US equity futures extended last week's post-payrolls slump, and as of 730am ET traded -0.2% at 3,646, having bounced off the session's worst levels down as much as -1%, while European stocks fell for the fourth straight day as concerns mounted that central bank policy-tightening would send the global economy into a hard landing (as Michael Hartnett warned) taking a heavy toll on the global economy and company earnings. The dollar extended its gains while bonds were closed for trading on the Columbus Day bond market holiday; cryptos were flat.
The semiconductor sector saw an across-the-board hit from Washington’s decision to further restrict exports of cutting-edge chips and chipmaking tools to China, adding to the headaches for an industry already hit by a slump in demand. Europe-listed Infineon, STMicro and OSRAM dropped, while in premarket New York trade, chipmakers Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices shed more than 1% each. Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech index plunged as much as 4.1% after fresh US tech curbs send Chinese semiconductor stocks tumbling. Mainland shares fall after a week-long break as Caixin services PMI returns to contraction territory and reports show sharp slide in holiday spending.
In premarket trading, Ford shares dropped 3.9% after a downgrade to sell at UBS due to weak profit margins. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM US) falls 3% after being cut to neutral from buy, with UBS seeing “demand destruction” for its EV segment after a strong start. Kraft shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading, as Goldman upgrades the stock to buy and downgrades home/personal care “bellwether” P&G to neutral, adding more food exposure within US consumer staples coverage. Here are other notable premarket movers:
- Rivian (RIVN US) falls as much as 7.6% in premarket trading after the EV maker said it will recall about 13,000 vehicles it delivered to customers after discovering a minor structural defect.
- Grab Holdings (GRAB US) falls as much as 2.9% in US premarket trading after Barclays initiates coverage of the ride-sharing and delivery provider at equal-weight, questioning whether the business can continue to thrive as lower income levels and saying car ownership in Southeast Asia may have implications for longer-term profitability.
- US-listed Chinese stocks drop in premarket trading, with sentiment hurt by weak holiday spending data during the Golden Week and new Covid flareups across the country one week before the key Communist Party congress.
- Alibaba (BABA US) -1.6%, Baidu (BIDU US) -1.5%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) -2.1%, JD.com (JD US) -1.9%, Bilibili (BILI US) -5.6%
- US-listed Macau casino operators drop in New York premarket trading after Citigroup cut its estimate of Macau’s gross gaming revenue in October to 5.5 billion patacas from 7 billion patacas, citing disappointing revenue during the first nine days of this month.
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) shares -3.1%, Melco Resorts (MLCO US) -1.7%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -2.2%, MGM Resorts (MGM US) -1.2%
- Keep an eye on Meta (META US) and Alphabet (GOOGL US), as Morgan Stanley trimmed its price targets on the stocks citing low visibility for the digital ads market. Even so, the brokerage expects October to be strong for the sector, given continued efforts to pull forward consumer holiday demand.
While the bond market is closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday and there is no macro on deck Monday, an action-packed week lies ahead, with inflation data due Thursday and the third-quarter earnings season kicking off in earnest. Hotter-than-expected CPI growth would heap pressure on policy makers to extend 75 basis-point rate hikes beyond this year. Minutes of the latest Fed policy meeting on Wednesday may provide insight into where the pain threshold lies for Fed officials, who are so far resolutely hawkish in their message that neither financial-market volatility nor the threat of an economic downturn will deter them from raising rates. Investors are also bracing for disappointment from the coming earnings season, with more than 60% of the 724 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest Pulse poll predicting the season would push the S&P 500 Index lower.
The poll underscored Wall Street’s fear that even after this year’s brutal selloff, stocks have not priced all the risks stemming from central banks’ aggressive tightening and stubbornly high inflation. Over the weekend, Goldman's David Kostin warned that the soaring dollar could hammer corporate earnings. While JPMorgan, Citigroup and other big banks report this week, iPhone maker Apple is in particular focus as its report is expected to offer insight into themes ranging from global consumer demand to the impact of dollar strength.
“The narrative will start changing from central banks and inflation, to one of weaker growth and downward earnings revisions that is going to weigh on risk sentiment over coming weeks,” Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar wrote in a note.
Doubling down on his relentless pessimism, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson warned that the bear market in US stocks won’t be over until earnings forecasts are cut further or share valuations better reflect the risks.
