Futures Rise, Dollar Slides Ahead Of "Dovish" CPI Report

US equity futures are trading near session highs boosted by a global risk-on mood ahead of a US CPI report for the month of June which JPM said is "more likely to print dovish than hawkish" and is expected to show annual US headline inflation falling almost 1% to 3.1% Y/Y while core CPI is seen dipping less, to 5.0% YoY, which according to the market will erode the case for more rate hikes. Dovish sentiment pushed the dollar lower for a 4th straight day, sending the Bloomberg dollar index to the lowest since April, while also depressing Treasury yields.

As of 7:30am, following Monday's solid gains, S&P futures traded higher 0.3% to 4,485 led by small-caps as bond yields and the USD move lower. Nasdaq 100 futures also rose 0.3%. Commodities are higher while gold, oil, and iron ore prices all higher amid increasing calls for fiscal stimulus from China; ags are also higher driven by next week’s expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

In premarket trarding, Silk Road Medical shares tumbled more than 20% after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services posted a proposed national coverage determination (NCD) for percutaneous transluminal angioplasty of the carotid artery concurrent with stenting. Piper Sandler said the agency’s proposal to grant reimbursement for carotid artery stenting (CAS) would be a net negative for Silk Road if finalized, while JPMorgan downgraded the medical device company to neutral from overweight. Coty Inc. gained 3% postmarket after the Wall Street Journal reported that Kim Kardashian is in talks to buy back the minority stake of her beauty company she had sold to Coty three years ago, citing people familiar.

As preview earlier, slowing headline and core inflation rates in the latest US Consumer Price Index figures due today could be pivotal for policymakers in the months ahead. Both headline and core indexes will post a 0.2% advance in June, marking the smallest rise in core prices since 2021, Bloomberg Economics predicts. For the Federal Reserve, “soft inflation data could sow doubt about the need to hike again,” Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Jonathan Church wrote. The Fed will go on an “extended pause” starting next month, they added.

Here is what the street expects the BLS will report today, first the all-important core June prints which exclude volatile food and energy prices:

Core CPI MoM is 0.3% (0.4% prior)
Core CPI YoY 5.0% (5.3% prior).

And here are the June headline CPI estimates:

Headline MoM of 0.3% (prior 0.1%)
Headline YoY 3.1% (prior 4.0%).

And here is a headline CPI forecast by bank:

3.2% - JP Morgan Chase
3.1% - Barclays
3.1% - Bank of America
3.1% - Credit Suisse
3.1% - Goldman Sachs
3.1% - Morgan Stanley
3.1% - Wells Fargo
3.0% - Bloomberg Economics
3.0% - Citigroup
3.0% - HSBC
3.0% - UBS

Our full CPI preview is here for premium subs. An interesting observation from DB's Jim Reid: "we’ve seen 9 months without an upside [CPI] surprise to headline .. However with regards to core, none of the last seven releases have surprised to the downside."

“Both US and European equity markets have decoupled from the inflation narrative in recent months and this makes sense given the well-behaved decline in US inflation, which should continue with the June release today,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “However, an upside surprise in core inflation could catch investors off guard and lead to more softness in markets.”

“It looks like we are going to get a softish CPI print,” said Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC, who sees US Treasury yields topping out and creating an attractive entry point. “The next big move in yields is more likely to be down than up.”

And even if there is no upside surprise this month, the recent rebound in oil prices, which have seen Brent rise to $80, and push near 3 month highs, assures that next month CPI will be hotter than expected. In fact, absent continued sequential slowdowns, the base effect will now start working against the US as headline numbers start rising again.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index advanced for a fourth day. Nordic Semiconductor ASA jumped more than 6% after an earnings beat, leading the tech sector higher. Bank shares outperformed, with Virgin Money UK Plc surging as much as 7.9% after the UK’s eight largest lenders all passed the Bank of England’s latest stress test. Travel and leisure shares fell, led by Air France-KLM and IAG after Deutsche Bank cut its recommendations on the stocks. Herer are the most notable European movers:

