The Fed Will Pause Rate Hikes In September: Here's How To Trade It

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by Tyler Durden
Saturday, May 28, 2022 - 11:44 AM

Earlier this week, after months of predicting that it is only a matter of time before Powell pulls off another "December 2018" and capitulates on plans to keep hiking until the fed funds rate is "well above neutral", we finally got the first tentative confirmation of this when Atlanta Fed president Bostic said that "it may make sense to pause in September", to which we countered that this is only "the first "pause" hint - Expect many more, and then a hard stop."

Just one day later, a second, far more material confirmation came in the form of the Fed Minutes themselves, which revealed that the Fed's updated PCE forecast shrank notably, with the year-end 2022 print of 4.3% dropping to 2.5% in 2023 and then again 2.1% in 2024, which "would imply the next expected three half-point rate hikes would be the end of the current tightening cycle and set the stage for a major risk rally into second half of 2022."