European stocks declined for the 4th day in a row; the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.8%. DAX outperforms peers, dropping 0.2%, CAC 40 lags, retreating 0.9%. Consumer products, tech and utilities are the worst-performing sectors. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Renault shares jump as much as 6.8% as analysts highlight press reports saying the French carmaker and Japanese partner Nissan are in talks to reshape their two decade-old alliance.
- DS Smith jumps as much as 12% after its trading update noted strong revenue growth and “effective cost mitigation,” which analysts said is set to trigger consensus upgrades to FY23 Ebita. Its paper-packaging peers Mondi and Smurfit Kappa also advanced.
- Unite Group’s shares rose as much as 4.2% after a trading update that Peel Hunt said shows robust demand, with a return of students en masse driving full occupancy and an uplift to 2023/24 rental growth guidance.
- Deutsche Bank shares rise as much as 3.4%, the most in the Stoxx 600 Bank Index, after Kepler Cheuvreux says it expects 3Q earnings to beat consensus.
- Credit Suisse shares gained as much as 3.7% after Bloomberg News reported that its SPG unit has drawn interest from bidders including Pimco and Centerbridge.
- ASML shares drop 3.2% as European semiconductor stocks continue to slide on Monday, after the US announcement of more restrictions on exports of cutting- edge chips and chipmaking tools to China added to the headaches for an industry already hit by a slump in demand.
- Stocks including SSE, Drax and Centrica post the biggest declines in the utilities sub-sector after the Financial Times reported the UK government is pushing ahead with plans to cap renewable electricity revenues with legislation that could be unveiled next week. Drax drop as much as -6.5%
- Casino shares slumped as much as 13% to a fresh all-time low after S&P lowered its credit rating on the French grocer, saying the company faces added pressure on its ability to refinance its debts because of the tougher retail environment in France.
In Britain, the Bank of England stepped up its measures to support market functioning as its emergency gilt buying measures entered their final week. The UK central bank said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion ($10.8 billion), from £5 billion previously. However, UK long-dated bonds shrugged off the news, with 10-year yields rising 6 basis points.
Focus is also training on Italy where the yield premium demanded by investors to hold Italian debt compared to Germany has surged to the highest since 2020, after ratings agency Moody’s warned of the need to keep national debt on a sustainable path.
Earlier in the session, equities across Asia declined Monday as strong US jobs data quelled hopes for a less hawkish Fed, while China traders returning from holiday added to the selling pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.4%, falling to its lowest in a week. Consumer discretionary and financials were the biggest drag. China’s CSI 300 closed at its lowest since April 2020 as bleak consumption data and lockdown fears gripped traders as markets reopened after a week-long break. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and the Philippines were among the worst decliners in the region after the US unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to a historic low, bolstering the case for another 75 basis point hike by the Fed. Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan markets were closed for a holiday. The data and comments from Fed officials recently are “throwing cold water on the idea of a Fed pivot,” Nomura strategists including Chetan Seth wrote in a note.
While a much-softer-than-expected US CPI reading this week may lead to a stock rally, “it will likely not last as the market -- and the Fed -- will want to see a series of low monthly inflation readings before expecting a definite pause,” they added. US consumer inflation data will be released Thursday, helping set the tone for the Fed’s decision early next month. Traders are also turning their attention to the latest earnings season and China’s Covid restrictions ahead of the much-awaited party congress in mid October
Australian stocks tumbled the most in two weeks as the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.4% to 6,667.80 after strong US jobs data bolstered bets for more aggressive Fed hikes. The Australian benchmark dropped the most since Sept. 26 as all sectors retreated. Banks and miners contributed the most to the gauge’s decline. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.7% to 10,918.48.
Stocks in India extended their decline to a second day as investors booked profits in some of the recent sectoral outperformers, including consumer goods firms. Software makers were the top performers ahead of the start of the sector’s quarterly results season. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 57,991.11, its biggest single-day drop since Oct. 3. The NSE Nifty 50 Index ended 0.4% lower after paring a plunge of as much as 1.4%. All but two of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by consumer durables makers. Tata Consultancy Services will kick-start the earnings season for the September quarter later on Monday. The software exporter’s shares advanced 1.8%. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 1.1%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 11 rose, while 19 fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as the greenback advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers.
