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Futures Bounce On Tech Optimism As Fed Looms

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Jul 27, 2022 - 12:00 PM

Global markets and US equity futures got a strong boost on Tuesday from reassuring big tech reports including Microsoft, Texas Instruments and Google, which delivered double-digit revenue growth reversing the doom and gloom from other reporters. Microsoft assuaged fears that the strong dollar and a weakening economy would hurt sales while Alphabet posted advertising revenue that surpassed analysts’ expectations amid an industry slowdown. Credit Suisse CEO Thomas Gottstein will to be replaced by asset-management head Ulrich Koerner next week after the Swiss bank posted its third straight quarterly loss and its worst trading first half in decades. All of that, of course, pales ahead of the day's main event Later today, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase its benchmark interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point.

Nasdaq 100 contracts led gains rising 1.3% and reversing much of Tuesday's plunge. S&P futures rose 0.8% alongside European stocks which also rose, with the banking sector up even as Credit Suisse Group AG posted a larger-than-expected loss, Deutsche Bank AG warned on costs, and the outlook on Italy’s sovereign debt ranking was lowered by S&P. The dollar and Treasury yields slipped, while oil and European natural gas prices extended gains.

In premarket trading, major technology and internet stocks were higher after both Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet reported double- digit quarterly revenue growth amid tough macro conditions. Microsoft shares rose 4.3% after the software company said it expects double- digit sales growth for the fiscal year 2023. While quarterly revenue was weaker than expected, Barclays analysts say the report shows resilience despite a number of headwinds. Fellow tech giant Alphabet shares also rise 4% in premarket trading after the Google parent reported its 2Q revenue in line with Wall Street expectations. Analysts said the results were better than feared, but noted that “macro uncertainty remains high.” Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q2 2022 (USD): EPS 1.21 (exp. 1.29), Revenue 69.70bln (exp. 70.04bln).Google advertising 56.29bln, (exp. 55.91bln). CFO said FX impact to be even greater in the current Q, according to CNBC. (Newswires/CNBC) +3.5% in the pre-market
  • Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q4 2022 (USD): EPS 2.23 (exp. 2.29/2.29 GAAP), Revenue 51.9bln (exp. 52.45bln). Intelligent Cloud revenue 20.91bln (exp. 21.07bln). Guides FY23 revenue double digits sales growth, FY23 FX impact of 4-points decrease in revenue growth, via its conference call. (Newswires) +3.8% in the pre-market
  • Visa Inc (V) Q3 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.98 (exp. 1.74/1.73 GAAP), Revenue 7.3bln (exp. 7.06bln). (Newswires) Co. seeing no evidence of a pullback in consumer spending. Unch. in the pre-market
  • Twitter (TWTR) said it significantly slowed hiring in Q2 2022; in 2021 and H1 2022, macro factors had a negative impact on, and may negative impact in future periods, such as advertising revenue. Twitter is to hold shareholder vote on Musk deal on September 13th at 18:00BEST/13:00EDT, according to CNBC. (Newswires/CNBC)
  • PayPal (PYPL US) shares jump as much as 6.5% premarket, following a report that activist investor Elliott is building a stake in the payments firm. Results from peer Visa also boost sentiment.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are higher in premarket trading as Bitcoin rebounds along with US stock futures after Alphabet, Microsoft and Texas Instruments results spur hopes that the technology sector can manage a slow economy. Coinbase (COIN US) +4.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +7.6%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +5.5%, Ebang (EBON US) +12%
  • ObsEva (OBSV US) shares slump 75% in premarket trading after the biopharmaceutical company said it plans to initiate a corporate restructuring given the commercial landscape and potential additional capital is needed to fund the completion of the linzagolix clinical development program.
  • Enphase Energy (ENPH US) shares surged as much as 12% in premarket trading as analysts hiked their price targets on the solar energy equipment maker, with brokers saying its results and guidance for the 3Q were robust and exceeded expectations thanks to strong demand.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN US) shares rose 2.8% in postmarket trading on Tuesday after issuing a bullish forecast for the current quarter. Analysts note that the company exceeded its “overly conservative” estimates as lockdowns eased in China.
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals shares jump as much as 16% in Tel Aviv, the most since May 2020, after the Israeli company said it had struck a deal with US state and local governments to pay more than $4 billion to settle thousands of lawsuits. US-listed ADRs also gain 16% in premarket trading.

