Equities subdued in catalyst-thin trade, USD weaker & Crude slumps; ECB's Lagarde due - Newsquawk US Market Open

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Monday, Nov 27, 2023 - 11:11 AM
  • European bourses & US futures are in the red with newsflow focused on geopols and any extension to the Israel-Hamas truce.
  • Black Friday US online sales rose 7.5% Y/Y to USD 9.8bln, while shopper traffic to physical stores rose 2% -5% Y/Y, according to CNBC citing Adobe Analytics.
  • USD remains heavy with initial support from yields also fading, CAD lags given crude.
  • Crude continues to slump; latest reports suggest African states are yet to come to a baseline resolution.
  • Looking ahead highlights include US Building Permits, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, ECB's Lagarde & Supply from the US.

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  • European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with trade ultimately indecisive; whilst the FTSE 100 -0.3% underperforms amid energy action.
  • Sectors are mixed, but with a clear negative tilt; Energy resides at the foot of the pile hampered by crude benchmarks while Telecoms outperform.
  • Stateside, futures are subdued with clear underperformance in the Russell -0.5% vs. -0.1% in the ES & NQ.
  • Black Friday US online sales rose 7.5% Y/Y to USD 9.8bln, while shopper traffic to physical stores rose 2%-5% Y/Y, according to CNBC citing Adobe Analytics. Online sales are boosted by demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment, according to Bloomberg; UK Retail footfall +7.9% W/W in Black Friday week, +2.0% Y/Y, via MRI Software.
  • Deutsche Bank sees the S&P500 ending 2024 at 5,100 (vs Friday's close of 4,559.34).
  • Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
  • Click here for more details.


  • Greenback remains top heavy, but DXY derives some support from firmer US Treasury yields within a 103.22-53 range.
  • Loonie undermined by renewed weakness in oil as USD/CAD climbs from 1.3623 to 1.3661.
  • Aussie probes 200-DMA vs Buck and touches 0.6600 on hawkish RBA vibes, Sterling regains 1.2600+ status after another pushback against rate cuts by BoE Governor Bailey.
  • Euro consolidates gains on 1.0900 handle and Yen pares declines from 149.67 in the wake of a pick-up in Japanese producer prices.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1159 vs exp. 7.1461 (prev. 7.1151).
  • Click here for more details.
  • Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.


  • Bonds regain recovery momentum after a pull-back and bout of consolidation.
  • Bunds pick up the baton from Gilts within 130.56-16 and 95.90-39 respective ranges.
  • T-note lags between 108-14/06 parameters ahead of front-loaded refunding auctions, US new home sales data and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
  • German gov't spokesperson expects the Cabinet to agree on a supplementary 2023 budget this afternoon.
  • Click here for more details.


  • Crude benchmarks continue to slump, with light newsflow unable to change sentiment; Energy Intel’s Bakr reports African states have not reached a resolution yet with regards to their baselines ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday.
  • WTI & Brent Jan'24 are under marked pressure, at session lows of USD 74.07/bbl and USD 79.13/bbl respectively.
  • Base Metals are mixed with overall sentiment tentative, whilst Precious Metals remain propped up, with spot Gold holding above the USD 2000/oz level.
  • Iraq’s Oil Ministry said UAE-based Crescent Petroleum won the rights to two oil fields in the country’s 5th oil and gas leasing round, while another company won rights to the Howaiza oil field, according to Reuters.
  • African states have not reached a resolution yet with regards to their baselines and the OPEC+ meeting is still due to take place on November 30th, according to Energy Intel's Bakr.
  • Panama’s Trade Ministry said Canada’s First Quantum sent notifications of intent to begin arbitration proceedings amid protests demanding to scrap the miner’s contract to run a key mine.
  • China's State Planner conducts a survey on price indices for steel and iron ore.
  • Click here for more details.