- The euro dropped below 0.97 per dollar. The BOE said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion from £5 billion previously. Officials will also launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility.
- The pound fell against a broadly stronger dollar, edging lower to trade around 1.10 against the dollar, but rallied against the euro. The BOE said it will increase the size of its buying operations for the next five days to a maximum of £10 billion from £5 billion previously. Officials will also launch a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility
- The yen traded below 145 per dollar. One-week implied volatility in the dollar-yen has fallen to trade well below highs seen last month, even as the currency pair closes on 145.90 -- a level that triggered a near $20 billion intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance. The Japanese currency has fallen for eight weeks in a row, its longest-losing streak since May
- The Aussie slid to the weakest level in more than two years after stronger-than-expected US payroll numbers on Friday boosted expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes
In rates, treasury futures drifted lower led by ultra-long contracts following a wider steepening move across the UK gilt curve with cash bond trading closed for Columbus Day in the US. Futures are lower by up to 23 ticks in the ultra-long bond contracts which lead losses on the session; 10-year note futures are lower by 3 ticks trading around 111-12 and inside Friday session range. UK gilts are cheaper by up to 16.5bp across 30-year sector, while UK long-end real yields surge ahead of Tuesday’s 2051 linker sale. US auctions resume Tuesday with 3-year note sale, followed by 10- and 30-year auctions Wednesday and Thursday. UK bonds also declined, led by long-end; 30-year yield rises above 4.5%. Bunds 10-year yield rises ~3bps to 2.16%. UK bonds fell even after the Bank of England stepped up measures to support market functioning as its emergency gilt buying measures entered their final week.
In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer after settling higher by over USD 4.00/bbl and USD 3.50/bbl respectively on Friday. WTI dipped below $92, down 0.7% after last week’s 17% gain, while Brent traded just around $97. French petrol station woes reportedly deepened as strikes continued and the French Energy Ministry stated that 29.7% of service stations were experiencing supply difficulties with at least one fuel product as of 3pm on Sunday vs 21% of service stations on Saturday. Furthermore, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) called on the responsibility of workers to ensure that the country is well supplied with fuel and proposed to bring forward the compulsory annual negotiations to October subject to the end of blockades, according to Reuters. Spot gold fell roughly $14 to trade near $1,681/oz; it traded lower in tandem with strength in the DXY, with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA around 1,678/oz. Base metals are mixed but LME copper and Chinese iron ore futures buck the trend.
Bitcoin is on a softer footing and remains under the USD 19,500 mark whilst Ethereum holds onto 1,300 status.
There is nothing on today's US economic calendar; Fed speakers include Evans and Brainard.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,625.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 388.37
- MXAP down 1.4% to 140.77
- MXAPJ down 1.9% to 454.16
- Nikkei down 0.7% to 27,116.11
- Topix down 0.8% to 1,906.80
- Hang Seng Index down 3.0% to 17,216.66
- Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 2,974.15
- Sensex down 0.8% to 57,712.89
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 6,667.75
- Kospi down 0.2% to 2,232.84
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.18%
- Euro down 0.6% to $0.9688
- Brent Futures down 0.8% to $97.11/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,680.29
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.42% to 113.27
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- The Biden administration’s new restrictions on technology exports to China could undercut the country’s ability to develop wide swaths of its economy, from semiconductors and supercomputers to surveillance systems and advanced weapons
- Missiles struck Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities early Monday, two days after an attack on a key bridge to Crimea that Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed on Ukraine
- Norway’s inflation hit a new 34-year high last month, in a development that may boost expectations of another half-point hike by Norges Bank in November. Headline inflation accelerated to 6.9% in September, above the median projection of 6.2% in Bloomberg analyst poll, and the central bank’s forecast of 6%
- The Danish island of Bornholm, located in the Baltic Sea near the Nord Stream pipelines, was been hit by a complete power failure on Monday, broadcaster DR reported, citing the local energy company
- Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of parliament on Monday, paving the way for elections this year as his ruling party seeks to strengthen its position following a run of successful local polls
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were negative in a holiday-thinned start to the week with market closures in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, while the region digested a contraction in Chinese Caixin PMI data and the recent stronger-than-expected US jobs data which paves the way for the Fed to continue with its hawkish normalisation. ASX 200 was led lower by gold miners and tech stocks after the post-NFP rise in yields and with risk appetite also not helped by a deterioration in the AIG Services Index. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened with Hong Kong pressured by notable losses in the tech sector after the US recently announced new curbs on exports to China on certain tools essential for high-end chip production. Furthermore, sentiment was also dampened following the PBoC’s largest weekly net drain in eight months and after Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs fell into contraction territory, although losses in the mainland are somewhat cushioned following the return of participants from a week-long holiday.