Virgin Money UK jumps as much as 7.9%, making it the top performer on the Stoxx 600 index on Wednesday, after all of the UK’s eight largest lenders passed the Bank of England’s latest stress test
European semiconductor firms rise after Jefferies said the sector has started a new upcycle, upgrading Infineon, Melexis and STMicroelectronics to hold and lifting price targets for a number of stocks
About You shares surge 30%, the most on record, after the online fashion retailer reported first-quarter earnings that beat estimates, with Jefferies noting positive free cash flows
Thales shares gain as much as 2.5% after the French defense firm agreed to buy value safety cockpit communication systems company Cobham Aerospace Communications from private equity firms
Casino rises as much as 13% after French daily Les Echos reported that bidders are ready to improve their offers for the struggling supermarket operator’s debt restructuring
U-blox shares jumped as much as 11%, the most intraday since March, after the Swiss semiconductor company reported revenue and left FY23 guidance unchanged
Kahoot! rises as much as 9.3% after price target is raised to street high of 35 kroner from 25 kroner at Morgan Stanley, cites the game-based learning platform’s new AI tools will be a “great value-add
IAG and Air France-KLM shares fall, leading declines on the Stoxx 600 Travel & Leisure index on Wednesday, after beingdowngraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
Kongsberg falls as much as 4.7% after the Norwegian aerospace and defense group showed lower- than-expected EPS, Pareto says, with DNB flagging an Ebida shortfall after adjusting for a one-off
Bunzl drops as much as 2.9% after RBC cuts to underperform based on “sharp” declines in raw material pricing, which underpins much of the UK distribution company’s product portfolio
Grafton rises as much as 4.5% after the UK construction and materials company released a trading update that Goodbody describes as “solid,” with performance in-line

Earlier in the session, Asian markets were mixed, with declines in Japan and increases in Australia and India. Hong Kong stocks rose after data showed a strong credit expansion in the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese tech firms gained for a third day as unusual praise from the nation’s top economic planner stoked optimism over policy support for the sector. In contrast to the gains in Hong Kong, China’s domestic benchmark CSI 300 index shed 0.4%, an indication that local investors would like to see stronger stimulus to salvage an ailing economy. Also in the spotlight is the yen’s advance beyond the key 140 level partly on speculation that the Bank of Japan will tweak policy later this month.

Key stock gauges in India closed with losses Wednesday led by losses in information technology companies and some banks. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 65,393.90 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by the same magnitude. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.5% for the day. A sub-gauge of IT stocks closed with heavy losses ahead of the beginning of the first quarter earnings season for the sector, with TCS and HCL Tech detailing their results Wednesday. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.9%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, seven rose and 22 fell, while one was unchanged.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index sank to its lowest level in three months as traders anticipated the likelihood of a weak CPI print, prompting doubts that the Federal Reserve will need to hike rates again. USD/JPY fell as much as 0.75% pushing the yen below 140 per dollar. EUR/USD rose as much as 0.25% driving the dollar above 1.10 per euro. Treasuries rose across the curve with yields on the two-year falling one basis points to 4.86% and yields on the 10-year down three basis points to 3.94% Elsewhere, the offshore yuan gained for a fifth day against the greenback, after China’s central bank extended support for the currency via a stronger-than-expected daily reference exchange rate.

In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve with belly outperforming, lessening inversion of 5s30s spread by ~3bp, despite price action that is broadly muted ahead on June CPI print at 8:30am New York, followed by 10-year note auction during US afternoon. TSY yields richer by ~3bp across belly of the curve with 5s30s spread near highs of the day around -20bp; 10-year around 3.94%, richer by 3bp on the day and lagging gilts by 1.7bp in the sector. Gilts outperform, supporting Treasuries with UK 5s30s wider by ~3.5bp on the day. The US Treasury auction cycle continues with $32 billion 10-year reopening at 1pm; it concludes with $18 billion 30-year reopening Thursday and follows well-bid 3-year new issue Tuesday. WI 10-year yield at 3.955% is ~16.5bp cheaper than last month’s result and exceeds auction stops since March

In commodities, oil steadied Wednesday after rising amid indications that Russian crude production is dropping, signaling the market’s supply glut may be coming to an end. Iron ore and industrial metals rose amid optimism that fresh liquidity is bolstering China’s construction sector. Gold was steady.

Bitcoin is a touch firmer and benefits from the softer USD to move closer to USD 31k from a USD 30.5k session base, though the upside is seemingly capped as is the case elsewhere pre-CPI.

Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for June. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the Bank of Canada’s latest policy decision, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book and the BoE will release their financial stability report. Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Barkin, Kashkari, Bostic and Mester, as well as the ECB’s Vujcic and Lane.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,479.75
MXAP up 0.5% to 164.16
MXAPJ up 0.7% to 517.79
Nikkei down 0.8% to 31,943.93
Topix down 0.7% to 2,221.48
Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 18,860.95
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,196.13
Sensex little changed at 65,665.30
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,135.67
Kospi up 0.5% to 2,574.72
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 454.72
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.65%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.1022
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $79.57/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,934.56
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.24% to 101.49

Top Overnight News

China's state planner on Wednesday praised Tencent and Alibaba in a statement detailing a study it had done on platform firms, in the latest sign authorities are warming up to the technology sector after a nearly three-year crackdown. RTRS
Japan’s PPI for June undershoots the Street, falling to +4.1% (down 100bp vs. +5.1% in May and below the Street’s +4.4% forecast). RTRS
Vladimir Putin is to visit China, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, hailing the planned trip as a show of force amid both countries’ deepening rivalries with the US. FT
Hackers linked to China breached email accounts at more than two dozen organizations including some U.S. government agencies, officials and Microsoft researchers said, part of a suspected cyber-espionage campaign to access data in sensitive computer networks. WSJ
Chip designer Arm is in talks to bring in Nvidia as an anchor investor while the SoftBank-owned company presses ahead with plans for a New York listing as soon as September, said several people briefed on the talks. FT
The BOC will probably hike rates to 5% — a level not seen in 22 years. The RBA's Philip Lowe reiterated that more tightening may be needed there, too, as he announced the rate-setting board will move to eight meetings a year from 11. New Zealand kept rates unchanged for the first time in almost two years amid signs of slowing inflation. BBG
GIR expects a 0.22% increase in June core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus, 0.4% prior), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 4.93% (vs. 5.0% consensus, 5.3% prior). We expect a 0.25% increase in June headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus, 0.1% prior), which would lower the year-over-year rate to 3.08% (vs. 3.1% consensus, 4.0% prior). GIR
Prices for sour crude oil have climbed globally this month after top exporter Saudi Arabia hiked prices and expanded production cuts of higher-sulfur oil in the first sign its efforts to prop up global prices is having an impact. RTRS
The U.S. electric vehicle market is growing, but not fast enough during the latest quarter to prevent unsold EVs from stacking up at some automakers' dealerships or to allow Tesla to avoid new price cuts, according to analysts and industry data. RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian stocks traded mixed with the region cautious heading into today’s key US inflation data. ASX 200 was led by the commodity-related sectors after the recent gains in underlying prices. Nikkei 225 underperformed and fell beneath the 32,000 level amid headwinds from a firmer currency in which USD/JPY retreated below 140.00 and following disappointing Machinery Orders data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw mixed fortunes amid cautiousness ahead of key events and despite the stronger-than-expected loans and aggregate financing data from China.

Top Asian News

RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while the Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for the foreseeable future and that the level of interest rates is constraining spending and inflation pressure as anticipated and required. RBNZ stated that inflation remains too high but is expected to decline within the target range by H2 2024, while it noted that recent data suggests tight monetary conditions are constraining domestic spending as expected.
RBA Governor Lowe said it is possible some further tightening will be required to return inflation to the target and it remains to be determined whether monetary policy has more work to do, while he announces changes from 2024. RBA Governor Lowe said from 2024, the board will meet 8 times a year instead of 11 times with Board meetings to start on Monday and conclude at the usual time on Tuesday, while the RBA Governor will hold a media conference after every meeting to explain the decision.

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%, following the gains seen on Wall St. after the European close and despite a somewhat mixed APAC handover. Sectors are primarily in the green with Tech names outperforming following constructive broker action, while Travel & Leisure lags after Air France's reverse share split. Stateside, action is more contained in pre-CPI trade with the newsquawk preview available (see US section) and numerous speakers thereafter; ES +0.2%

Top European News

UK PM Sunak hinted at no tax cuts prior to the next election and admitted by-elections will be challenging, according to Sky News.
UK Chancellor Hunt ordered ministers to find GBP 2bln of savings for public sector pay increases, according to FT.
BoE Financial Stability Report (July): FPC agreed to maintain the CCyB at 2.0%; vulnerabilities in some parts of market based finance remain. UK economy has thus far been resilient to interest rate risk, will take time for full impact to filter through. Major UK banks are resilient and their capital positions remain above the ‘hurdle rate’ even under a severe stress scenario.
BoE Governor Bailey says current level of pay increases not consistent with inflation target; latest jobs data shows some signs of labour market cooling.

