Goldman Flows Guru: "This Is The Largest Demand For Bonds By CTAs I Have Ever Seen"

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Mar 14, 2023 - 10:45 PM

The last time Goldman's flows guru Scott Rubner commented on markets was two weeks ago, just as bearish sentiment was hitting a fever pitch as 0DTE flows had just turned negative, CTAs were max short, and fears about a hawkish Fed and hot CPI and employment led to a surge of shorts. Here, the Goldman trader - who had first turned bearish in mid-February - once again took a non-consensus view saying that if markets limp through the mounting sell pressure in early March, they could just squeeze through. And much to the chagrin of opportunistic bears such as Marko Kolanovic and Mike Wilson, Rubner was once again right, with the S&P promptly spiking back to 4,100 just days later before resuming its drift lower precipitated by the recent shocking bank failures. 

Since then, Rubner - who has developed a cult following among institutional traders seeking market-moving insight in flows, technicals and positioning - kept radiosilence until this morning, when he published his latest note "Market Technicals (For Tuesday) – Need to Know" (available only to pro subs).

So how is the Goldman flows guru positioned today? To those who read his last note, it will probably not come as a big surprise that his recent skepticism continues to wane, however he is still not a full-throttled bull, but conditional at best, or as he puts it "if equities were to rally and hold, this could be a coiled spring to the upside on an ultra short term basis (ie today) and reverse some of the extreme moves that we have seen in the past 4 days." And while today's move may have come and gone, now that stocks have cut their earlier gains of 2% by more than half, Rubner admits that he is becoming more bullish by the day and is "starting to draft a bullish set up email for April, the start of Q2" one which "looks pretty good."