FOMC Preview: A Hike Is Now "Unfathomable"... So How Does Warsh Explain Skipping After A Hot CPI?

Summary

• 94 of 100 economists in the latest Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday, while swaps price just ~3bp of hike premium (CME FedWatch puts the odds near 10%).
• All 100 respondents expect a hike in December, with ~24bp priced by year-end and roughly 75bp of total hikes priced through September 2027.
• The focus is on how Chair Warsh reconciles a hold with his "timelier return to 2%" mantra after September's hot CPI, and whether Hammack, Logan and Kashkari dissent again.

Expectations: A Skip, Then December