Top Asian News
- PBoC injected CNY 17bln via 7-day reverse repos for CNY 594bln net daily drain on Saturday and injected CNY 2bln through 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Sunday which resulted in the largest net weekly drain in eight months. PBoC also injected CNY 2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% on Monday, according to Reuters.
- PBoC noted that it issued CNY 400bln via MLF during September and outstanding MLF loans fell to CNY 4.55tln at end-September vs. CNY 4.75tln at end-August, while it issued a total of CNY 969mln via SLF in September and its outstanding PSL was at CNY 2.65tln at end-September vs CNY 2.54tln at end-August, according to Reuters.
- PBoC survey found that 53% of bankers believe Q3 monetary policy is appropriate and 45.8% believe Q3 monetary policy is loose, according to Reuters.
- China was placed on high alert amid increases in COVID cases ahead of the Communist Party Congress, according to FT.
- Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US is abusing trade measures to maintain technological hegemony following the recent announcement of controls targeting Chinese chip manufacturers, according to Reuters.
- China's Shanghai requires arrivals to take three COVID tests within three days, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses have kicked the week off on the backfoot as the negativity from last Friday has continued into this week. Sectors in Europe are predominantly softer with the exception of Retail and Telecoms. To the downside, Consumer Products, Tech and Utilities lag. Stateside, futures are softer across the board but to a lesser extent than European peers.
Top European News
- UK Cabinet Office Minister Zahawi said it is extremely unlikely that Britain will have planned power cuts over the winter, according to Reuters.
- UK PM Truss is prepared to listen to Conservative critics who oppose proposals to raise benefits by less than inflation, according to Telegraph sources.
- Retailers in London’s West End warned that the capital faces a consumer growth slowdown with footfall in London’s main shopping area remaining about a fifth lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to research by New West End Company cited by FT.
- DXY extends on Friday's gains with the index back above the 113.00 mark with a current intraday peak of 113.31, with G10s softer vs the USD to varying degrees.
- EUR/USD tested 0.9700 to the downside from a high just over 0.9750 and retreated further from decent option expiry interest spanning 0.9800-55 (around EUR 2.8bln).
- AUD sits as the current laggard with China's sub-50 PMIs overnight adding to the pressure, whilst USD/CNH topped 7.1500.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0992 vs exp. 7.1215 (prev. 7.0998).
- Turkish President Erdogan said the CBRT will keep cutting rates every month for as long as he is in power, according to Reuters.
- Bunds and US Treasuries are off best levels amidst hawkish ECB rhetoric and an upturn in overall risk sentiment that has perked up hitherto weak Italian bonds.
- Gilts are still deeply underwater with the BoE remaining on course to end its temporary buy-back auctions at the end of the week and is switching to liquidity support via expanded collateral repos.
- WTI and Brent front-month futures are modestly softer after settling higher by over USD 4.00/bbl and USD 3.50/bbl respectively on Friday.
- French petrol station woes reportedly deepened as strikes continued and the French Energy Ministry stated that 29.7% of service stations were experiencing supply difficulties with at least one fuel product as of 3pm on Sunday vs 21% of service stations on Saturday. Furthermore, TotalEnergies (TTE FP) called on the responsibility of workers to ensure that the country is well supplied with fuel and proposed to bring forward the compulsory annual negotiations to October subject to the end of blockades, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold has been ebbing lower in tandem with strength in the DXY, with the yellow metal’s 21 DMA around 1,678/oz.
- Base metals are mixed but LME copper and Chinese iron ore futures buck the trend.
- Kumba Iron Ore declared a force majeure due to strike action; export sales will be impacted by around 120k tonnes per day.