Dollar extends losing streak as US CPI looms, with DXY under key Fib support within a 101.610-330 range.
Yen revival continues as USD/JPY breaches more big figure stops and drops from 140.39 to 139.32.
Loonie underpinned near 1.3200 vs Greenback and awaiting anticipated 25 bp BoC hike, Euro back above 1.1000 against Buck and supported by decent option expiry interest.
Pound pivots 1.2950, Aussie fades ahead of 0.6750 as RBA Governor Lowe sounds slightly dovish and Kiwi wanes from 0.6200+ peak after RBNZ holds OCR at likely 5.5% peak.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1765 vs exp. 7.1935 (prev. 7.1886)

Fixed Income

Debt futures resume recovery rally with cash-backing after well received 2033 UK and German offerings.
Bunds, Gilts and T-notes just shy of best levels between 131.40-130.99, 93.26-92.82 and 111-18+/09+ respective ranges ahead of US CPI, Fed and ECB speakers, USD 32bln 10 year auction and Beige Book.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer in-fitting with US equity futures ahead of the regions upcoming inflation print.
In metals, spot gold is incrementally firmer and deriving support from the ongoing USD slump but with upside capped on the constructive risk tone, with base metals portraying similar action.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.0mln (exp. +0.5mln), Gasoline +1.0mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate +2.91mln (exp. -0.3mln), Cushing -2.2mln.

Geopolitics

North Korea fired a ballistic missile which flew 1,000km and was North Korea's longest-ever missile flight time of 74 minutes, while the missile landed outside Japan's exclusive economic zone.
South Korean President Yoon said North Korea will pay the price for its illegal acts and he ordered officials to strengthen extended deterrence through a nuclear consultative group with the US, according to Reuters.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said North Korea's missile launch threatens peace and stability in the region, as well as the international community, while he added the latest action was a serious provocation and a grave violation of UN resolutions, according to Reuters.
Chinese hackers reportedly gained access to US government email accounts, according to NYT.
UK announced it will deliver more than 70 combat and logistics vehicles to Ukraine, while it added that thousands of additional rounds of Challenger 2 ammunition will also be immediately delivered to Ukraine as part of a package. Furthermore, it will launch a project through NATO to establish a medical rehabilitation centre to support the recovery and return of soldiers to Ukraine, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications 0.9%, prior -4.4%
08:30: June CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
08:30: June CPI YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 4.0%
08:30: June CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
08:30: June CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.0%, prior 5.3%
08:30: June Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -0.7%, revised -0.6%
08:30: June Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.2%
14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Banks

08:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Inflation
09:45: Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Monetary Policy, Banking Solvency
13:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks at Atlanta Fed Payments Forum
16:00: Fed’s Mester Speaks on FedNow

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I had a day off at a theme park yesterday. The low points were all the rollercoasters I had to go on which even as I type this morning, I still feel a bit sick from. My motion sickness gets worse the older I get. The threat of a rollercoaster on a ship would probably be a form of torture that would get me divulging every secret I had in seconds. The highlight was winning a human sized teddy in one of those "impossible shoot a big basketball through a small hoop" stalls. My kids went wild and even my wife was impressed with me, something that happens less and less these days. It might go down as one of my top sporting achievements of my career.

Will today be a rollercoaster for markets? It is certainly one of those days where at 8.29:59 New York time, global financial markets will collectively gather round their screens and there will be perfect stillness and calm. A second later that zen moment will be shattered as US CPI comes out at an important crossroads for the Fed. A hike in July is pretty much nailed on but after that it's all to play for.

Today's report follows some considerable declines in headline inflation over recent months. Indeed, the last CPI print was at just +4.0% year-on-year, marking its lowest in over two years. And if you calculate US inflation using the same method that Europe does, it would be as low as +2.7%. But even though headline inflation has fallen considerably in recent months, the core numbers have been much more persistent. In fact, the monthly core numbers have been at least +0.4% for six months running now, so the Fed will be hoping for a slower pace before they can be comfortable about inflation trends again.

In terms of what to expect today, our US economists are looking for a +0.20% monthly gain on headline CPI, which would take the year-on-year rate down to 3.1%. That would be the first sub-4% reading since March 2021. However, they see core CPI as more resilient, with a +0.28% monthly increase that only takes the year-on-year number to +5.0%. For markets, the big question will be what it means for the Fed, but our economists think it would take a very large inflation miss to call a July hike into question, particularly given the jobs numbers last week. And for now at least, investors remain very confident that the Fed will proceed with a hike in two weeks’ time, with futures still pricing in a 89% chance of a move.

