically, things did not appear to get seriously worse over the weekend but BoJ YCC-change chatter and Japan's PM comments sent yields higher overnight. 10Y JGB yields hit 88bps intraday - the highest since Jul 2013...
Source: Bloomberg
UST Yields started to fall as Europe opened but Bill Ackman announcing that he was exiting his UST short (at a profit) triggered a big leg lower in yields which in turn pushed stocks back up into the green for the day.
The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests.
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) October 23, 2023
10Y yield topped 5.00% for the first time since 2007...
Source: Bloomberg
The markets all shifted at that 0945ET tweet from Ackman with the dollar dumping, bitcoin and stocks jumping, and the yield curve flattening. Morgan Stanley said 5% was buying point...
Source: Bloomberg
For a yield-lower close day, today was the largest intraday swing since the regional banking crisis in March...
Equity markets soared as yields plunged, and we reminder readers that today marks the first day of the estimated open Buyback window period (which may have helped accelerate the exuberant BTFD move). Late day headlines on NVDA sparked selling in INTC and sent the majors lower with Small Cap and The Dow the biggest losers with the S&P swinging notably red (as we not.
The drop in yields prompted buying the longest-duration stocks with tech stocks leading and energy lagging (as oil tanked)...
Source: Bloomberg
Growth stocks dramatically outperformed Value stocks...
Source: Bloomberg
News that NVDA would make PC chips smashed INTC lower and took the shine of the major US indices. NVDA was not that moved..
Bitcoin topped $31k...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dumped, erasing half the CPI spike
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices slipped lower today, holding at the highs of the day Israel was attacked...
Gold was down modestly after futs topped $2000 intraday, still dramatically higher since Israel was attacked ...
Finally, the sovereign risk of the USA continues to worsen...
Source: Bloomberg
...probably nothing!
Meanwhile, financial conditions continue to tighten...
...now near their tightest since The Fed began this inflation-fighting cycle. “Given that the impact from a tightening in financial conditions on GDP typically takes 1-2 years, the full effect of the severe tightening that took place last year has yet to be felt,” wrote JPM's Marko Kolanovic.
