Equities tentative, DXY firmer, GBP & Gilts dovish post-data; BoE's Mann due - Newsquawk US Market Open

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Tuesday, Sep 12, 2023 - 10:12 AM
  • European bourses/US futures are generally struggling for direction though Tech lags post-ORCL -9.1% pre-market
  • USD at the top-end of parameters but still sub-105.00; GBP stumbles on caveats to UK wage data
  • Gilts outperform post-data but are off highs as BoE’s appointee Breeden says she agrees that August CPI risks are skewed to the upside
  • Crude benchmarks choppy with specifics light while TTF continues to benefit from strike action, metals softer after Monday’s strength
  • Looking ahead, highlights include BoE’s Mann, Supply from the US.


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  • European bourses are diverging slightly and generally struggling for direction with newsflow light ahead of the week's risk events, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%.
  • The breakdown has the DAX 40 lagging following after-market earnings from ORCL -9.1% in pre-market trade which in turn is weighing on heavyweight SAP -2.7%.
  • As such, Tech is the laggard among European sectors while Telecom and Retail names see some relative outperformance.
  • Stateside, futures are incrementally lower across the board with tech in focus given Oracle and as we await the AAPL, +0.2% pre-market, event; ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%
  • Click here for more detail.


  • Buck finds its feet after a rocky start to the week, DXY towards the top of 104.820-430 range.
  • Sterling stumbles on weak UK labour market metrics alongside strong headline average earnings, Cable retreats from 1.2530 towards 1.2460
  • Euro shrugs off mixed German ZEW survey as VDMA and Ifo deliver bleak outlook updates, EUR/USD closer to base of 1.0713-68 parameters
  • Kiwi undermined by downgrades to NZ fiscal projections, NZD/USD heavy on 0.5900 handle
  • Yen keeps afloat of 147.00 vs Greenback as a Fib supplements psychological support
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1986 vs exp. 7.2859 (prev. 7.2148)
  • Click here for more detail.
  • Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.


  • Bonds bid, but off peaks after solid bounces from Monday lows.
  • Bunds topped out at 130.99 within a range down to 130.60.
  • Gilts reached 94.97 from 94.27 and outperformed on the back of weak components in the UK jobs report.
  • T-note straddled parity between 109-28/23 confines awaiting US CPI tomorrow
  • DMO's 2051 linker and Germany's Schatz tap both well received ahead of USD 35bln 10 year US refunding leg
  • Click here for more detail.


  • WTI and Brent futures are somewhat choppy within tight ranges amid quiet newsflow this European morning and ahead of key risk events including US CPI on Wednesday, the ECB decision on Thursday, and Chinese activity data on Friday.
  • Dutch TTF remains supported with modest intraday gains as the Australian LNG strike and the extended maintenance at Norwegian fields keep prices underpinned.
  • Spot gold is softer intraday amid the firmer Dollar, but the yellow metal remains within yesterday’s ranges and trades on either side of its 200 DMA (USD 1,920.03/oz today) after finding support at the 21 DMA (USD 1,916.41/oz today) yesterday.
  • Base metals see modest softness amid the broader Dollar strength and cautious trade across stocks, although Singapore iron ore futures hit over five-month highs with analysts citing better-than-expected Chinese loans data and pre-holiday stocking ahead of the Chinese mid-Autumn festival at the end of the month.
  • The Australia union said it is to oppose Chevron's (CVX) intractable bargaining application and it wants industrial action to continue until it secures a union-negotiated deal at Australian LNG facilities, according to Reuters.
  • Western Australia State Government says they have no current plans to engage with the Fair Work Commission in the Chevron (CVX) dispute, at this stage there has been no disruption to Western Australia's domestic gas supply.
  • Kazakhstan's Karachaganak gas condensate field is undergoing maintenance on September 11-15th, output will be reduced by 27k tonnes, according to the Energy Minister.
  • China is looking to buy LNG again in latest risk to the global gas market's delicate balance, according to Bloomberg sources; Unipec released a tender to purchase more than a dozen shipments for this winter, in addition to deliveries through the end-2024.
  • India imposed anti-dumping duty on some Chinese steel for five years.
  • Click here for more detail.


  • Oracle Corp (ORCL) - Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.19 (exp. 1.15), Revenue 12.50bln (exp. 12.47bln). Cloud services and license support revenue rose 13% Y/Y to USD 9.55bln +13% (exp. 9.43bln). Cloud license and on-premise license revenue fell 11% Y/Y to USD 809mln (exp. 894.1mln). Hardware revenue fell 6.4% Y/Y to USD 714mln (exp. 742.7mln). Service revenue rose 1.6% Y/Y to USD 1.38bln (exp. 1.4bln). Co. said AI companies are in a pact to buy over USD 4bln of capacity in Gen2 cloud. CEO says confident annual revenue growth will continue to accelerate moving forward and customer demand continues to build. Sees Q2 adj. EPS USD 1.27-1.31 and total rev. to grow 5%-7%
  • Apple (AAPL) is to reportedly sell India-made iPhone on launch day for the first time, according to Bloomberg sources; vast majority of iPhone 15s will come from China. Slight delays with the Indian devices could occur amid unforeseen logistics bottlenecks, sources added.
  • All WTO disputes between US and India have been resolved; both nations have submitted statements to WTO, according to an Indian Trade official. Additional duty of 20% on import of Apple (AAPL) from the US lifted as part of this
  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.