  • UK PM Sunak reportedly eyes more tax cuts in spring as he weighs the UK election date, while he also stated in an interview that claims the UK is headed for austerity are unfounded, according to Bloomberg.
  • UK PM Sunak is to highlight almost GBP 30bln of investment pledges by international companies at the Global Investment Summit on Monday which will create thousands of jobs across the UK in the most innovative sectors, including tech, life sciences, renewables, housing and infrastructure, according to the UK government website.
  • UK Lords’ economic affairs committee is advocating for a revision in the accountability mechanisms for the BoE, according to the Times. This call for change is driven by the significant expansion in the Bank's powers and objectives since it gained operational independence 25 years ago.
  • National Infrastructure Commission chair Armitt warned that UK PM Sunak’s funding plan to get private developers to fund an expensive tunnel under London to connect the HS2 line to Euston is set to fail and that the government needs to be ready to fund the core civil engineering for the final miles of the project, according to FT.
  • ECB’s Nagel called on the German government to resolve the budget situation and create budget clarity soon, according to Bloomberg. Nagel also said the ECB's rates were slowing inflation but added that inflation is not yet back down to a level where they want it.
  • EU’s commissioner for jobs and social rights Schmit said EU consumers will have to pay higher prices to cover the costs to provide better rights for gig workers but added that price increases will not kill the industry’s business model, according to FT.
  • BoE Governor Bailey says a lot of the recent fall of inflation is due to the unwinding of energy cost surge, according to ChronicleLive; getting inflation back down to 2% will be hard work.


  • US President Biden is to skip the UN Climate Summit in Dubai, according to NYT.
  • Black Friday US online sales rose 7.5% Y/Y to USD 9.8bln, while shopper traffic to physical stores rose 2%-5% Y/Y, according to CNBC citing Adobe Analytics. Online sales boosted by demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment, according to Bloomberg.
  • Russia placed Meta (META) spokesperson Andy Stone on a wanted list on unspecified charges, according to TASS.
  • Punchbowl has been told that the formal US NDAA conference will be held this week, and the compromise bill could be filed as soon as next week.
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.



  • Israeli authorities released 39 Palestinian prisoners including 6 women and 33 children as part of the exchange deal with Hamas and Hamas released 17 hostages on Saturday, while it was also reported that more Palestinians were released from Israeli prisons and that Hamas released another 17 captives including 14 Israeli civilians on Sunday which took the total number of prisoners released by Israel to 117 and the total number of captives released by Hamas to 58.
  • The release of hostages was reportedly delayed by seven hours on Saturday after allegations from Hamas including that Israel was not allowing humanitarian aid to reach parts of northern Gaza, while it was separately reported that Israeli media quoted an unnamed security source on Saturday that had warned the military offensive in Gaza would resume unless hostages were released by midnight.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with US President Biden and told him Israel will resume the Gaza operation in full force at the end of the truce but would welcome extending the truce if it facilitated the release of ten additional hostages daily, according to Reuters.
  • Hamas announced in a statement on Sunday that it is seeking to extend the truce with Israel if there are serious efforts made to increase the number of Palestinian detainees released from Israel, according to Reuters.
  • Hamas armed wing said on Sunday that 4 of its leaders were killed including the commander of the North Gaza brigade. It was separately reported that the Palestinian Red Crescent said a Palestinian farmer was killed and another was injured on Sunday after they were targeted by Israeli forces in the Maghazi refugee camp in Gaza, while the Palestinian health ministry said two Palestinians were killed by Israeli occupation forces in Nablus and Jenin early on Sunday.
  • US President Biden said a 4-year-old American hostage was released by Hamas and they expect additional Americans to be released by Hamas but do not have firm news, while he noted that his goal is to keep the pause in fighting going beyond Monday.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken held a call with Egypt’s Foreign Minister to discuss obstacles threatening Israel’s truce with Hamas and ways to reach a comprehensive ceasefire, according to a statement by Egypt’s foreign ministry cited by Reuters.
  • Qatar’s PM said Hamas must locate dozens of more hostages held in Gaza by civilians and gangs to extend the truce, according to FT.
  • Turkish President Erdogan and Iranian President Raisi discussed in a phone call the importance of taking a stance against Israeli brutality in Palestinian territories, according to Reuters.
  • Syria’s army said air defences intercepted Israeli missiles flying from Golan Heights which put Damascus Airport out of service, according to Reuters.
  • Unidentified armed individuals have seized an Israeli-linked tanker carrying a cargo of phosphoric acid in the Gulf of Aden on Sunday, according to Reuters citing the vessel management company and a US official. It was later reported that a US warship responded to a distress call from a chemical tanker taken in the Middle East and the tanker is now safe, while Houthis reportedly fired two ballistic missiles at a US destroyer on Sunday evening which failed to hit the target following the US Navy rescue of the Israeli-linked tanker.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu's office confirms receipt of the list of detainees held by Hamas to be released in the fourth batch; notes of major problems in the list of those scheduled to be released and intensive negotiations to change it, Al Arabiya reports. Subsequently, Israel is waiting for Hamas' response to extend the truce for two days in exchange for the release of 20 Israelis, via Al Arabiya.
  • "The Israeli army opened fire east of the Maghazi refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip", according to Al Arabiya (Translated via Google); Looking out for further sources/clarity (reported at 09:58GMT/04:58EST)