The mood remains edgy ahead of a much-anticipated Fed interest-rate increase - part of a global wave of monetary tightening to quell inflation that’s stoking concerns about a worldwide economic slowdown. Investors are also bracing for the busiest reporting day of the season, where Meta may sour the mood after the bell with a slowdown in ad spending. Qualcomm will give investors a view into a smartphone market that's losing steam. Boeing, Ford and Kraft are also due.

That said, US company earnings are providing a sliver of hope -- more than three-quarters of firms that have reported so far either beat or met expectations. But there are doubts about how long they can weather economic challenges. Top-tier firms including Apple, Amazon and Mastercard will report tomorrow, on what will be a $9.4 trillion day in the US and Europe. Last but not least tomorrow the US will report the first estimate of Q2 GDP which is expected to print negative confirming a US technical recession.  “Inflation is hurting companies and the question is whether these policy rate hikes are going to do anything to alleviate the pain,” Quadratic Capital Management founder Nancy Davis said on Bloomberg Television.

Elsewhere, President Joe Biden will speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday amid fresh tensions over Taiwan. The White House is also considering whether to lift some tariffs on Chinese imports to stem inflation.

And speaking of the Fed, the swaps market currently prices in around 77bp of rate hikes for today’s Fed decision and combined additional 183bp by the December FOMC meeting. The projected 75 basis-point Fed move to tackle price pressures would cement the steepest two-month rise in rates since the 1980s. The key question is whether Chair Jerome Powell’s policy signals validate or refute scaled-back bets projecting a 3.4% peak fed funds rate around year-end and cuts in 2023 to shore up an economy at risk of recession.

“The Fed hasn’t even gotten to neutral yet,” Jason England, global bonds portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, said on Bloomberg Television. “For them to start easing already or for them to start seeing eases priced in is, I think, a little premature.”

In any case, Powell is expected to acknowledge that downside risks to growth have increased and reiterate the Fed’s commitment to controlling inflation. A full FOMC preview can be found here.

“The risk is that Powell starts to set markets up for a move back to a default position of 50bp moves, though we can see little reason for the Fed to lose the optionality of going 75bp when there is significant news that they may have to react to between this and the next meeting,” according to RBC Capital Markets strategist Adam Cole. Meanwhile, the ECB will deliver only 50 basis points of additional interest rate increases this year as the euro zone succumbs to a recession in the fourth quarter, according to JPMorgan.

In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.6% with travel, personal care and tech are the strongest performing sectors. Credit Suisse shares gained as the bank replaced its embattled chief executive officer and said it would embark on a new turnaround plan just nine months after the last one, while Deutsche Bank fell after it scrapped an efficiency target for the year and warned a key profitability goal was getting harder to reach. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • UniCredit shares jumped as much as 7.4% after what Jefferies said was a “bumper” quarter, with new 2022 profit guidance about 10% above consensus. The lender reported net income for 2Q that doubled analyst expectations.
  • Reckitt shares jump as much as 6.7%, after the consumer-goods company reported 2Q sales that beat estimates and raised its outlook for the year.
  • Worldline shares jump as much as 15% after the payment firm’s 2Q revenue and margin beat expectations, with strength driven by the in- focus merchant services arm, according to analysts.
  • Holcim shares climb as much as 5.9% after it reported 2Q sales that beat the average estimate, with analysts highlighting the building materials company’s success in raising prices.
  • Mercedes-Benz shares rise as much as 4.5% after the company reported 2Q results that beat estimates and raised its guidance. Oddo BHF calls the increased guidance “supportive.”
  • Smurfit Kappa shares rose as much as 6.7% after reporting 2Q results which reassured analysts amid a challenging macro environment. Davy described the release as a “blow-out quarter” and further proof of the group’s business transformation.
  • Rio Tinto shares decline as much as 4.6%, lagging peers in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Basic Resources subindex, after the miner reported 1H results that missed analyst estimates and cut its dividend in half.
  • Adidas shares fall as much as 6.1%. The magnitude of the group’s outlook cut was bigger than anticipated by analysts and could signal challenges ahead for the rest of the sportswear sector.
  • Eurofins Scientific shares fall as much as 11% after the French laboratory company presented its latest earnings. Analysts note that while the company boosted its guidance, organic growth disappointed. The stock trimmed some losses later.
  • Aena drops as much as 7.7% after it reported results that missed the average estimates. Analysts’ worries focus around operating expenses’ inflation for 2H, the winter outlook and any impact from further impairment.