  • BoE's Breeden agrees with the MPC that the risks to inflation around the August forecasts are to the upside; expects inflation to be around the 2% target in two years. Sees balances risks to growth an unemployment in both directions. UK economic activity is weak. Breeden replaces Cunliffe on the MPC from November 1st.
  • German Ifo residential construction survey (Aug): Crisis intensified in August, number of Co's reporting cancelled projects at a new high. Click here for more detail.
  • Germany's ZEW says experts are even more pessimistic about the current economic situation in Germany vs August. More positive economic expectations for Germany are accompanied by significantly optimistic outlook for development on the international stock market, in part due to stable interest rates in EZ and US. Experts expect a further easing of interest rate policy in China.


  • UK Average Week Earnings 3M YY* (Jul 2023) 8.5% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.2%, Rev. 8.4%); this total annual growth rate is affected by the NHS and Civil Service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. Average Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Jul 2023) 7.8% vs. Exp. 7.8% (Prev. 7.8%)
  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Jul 2023) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.2%)
  • UK Employment Change (Jul) -207k vs. Exp. -185k (Prev. -66k); Claimant Count Unemployment Change (Aug 2023) 0.9k (Prev. 29.0k, Rev. 7.4k)
  • UK Vacancies/Jobs: In May to July 2023, the number of unemployed people per vacancy was at 1.4, up from 1.2 in February to April 2023. Show a slight loosening of the labour market as the number of vacancies fell against an increase in unemployment.
  • Norwegian GDP Month Mainland (Jul) 0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.0%; Rev. 0.1%); Month (Jul) 0.3% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. 0.1%)
  • German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep 2023) -79.4 vs. Exp. -75.0 (Prev. -71.3); Economic Sentiment (Sep 2023) -11.4 vs. Exp. -15.0 (Prev. -12.3); EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Sep) -8.9 (Prev. -5.5)
  • German Wholesale Price Index YY (Aug 2023) -2.7% (Prev. -2.8%); MM (Aug 2023) 0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)


  • US President Biden's administration is close to approving long-range missiles including ATACMS or GMLRS both armed with cluster bombs for Ukraine, while these missiles would give Kyiv the ability to cause significant damage deeper within Russia-occupied territory, according to Reuters citing four US officials.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken confirmed they exercised a waiver to allow the transfer of USD 6bln from South Korea to Qatar as part of a US-Iran prisoner swap, according to Reuters.
  • North Korean leader Kim left Pyongyang on Sunday to visit Russia and his train arrived at Khasan Station in Russia's far east, while the White House urged North Korea not to provide weapons to Russia.
  • Kremlin spokesman said Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim will discuss bilateral ties and seek to build good, mutually beneficial relations, while a spokesman also stated that Russia is not interested in Washington's warnings on Moscow's contact with North Korea.
  • No separate meeting between Russian and North Korea defence ministers planned, via Ifax citing Russia's Peskov; Russian President Putin and North Korean Leader Kim to meet in the "coming days".
  • Russian President Putin says FSB captured Ukrainian saboteurs who sought to damage our nuclear power station; Saboteurs were instructed by British services; that is worrying and consequences could be serious.
  • Taiwan's Ministry of Defence 2023 National Defence Report stated that China's military intimidation and intrusions are a new normal and China is using grey-zone tactics to change the status quo.


  • Bitcoin has seen a rebound from Monday's weakness, where BTC dropped to a USD 24.9k low after posting a parameter which was much more pronounced than those seen in recent sessions. Today, BTC has reverted back towards the top-end of that mentioned range and is holding just shy of USD 25.8k.


  • APAC stocks were mixed with the region tentative in the absence of any fresh macro catalysts and with participants bracing for the US CPI data due midweek.
  • ASX 200 was lacklustre amid weakness in energy, tech and financials, with trade also contained after a somewhat mixed business survey and weaker consumer sentiment data.
  • Nikkei 225 gained amid strength in automakers and with SoftBank among the early leaders after its Arm unit IPO was oversubscribed by 10 times although price action was choppy and the index nearly pared all of its gains before revisiting session highs.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded ultimately flat with early downside cushioned following the PBoC's liquidity effort and after Country Garden Holdings received approval to extend 6 onshore bond repayments by 3 years.


  • Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) received approval to extend 6 onshore bond repayments by 3 years and it delayed the voting deadline on two bond payment extensions to Tuesday evening.
  • New Zealand pre-election economic and fiscal update sees 2023/24 operating balance before gains and losses at NZD -11.4B (Budget forecast NZD -7.6bln), while it sees net at 43.6% of GDP (Budget forecast 43.1%) and expects to return to an OBEGAL surplus in 2026/2027 (Budget forecast of 2025/26).
  • Several Chinese banks have reportedly said that regulators as of this year no longer require them to report the proportion of property loans/mortgages in total loans, via Xinhua; indicating a relaxation of restrictions on property financing.


  • Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Sep) 79.7 (Prev. 81.0); Sentiment MM (Sep 2023) -1.5% (Prev. -0.4%)
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence (Aug) 2.0 (Prev. 2.0); Conditions (Aug) 13.0 (Prev. 10.0)