- Ukrainian media reported a large explosion at the Kerch bridge in Crimea where a fuel tank was on fire at one of the sections of the bridge, while there were comments from a Ukrainian presidential adviser who called the bridge explosion ‘the beginning’ and said ‘everything illegal must be destroyed’ but did not directly claim responsibility, according to Reuters.
- Russian President Putin described the Crimea bridge explosion as an act of terrorism which Ukraine is responsible for and he ordered tighter security for the Crimea bridge, as well as the infrastructure supplying electricity and natural gas to Crimea, according to Reuters and Interfax.
- Russian investigative committee head said the blast on the Crimea bridge was prepared by Ukrainian special services, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Russian government spokesperson Peskov said it is wrong to consider the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge as a reason for the possible use of nuclear weapons, according to Ria Novosti.
- White House national security spokesman Kirby said US President Biden’s “Armageddon” warning was not based on any new intelligence and reflects the very high stakes that are currently in play. Kirby also stated that Russian President Putin started the war and could end it simply by moving troops out of Ukraine, while he added the US will continue offering security assistance to Ukraine, according to The Guardian and Reuters.
- Explosions were reported across several Ukrainian cities on Monday morning including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro and Ternopil. Explosions were also reported near Ukrainian President Zelensky's office in Kiev, according to Al Arabiya citing Russian press.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky says Russia used Iranian drones in Monday's attacks on Ukraine, according to AFP.
- Belarus and Russia to form a joint regional grouping of troops, according to Belta citing Belarussian President Lukashenko.
- Taiwan President Tsai said they must stand up for democracy and prepare prudently and sufficiently to respond to any possible contingency, while she added that they are sending a message to the international community that Taiwan will take responsibility for its self-defence. Tsai also stated that they want to make clear that armed confrontation is absolutely not an option for both sides and they look forward to the gradual resumption of the healthy and orderly cross-strait people-to-people exchanges, thereby easing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
- China's Foreign Ministry, responding to Taiwan's President's national day speech, says Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory and China will never leave any space for separatists or independence.
US Event Calendar
- Nothing Scheduled
Central Bank speakers
- 09:00: Fed’s Evans Speaks at NABE Conference in Chicago
- 13:00: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at NABE Conference in Chicago
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
For those remembering my pre-match nerves from Friday, I won my 36 hole matchplay final yesterday and was absolutely over the moon. There is a big cup and my name goes on the honours board for hopefully a few generations. The first name on the board won this cup in 1910! In the morning round I had 6 birdies, including 4 in a row. I’d never done either of those things before in probably somewhere around a thousand rounds since I started playing at about 11 years old. My whole body aches this morning though and my sciatica has flared up a little. However it was all worth it. Sorry, boast over now but outside of work this is all I have been thinking and stressing about for the last few weeks! I can now return to exclusively stress about which way markets are going.
After another volatile week, it’s a quieter week for data with one ginormous exception. Yes all roads to and from will all center around US CPI on Thursday. Over the last few months Fed expectations have generally risen with this number and markets have consistently sold off. However there have been a few strong counter-trend rallies on either the perception of a coming Fed pivot or on hopes of being near peak inflation. All have so far been ultimately reversed but the potential for Thursday to dominate the next few weeks of trading is high. Before we delve into some of the details, US PPI and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), and the UoM inflation expectations and US retail sales (Friday) are the other key events Stateside. It’s Columbus Day in the US today with bond markets shut but equities open. It should be quiet but Fed VC Brainard is speaking later today to keep us on our toes. Finally in the US, results from key banks will kick off the earnings season later in the week before the deluge over the subsequent 2-3 weeks.
Elsewhere across the globe, we will also get inflation and trade data from China (Friday) and the PPI for Japan (Thursday). In Europe, the UK will be in the spotlight with an array of economic indicators due, including labour market data (tomorrow) and monthly GDP (Wednesday). After the dramatic aftermath of the UK mini-budget, there will also be some focus on Italy’s draft budget that is supposed to be submitted to the EC by Saturday. Clearly any signs of it being too expansionary could be a red rag to markets increasingly concerned about debt sustainability in pockets of the DM world with yields this high.
A quick early preview of the US CPI number now. Our economists highlight that with gas prices down another near 7% from August to September, energy will again drag on the headline CPI print (+0.28% forecast vs. +0.12% previously). However, core CPI (+0.44% vs. +0.57%) will draw the most focus especially given last month’s upside surprise. Assuming their forecasts are correct, year-over-year headline CPI should continue to decline, falling two-tenths to 8.1%, while core should tick up two-tenth to peak at 6.5%. This is in line with consensus. Whether one number should be the basis for huge swings in markets, it seems inevitable that a notable miss on core on either side could bring about big moves in trading over the coming weeks so stand by.
As mentioned at the top, US Q3 earnings season will kick off with results from major US banks on Friday, including JPMorgan, Citi and Morgan Stanley. Consumer-focused companies like PepsiCo (Thursday), Domino's Pizza and Delta (both Friday) will also be in focus. TSMC reports on Thursday amid concerns of oversupply in some pockets of the semiconductor industry. The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual.
Over the weekend, the war in Ukraine saw another landmark event after the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea was partially destroyed by an explosion, disrupting the most crucial supply line for Russian troops fighting in southern Ukraine. In a video address, President Putin on Sunday accused Ukrainian special services of being behind the attack on the bridge, calling it a “terrorist attack”. Meanwhile, President Putin has tightened security for the bridge and for energy infrastructure between Russia and Crimea and will Chair a meeting with his national security council today. We will have to carefully watch Putin’s and Russia’s response in a conflict where the risks of a major escalation are increasing.
Overnight in Asia equity markets are slipping and further extending a global equity sell-off in thin trading this morning. The Hang Seng (-2.44%) is leading losses with the CSI (-1.02%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.34%) also trading in negative territory on their return after the Golden Week holiday. Chinese semiconductor equities slumped after the US announced fresh export controls on semiconductors to Chinese companies, limiting the nation’s ability to buy and manufacture high-end chips used in AI and supercomputing. In addition, the Caixin Chinese services PMI for September contracted for the first time in four months, falling to 49.3 from 55.0 in August as Covid-19 containment measures disrupted supply and demand while dimming business confidence. Elsewhere, markets in Japan and South Korea are closed for holiday.
In overnight trading, the risk-off mood has persisted in US equities with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.48%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.51%) both moving lower after a tumultuous week. European futures are also down.
Looking back at last week, it was a tale of two halves. The first half of the week saw yet another attempt at the Fed (and other CB) pivot narrative and a huge risk on alongside an initial sharp rates rally. By the second half of the week global central bank officials said ‘not so fast’, holding their line and leading to a drift tighter in financial conditions via higher yields and lower equities. The back and forth led to another volatile week in global markets.
Diving into the specific numbers. 10yr Treasury and Bund yields increased +5.3bps (+5.8bps Friday) and +8.6bps (+10.9bps Friday), respectively, after hitting intraday levels of -27.1bps and -33.7bps for the week on Tuesday.
Major equity indices danced to the same tune. The S&P 500 finished +1.51% higher, but that marked a steep fall (-2.80% on Friday alone) from its intraweek heights of +6.15% on the week when it appeared the Fed policy pivot was in full play. Fed speakers in the back half of the week had plenty to say about that, with New York Fed President invoking the current SEP median showing policy rates at 4.6% by the end of next year as a reasonable base case, with some of the more typically dovish members of the Committee considering even higher policy rates. Likewise, the STOXX 600 finished the week +0.98% (-1.18% Friday), having pulled back -2.82% from its intraday week peak.
10yr gilts exhibited a similar pattern, after the government retreated from the higher income tax cuts, with 10yr gilts +14.5bps higher on the week (+6.9bps Friday), having been -35.5bps lower as of Tuesday. 30yr gilts marched steadily higher over the week despite the broader pattern in sovereign yields, as BoE purchases of the sector slowed dramatically, with yields climbing +56.8bps (+8.5bps Friday) to 4.39%. Still below the dizzying heights reached following the initial release of the fiscal plan but otherwise the highest since 2011.
In data Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased +263k in the US in September, close to +255k consensus, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% with a decline in labour force participation to 62.3% from 62.4%. The move tighter along with the contraction in supply fed the building end of week narrative against any Fed policy pivot. Underscoring the point, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index rose to 2.89% to end the week. Not the sort of numbers that will get the Fed to ease anytime soon.