CPI Preview: The First Real Test Of Tariff Pass-Through

The May CPI report, due on Wednesday at 8:30am, will be the first that gives us a sense of magnitude, not just timing of inflation, if any. As Goldman's Paolo Schiavone writes, tariff-related inflation impacts will be closely watched, and while only 10–20% of the CPI basket will be directly affected, pricing power and behavioral responses could broaden the impact. We'll get into the market implication in a second, but for now...

Expectations: