With home sales slumping across the nation (while mean home prices are surging relative to median, signaling higher-end homes dominating the sales), this morning's Case-Shiller (newly minted S&P Global) home price index data exploded higher. The latest data is from March and shows the 20-City Composite surging 2.42% MoM (more than the 1.93% expected) and surging by a record 21.17% YoY (more than the +20% expected)
BUT... as a reminder, the Case-Shiller data is lagged and smoothed, so things likely got a lot more 'complicated' since this March data as mortgage rates spiked and mortgage applications collapsed...
"Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer," Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.
"For both National and 20-City Composites, March’s reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with the 10-City growth rate at the 99th percentile of its own history."
"Mortgages are becoming more expensive as the Federal Reserve has begun to ratchet up interest rates, suggesting that the macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer. Although one can safely predict that price gains will begin to decelerate, the timing of the deceleration is a more difficult call."
Tampa, Phoenix, Miami reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed.
Yes, you read that right, Tampa prices are up 34.8% YoY...
Maybe it is time for Mr.Powell to get back to work after all.