Italian bonds fell after S&P lowered the nation’s outlook to stable from positive after recent political turmoil led to the resignation of the nation’s prime minister and the calling of fresh elections. The rating itself remains at BBB, two levels above junk. The news spread the spread between Italy and German 10Y yields to a new one-month highs.

Earlier in the session, most Asian stocks were higher while gauges in China and Hong Kong fell, with trading volume thin as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1%, dragged down by Chinese tech giants. Trading volume in Asia was among the lowest this year as investors took to the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s anticipated 75 basis point rate hike due later Wednesday.  Hong Kong’s equity benchmark fell more than 1%, with Alibaba’s retreat contributing the most to the loss as the focus shifted to next week’s earnings results. India’s gauges jumped, while those in South Korea, Japan and Australia advanced modestly.   The market is particularly keen to hear about the Fed’s post-July path, which will impact the dollar and flows to the global markets.

“July looks like a very weak season for the market,” with sentiment damped by macroeconomic concerns, Covid and China’s property crisis, Jun Li, chief investment officer at Power Pacific Investment Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “We do have confidence in the second half of 2022,” she said.  A measure of Asian chip stocks reversed its earlier loss to rise for the first time in four sessions, as SK Hynix said it would significantly adjust its 2023 capital spending, which could limit declines in chip prices.

In stocks, US futures rally after strong earnings. S&P futures rise 1%. Nasdaq contracts rally 1.7%. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.6%. Travel, personal care and tech are the strongest performing sectors. Bloomberg dollar spot index falls 0.2%. NZD and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.2%, giving up some of its 0.4% gain from Tuesday. The Fed is forecast to raise its key rate by 75 basis points for a second meeting. EUR/USD gained 0.3% to $1.0144; the pair had tumbled 1% Tuesday as traders focused on spiking natural gas prices on the prospect of reduced Russian supply. Sterling inched up, supported by early gains in UK and European share markets. The Aussie weakened as much as 0.4% after a government report showed inflation was slower in the second quarter than economists forecast, before rallying back to $0.6950. NZD and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX.

In rates, Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve with gains led by belly, outperforming core European rates market and steepening 5s30s spread. US 10-year yields around 2.795%, richer by 1.5bp on the day; belly outperformance re-steepens 5s30s spread back to around 14bp, near middle of Tuesday’s range. The 5-year yield across the Treasury curve continues to slightly outperform, while 2s5s10s butterflies are about 3 bps tighter. In European fixed income, bunds edge lower and gilts slightly bear steepen. The US IG issuance slate empty so far, expected to remain light with FOMC event risk; July volumes have already met expectations, helped by last week’s bumper $45b slate.

In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, adding 1.2% to trade near $96.12. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to trade near $1,724/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME copper rises 1.2%, outperforming peers. 