With all that to look forward to, markets were fairly quiet but risk-on gathered momentum into the US close. Equities posted gains for a second day running. The S&P 500 closed +0.67% higher, with a broad-based advance as 21 of the 24 industry groups rose on the day. This was led by energy stocks (+2.20%), which benefited from an ongoing oil price rally, with WTI crude up by over 10% in the past two weeks (+2.52% to yesterday to $74.83/bl). Small-cap stocks also outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+0.96%) closing at a 4-month high, whilst the FANG+ index (+0.31%) of the megacap tech stocks posted a smaller gain after three consecutive declines. Risk appetite remained stronger in Europe as well, with several indices including the STOXX 600 (+0.72%), the DAX (+0.75%) and the CAC 40 (+1.07%) seeing solid gains.

That pattern was evident among sovereign bonds as well, where European yields hit several new milestones. For instance, yields on 10yr bunds were up +1.0bps to 2.65%, which is their highest level since early March, the only time yields have been higher in the last 12 years. At the same time, yields on 10yr gilts (+2.3bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.66%. That followed UK labour market data that showed stronger-than-expected wage growth once again, with average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) up by +7.3% in the three months to May. (vs. +7.1% expected). The reading helped cement investors’ conviction that the Bank of England would deliver another 50bp hike at their next meeting on August 3, but there were signs that the impact was already becoming clear in the real economy. In particular, data from Moneyfacts showed the average 2yr fixed mortgage rate hit 6.66%, surpassing their peak around the mini-budget to reach their highest level since August 2008. Our UK economist Sanjay Raja adjusted his BoE call yesterday and now expects a 50bps hike in August but has kept terminal at 5.75% meaning just one more 25bps hike thereafter. See his piece here.

US Treasuries saw a different move in yields, with those on 10yr Treasuries actually down -2.5bps to 3.97%. There was a bit of an increase at the front-end of the curve, and hence resteepening, with 2yr yields up +1.5bps to 4.88%, but they’re still some way beneath the intraday peak of 5.12% after the ADP report last Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning with the Hang Seng (+1.11%) the standout performer again, stretching out its gains for the third consecutive session. Also higher is the KOSPI (+0.14%) which is rebounding from opening losses. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.76%) is lower while the Shanghai Composite (-0.13%) and the CSI (-0.02%) are slightly down. S&P 500 (+0.04%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.09%) futures are just above flat.

Early morning data showed that producer prices in Japan unexpectedly contracted -0.2% m/m in June (v/s +0.2% expected) mainly due to soft commodity prices. It followed a -0.7% decline in the previous month. This equates to +4.1% y/y in June (v/s +4.4% expected and against May’s print of +5.1%) notching the slowest inflation rate since April 2021. Separately, core machinery orders declined -7.6% m/m in May (v/s +1.0% expected; +5.5% in April), more than offsetting the previous month’s increase.

In monetary policy action, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the cash rate steady at +5.5%, in-line with expectations and ending a streak of 12 consecutive hikes. The central bank signalled that the current level of interest rates is having the desired effect but cautioned against holding out much hopes of them loosening policy any time soon. It estimated that inflation would be back in the target band in the second half of 2024

In FX, the Japanese yen is strengthening against most major currencies, extending its gains against the US dollar (trading below 140) for its fifth consecutive session and to its strongest levels in a month. The yen has drawn support on the back of rising speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could tweak its YCC policy at its meeting later in the month.

Looking ahead, another event today will be the Bank of Canada’s latest policy decision. The BoC were one of the first central banks to formally signal a pause to their rate hikes back in January, but last month saw them deliver a hawkish surprise with an unexpected 25bp rate hike. That contributed to a sizeable global bond sell-off that day, and both markets and the consensus of economists are expecting that they’ll deliver another 25bp hike today. If they do so, that would take the overnight rate up to 5%, which would be its highest level since 2001.

Lastly, there were a few interesting data points out yesterday. In the US, we had the NFIB’s small business optimism index, which rose to a 7-month high of 91.0 in June (vs. 89.9 expected). Within the release, there were also signs of weakening inflationary pressures, with a net 29% of firms saying they were raising average selling prices, which is the lowest since March 2021. However, there were signs of tightening credit conditions, with the actual interest rate paid on short-term loans by borrowers up to 9.2%, which is its highest level since 2007. Separately in Germany, the latest ZEW survey for July saw the expectations component fall to a 7-month low of -14.7 (vs. -10.6 expected), whilst the current situation measure also fell to a 7-month low of -59.5 (vs. -62.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US CPI release for June. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the Bank of Canada’s latest policy decision, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book and the BoE will release their financial stability report. Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, the Fed’s Barkin, Kashkari, Bostic and Mester, as well as the ECB’s Vujcic and Lane.

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