German Inflation Hits 60-Year-High, 'Worse To Come', Says Allianz
German inflation hit another post-World-War-II record high, piling pressure on The ECB's need to exit from crisis-era stimulus after numbers from Spain also printed hotter than expected.
Driven by soaring energy and food costs, this morning's data showed consumer prices in Europe's largest economy surged 8.7% YoY - far hotter than the +8.1% expected (thge highest since the start of the monthly statistics in 1963).
As Bloomberg reports, the report comes just 10 days before a crucial ECB meeting where officials are set to announce the conclusion of large-scale asset purchases and confirm plans to raise interest rates in July for the first time in more than a decade.
“Inflation is an enormous economic risk,” German Finance Minister Christian Lindner told a news conference in Berlin.
“We must fight it so that no economic crisis results and a spiral takes hold in which inflation feeds off itself.”
Don't look now, but the market's expecting the ECB to raise rates by the same amount as the Fed over the next year! pic.twitter.com/k0ouYghlTI— Rishi Mishra (@aRishisays) May 30, 2022
The squeeze for households is far from over, according to ZEW Economist Friedrich Heinemann.
“Consumers will have to reckon with further increases in prices because many inputs are still scarce and wholesale prices are still increasing dramatically,” he said by email.
“Surprisingly good labor-market data also indicate that the dreaded wage-price spiral could soon pick up speed.”
And according to international insurance company Allianz Trade, it's going to get worse.
“High inflation and post-pandemic declines in in-store grocery sales are putting pressure on grocery retail profitability,” Aurelien Duthoit, sector consultant at Allianz Trade told the newspaper.
“In this respect, the price increases are likely to have a significant impact on consumer prices in the near future.”
In monetary terms, the surge will reportedly total €250 per person per year.
According to the survey published by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich, 9 out of 10 food retailers are planning to raise prices further due to the rising costs of electricity, raw materials and industrial goods.
“The worst is yet to come for households,” Duthoit warned, adding that retail food prices are not reflecting real price increases over the past 18 months.