US Bank-Run Escalates: Deposit Outflows Top $360 Billion In Last 3 Weeks

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by Tyler Durden
Friday, May 05, 2023 - 10:33 PM

Tl;dr: The bank run continues to accelerate...

...especially if one looks at non-seasonally-adjusted data.

Crucially that is over 360 billion of deposit outflows from US banks in the last 3 weeks.

And here is the source data:



How much of this tax related, and how much is a bank run, and how does the Fed know which is which?

Sure, some of this is tax outflows, but the Fed is just using a historical seasonal adjustment  factor AS IF there is no bank run which is traditionally the case...

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After yesterday's massive money market inflows, expectations are that tonight's data from The Fed's H.8 report will show major deposit outflows from US commercial banks (despite today's exuberant bounce in some regional bank shares). Bear in mind, as we detailed yesterday, that The Fed's emergency bank rescue facility usage remains extremely high and has shown now signs at all of easing...

Source: Bloomberg

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total US Commercial Bank deposits fell $12.5 billion during the week ended 4/26...

Source: Bloomberg

However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) increased last week (during the week-ending 4/26), rising $10.92 billion...

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, US commercial bank deposits (ex-large time deposits) tumbled again, down $113 billion (also at its lowest since April 2021)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is over $360 billion in outflows in the last 3 weeks... but but but SVB fixed everything?

And judging by yesterday's money market inflows, the deposit outflows continued this week (remember, despoist data is lagged a week to money market and Fed balance sheet data)...

Source: Bloomberg

Large and Small banks saw very modest inflows (on a seasonally adjusted basis) but foreign banks saw large outflows...

Source: Bloomberg

Foreign banks saw the biggest weekly outflows since 6/30/2021...

  • Large Banks +$10.3 billion

  • Small Banks +$584 million

  • Foreign Banks -$22.14 billion

Source: Bloomberg

However, what really matters is the non-seasonally-adjusted data which saw major outflows across small, large, and foreign banks...

Source: Bloomberg

In context, the bank run is escalating...

On the other side of the ledger, Commercial bank lending rose $41.6 billion in the week ended April 26 after increasing $12.4 billion the prior week, according to seasonally adjusted data.

Small bank lending exploded higher to $30.6 billion...

Small Bank Weekly Change:

  • Small Bank C&I Loans: +$1.1BN

  • Small Bank Real Estate Loans: +$20.6BN

  • Small Bank Consumer Loans: +$5.3BN

  • Small Bank All other Loans and Leases: +$3.7BN

Anyone else wonder how and to whom the small banks lent that much in CRE loans? Money good?

Large Bank Weekly Change:

  • Large Bank C&I Loans: -$0.4BN

  • Large bank Real Estate Loans: -$1.7BN

  • Large Bank Consumer Loans: +$4.4BN

  • Large Bank All other Loans and Leases: +$7.4BN

Despite today's bounce, it was another ugly week for bank stocks(big and small)...

Source: Bloomberg

So you still believe the banking crisis over?

Finally, we remind readers, this data does not include this week's potential problems (as the deposit and loan data is lagged by a week).