Looking at the day ahead, the FOMC looms large in the day ahead, but US pending home sales, inventories, and goods trade balance data will also be released, along with consumer confidence figures in Germany, France, and Italy, and Chinese industrial profits. The day is chock full with earnings as well, including: Meta, T-Mobile, Qualcomm, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, Airbus, Rio Tinto, Kering, Iberdrola, Lam Research, Mercedes-Benz, Boston Scientific, Shopify, Ford, Kraft Heinz, BASF, Universal Music Group, Danone, Hilton, Vici, Spotify, Credit Suisse

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.0% to 3,963.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 427.68
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 158.84
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 520.24
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 27,715.75
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,945.75
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 20,670.04
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,275.76
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 55,657.82
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,823.23
  • Kospi up 0.1% to 2,415.53
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.94%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0144
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,723.92
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.19% to 106.98

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Oil Climbs as US Crude Stockpiles Shrink Ahead of Fed Decision
  • Biden Will Speak to Xi on Thursday as US-China Ties Worsen
  • A $9.4 Trillion Results Day Looms in a Test for Stock Market
  • Deutsche Bank Warns of Costs as Inflation Headwinds Build
  • Elliott Is Said to Amass PayPal Stake Seeking to Speed Cuts
  • Europe Energy Prices Keep Soaring as Russia Turns the Screw
  • Europe Gas Extends Scorching Rally as Russia Supply Set to Slump
  • Cathie Wood Dumps Coinbase Shares for First Time This Year
  • Apple Supplier SK Hynix’s Outlook Sours as Tech Demand Wanes
  • Trump Efforts to Create Fake Electors Probed by US Prosecutors
  • Teva Pharmaceutical to Pay Over $4 Billion in Opioid Accord
  • Visa to Dole Out Annual Raises Earlier Amid Inflation Pressures
  • Microsoft Shares Rise on Upbeat 2023 Sales Growth Forecast
  • Trump Returns to D.C., Hinting on 2024 and Jabbing Jan. 6 Panel
  • Google Reassures Investors With Ad Sales Showing Resilience
  • Microsoft Shares Rise on Upbeat Forecast for Fiscal 2023 Growth
  • Texas Instruments’ Rosy Forecast Counters Fears of Slowdown
  • Carson Block Sued Over $14 Million SEC Whistle-Blower Award

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded mixed following a mostly subdued session, but within narrow intraday ranges. ASX 200 moved between gains and losses with the Healthcare sector leading the gains whilst Metals & Mining lagged. Nikkei 225 was similarly contained whilst Canon shares fell as much as 3% post-earnings. KOSPI declined with Apple-supplier SK Hynix warning of a slowing in memory chip demand in H2. Hang Seng underperformed with Alibaba retracing yesterday's gains whilst the property sector was also hit. Shanghai Comp was caged following another modest net liquidity drain by the PBoC, whilst multiple sources suggested the Biden-Xi call is to take place on Thursday.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong will have no choice but to raise interest rates, although the pace or scale need not follow US hikes and it is unlikely to trigger the kind of property market crisis seen in 1998, according to SCMP citing the Hong Kong Financial Secretary.
  • Magnitude 7.2 earthquake hits Philippines region of Luzon, according to ESMC; no tsunami warnings issue, according to Reuters.
  • China overnight rate fell below 1% for the first time since last year, according to Bloomberg.
  • PBoC injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate of 2.10% for a net drain of CNY 1bln.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.6.7731 vs exp. 6.7680 (prev. 6. 7483); weakest fix since May 17th.

European bourses are firmer across the board continuing the MSFT & GOOG driven early APAC action amidst numerous European earnings; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%. US futures are firmer across the board though the NQ +1.4% outperforms amid those after-market developments though participants are looking to the FOMC.

Top European News

 

 

Central Banks

  • Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs have revised their August RBA calls to a 50bps hike (prev. 75bps hike) following the Australian Q2 CPI metrics.

