Even Goldman's Biggest Trading Desk Bear Expects Powell To Come Off Dovish

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by Tyler Durden
Friday, Aug 26, 2022 - 01:08 PM

With less than an hour left until today's main event, Wall Street is split into two camps: those who think Powell will be "super hawkish", and surprise markets with his hawkishness, and those who believe he will be merely "hawkish" and end up seeming dovish again. In the first camp we have the likes of JPMorgan, while in the second, Nomura's McElligott wrote overnight that he sees 90% odds that Powell will disappoint hawkish expectations.

With all due respect, neither of the above two have any particular insight into what Powell's agenda may be; yet one bank which does is the world's biggest central bank central bank incubator: Goldman Sachs, where views ahead of JHole are also split, with the research sellside desk having one few view which is far more balanced and sadly, irrelevant, while the bank's trading desk is - as usual - actionable and far more interesting.

First, here is what the bank's outside-facing economists - those who are mostly for TV consumption and thus have to trade within the consensus - have to say: