Goldman Trading Desk: "Retail Has Finally Blinked. Capitulation Is Near"

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by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Oct 09, 2022 - 06:07 PM

For many months, Goldman flow trader Scott Rubner was one of the market's bigger cheerleaders, not because he was innately biased bullish but because the market's Flows and Technicals - Rubner's bread and butter - consistently pointed to much more upside in a world where i) hedge funds are the most bearish they have been in years, where ii) trader sentiment is the worst it has been in in history, where iii) stocks are extremely oversold amid fears of continued fundamental deterioration and where QT means "selling is the new" buying, and where iv) downside hedging and levered bets hit unprecedented levels as recently as a few days ago when the volume of Puts just reached a record high.

Needless to say, with sentiment and flow so one-directionally bearish, it didn't take a rocket scientist to conclude that the market is poised for massive bear market rallies and sure enough we have a huge one in July through mid-August, and a far smaller one last week, both sparked by speculation that the Fed may soon pivot, speculation which the Fed itself was quick to squash but not before another major short squeeze had broken out.