FX

  • Buck backs off before the Fed and US data in the lead up, DXY slips into range around 107.000 and just shy of yesterday's 107.290 recovery high.
  • Sterling secures firmer foothold above 1.2000 vs Dollar and maintains momentum through key technical level against Euro, EUR/GBP cross probes 0.8400 after breach of 200 DMA.
  • EUR/USD retains 1.0100+ status as Greenback wanes and hefty option expiry interest supplements underlying bids, 1.84bln rolls off at the strike.
  • Aussie sags as mixed inflation data sparks round of revised RBA hike forecasts from 75bp to half point, AUD/USD around 0.6950 following test of Fib resistance just under 0.7000 on Tuesday.
  • Loonie pares losses as crude prices settle down and Nokkie makes clean break of 10.0000 vs Euro, USD/CAD closer to 1.2850 than 1.2900.

Fixed Income

  • Whip-saw trade in debt ahead of the Fed as Bunds veer from 156.07 to 155.36, Gilts between 117.67-12 parameters and T-note within a 113-31/119-19+ range
  • 2032 German tap and 2051 UK linker sale sluggish
  • Italian BTPs underperform amidst the political void and S&P revising the sovereign's outlook to stable from positive after interim ratings review

Commodities

  • Dutch TTF Aug’22 is the standout commodity mover, amid a reduction in physical flows through Nord Stream 1; thus far, TTF has printed a high of EUR 228/mWh.
  • Crude benchmarks modestly firmer, but significantly more contained.
  • NEC Director Deese said there are no plans to continue SPR releases beyond the originally set out 6mth period, according to Reuters.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.0mln (exp. -1mln), Distillates -0.6mln (exp. +0.5mln), Gasoline -1.1mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +1.1mln.
  • US Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo met with European counterparts to discuss a price cap on Russian oil.
  • Chinese National Energy Administration expects energy consumptions growth to increase in H2, via Reuters.
  • Spot gold has staged a recovery on the session from earlier lows of USD 1713/oz; however, the yellow metal remains well within recent ranges and continues to move predominantly as a function of USD action.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications -1.8%,  prior -6.3%
  • 08:30: June Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.4%, prior 0.8%; - Less Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • 08:30: June Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6%
    • Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • 08:30: June Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$103b, prior -$104.3b
  • 08:30: June Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.1%
    • Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.5%, prior 1.8%
  • 10:00: June Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -13.5%, prior -12.0%
  • 10:00: June Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -1.0%, prior 0.7%
  • 14:00: July FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Boun, est. 2.25%, prior 1.50%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Burgeoning energy and political crises in Europe, and the specter of the Fed pouring cold water on the recent dovish repricing of its policy weighed on risk yesterday. Diving in.

It was a bad day for the gas crisis in Europe, ultimately seeing European natural gas futures climb +21.2% to €214, their highest since the aftermath of the invasion, bringing them +33.9% higher on the week. As intimated in yesterday’s EMR, Russia was halting another Nord Stream 1 turbine to cut capacity down to 20%. At those levels, the continent would need to countenance rationing unless exports were cut (see our gas monitor here for more details), voluntary curbs which would be politically difficult. Yesterday gave a sense how difficult. While EU countries reached a deal on emergency gas cuts for this winter, the deal lacks the teeth of the original plan, as member states have more flexibility to determine demand curbs, which was a necessary concession to reach a bloc-wide deal. In particular, states can reduce their cuts if they commit to export more gas to neighbors and also exempt certain industries from demand reductions. Member states are due to prepare emergency plans by the end of September to show how they will curb demand.

That drove demand for most sovereign bonds, with 10yr bund yields falling -9.3bps. The STOXX 600 marched to a staccato rhythm all day, fluctuating around unchanged and ultimately closing a hair lower at -0.03%, while continental bourses closed on the downbeat, with the DAX -0.86% lower and the CAC down -0.42%. Along with the lackluster risk environment, S&P lowered Italy’s credit outlook from positive to stable, amid political uncertainty. 10yr BTP spreads widened +5.1bps to 232bps against bunds, their widest since mid-June.