  • Ukraine’s air force said on Saturday morning that Russia had launched the biggest Shahed drone attack of the war which was primarily targeted at Kyiv and was mostly shot down, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Russia claimed it repelled a wave of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Sunday, according to FT.
  • North Korea deployed soldiers and heavy weapons at the border following the suspension of the military agreement with South Korea, while South Korean President Yoon said they will maintain a readiness posture and monitor North Korea's activities near the border.
  • North Korean leader Kim inspected satellite photos of target areas in South Korea including photos of USS Carl Vinson and military bases, according to KCNA.


  • Bitcoin is holding just above the USD 37k mark in slim sub-1k parameters with specifics light on the return from Thanksgiving going into an equal sparse US docket to begin the week.


  • APAC stocks declined heading into month-end and after newsflow over the weekend was mainly dominated by geopolitical headlines with a question mark hanging over whether the Israel-Hamas truce will be extended beyond the initial four-day agreement.
  • ASX 200 finished lower as weakness in the defensive and mining-related sectors overshadowed the gains in tech.
  • Nikkei 225 wiped out its opening gains after hitting resistance just above the 33,800 level and as participants digested Japanese Services PPI which showed a slight acceleration.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined following soft Chinese Industrial Profits and amid shadow banking concerns after Chinese authorities opened a probe into struggling shadow bank Zhongzhi, while the PBoC’s notice to strengthen financial support for private companies did little to spur risk sentiment.


  • PBoC issued a notice to strengthen financial support for private companies and will encourage institutional investors to actively and scientifically allocate private companies business process modelling, development and support. PBoC said it is to support private enterprises in listing and financing, mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, while it also said to use monetary policy tools and fiscal subsidies to incentivise financial institutions to service private companies and will reasonably meet the financing needs of private property companies.
  • China's Global Times noted multiple central government departments pledged to support private enterprises' growth and outlined 25 concrete measures to ensure their financing needs and bolster their technological innovations.
  • Chinese authorities opened a probe into struggling shadow bank Zhongzhi after it recently warned of severe insolvency.
  • Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa said they sought an immediate lifting of the Japanese maritime product ban by China in a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang and were able to have a meaningful exchange on common challenges such as climate change and North Korea. They also shared the common view that Japan and China should hold security talks in the near future, while it was also reported that China, Japan and South Korea agreed to boost ties and seek a summit, according to Reuters.
  • Australia’s government will introduce a bill this week that would give the RBA’s independent expert members more responsibility for setting interest rates with a new specialist monetary policy board. Furthermore, the bill would implement the recommendations of the RBA review announced in April including switching to fewer meetings in a year and a dual mandate of price stability and full employment, according to Reuters. In relevant news, Australia named BoE's Andrew Hauser as RBA Deputy Governor who is expected to start before the first RBA board meeting next year, according to Reuters.
  • China to hold CCP Politburo meeting on November 27th, according to state media.
  • Beijing Stock Exchange has reportedly de facto implemented a new policy preventing major shareholders of Cos from selling stock, via Reuters citing sources; amid concerns that sales could extinguish the desired rally.


  • Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Oct) 2.7% (Prev. 11.9%); YTD (Oct) -7.8% (Prev. -9.0%)
  • Japanese PPI Services YY (Oct) 2.3% (Prev. 2.1%, Rev. 2.0%)