Rising prices will of course be front and center at today’s key macro event, the July FOMC. The market is pricing +78bps of hikes today. That’s in line with our US economics call of another +75bp hike (see preview here). The team expects the Committee to downshift to a +50bp hike in September, reaching 3.6% by the end of the year and 4.1% early in the next one. They see risks to both sides of that modal path; continued hot inflation prints would enable another +75bp hike in September, while material labor market deterioration could flatten the path of hikes. While the Fed will probably offer guidance about how they are currently thinking about policy actions at the September meeting, the amount of data between now and then means investors shouldn’t assign too strong a prior to any forward guidance.

For most investors, however, the key question will be how restrictive the Fed ultimately needs to get policy. That is, how high is the terminal rate? The Chair will certainly be quizzed on the path to terminal during the press conference, but his elucidation about how restrictive policy needs to get will be more informative. DB research has spilled a fair bit of ink on that question in recent days, including US econ on what would trigger cuts next year (here), Alan Ruskin on terminal rate scenarios (here), and yours truly on the predictive power of forward looking rates during FOMC hiking cycles and periods of elevated inflation (here). Today’s Fed decision kept Treasury markets calm, with 2yrs rising +3.7bps and 10yrs just +1.1bps higher at 2.81%.

The market has assumed slowing growth numbers will factor into the Fed’s reaction function since the June FOMC, driving 2yr Treasuries -13.8bps lower, 10yr Treasuries -47.7bps lower, the S&P 500 +3.5% higher, and the NASDAQ +4.18% higher over that time, with around one fewer 25bp hike priced into terminal rates. How the Committee and Chair view that assessment will be a crucial element of today’s meeting.

While US risk has enjoyed an optimistic intermeeting period, more jitters creeped in today, with the S&P 500 closing -1.15% lower. A panoply of less-than-inspiring data weighed on the tone set by geopolitical risk and the Fed; with FHFA house prices (+1.4% vs. +1.5% expectations), New Home Sales (590k v 655k) Richmond Fed Manufacturing (0 vs. -14), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (95.7 vs. 97.0) all pointing toward a looming (or present) growth slowdown. Consumer expectations continue to be weakest since 2013, while present situation figures are the lowest since April 2021. Earnings added to the malaise. Shopify reported plans to cut staff, continuing last week’s theme from major tech earnings. However, after the close, Microsoft missed estimates but shares climb more than +4% in after-hours trading on the back of an optimistic forecast, while Alphabet’s shares were around +5% higher after hours as their ad revenues look to be more resilient than some of their tech peers. That has pointed to a more optimistic open today, with S&P 500 futures +0.72% higher and NASDAQ futures +1.33% higher.

Elsewhere, the Presidents Biden and Xi will speak Thursday. The reportedly ‘robust’ agenda does not include tariffs, as of yet. One to keep an eye on once we’re through the Fed.

Heading into the open, the moves in the US and European equities reverberated across Asia overnight with all the equity markets trading in negative territory. The Hang Seng (-1.25%) is the largest underperformer across the region with the Kospi (-0.58%), the CSI (-0.57%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.32%) and the Nikkei (-0.13%) all lagging.

Australia’s inflation rose +6.1% y/y in the June quarter (v/s +6.3% expected), the fastest annual pace in more than 30 years as food and energy costs increased, accelerating from last quarter’s +5.1% rate. Elsewhere, China’s industrial profits rebounded +0.8% y/y in June, recovering from a -6.5% decline in May as factory activity resumed in major manufacturing hubs.

The FOMC looms large in the day ahead, but US pending home sales, inventories, and goods trade balance data will also be released, along with consumer confidence figures in Germany, France, and Italy, and Chinese industrial profits. The day is chock full with earnings as well, including: Meta, T-Mobile, Qualcomm, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, Airbus, Rio Tinto, Kering, Iberdrola, Lam Research, Mercedes-Benz, Boston Scientific, Shopify, Ford, Kraft Heinz, BASF, Universal Music Group, Danone, Hilton, Vici, Spotify, Credit Suisse

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