Goldman Warns Another Treasury VaR Shock Could Spark Stock Meltdown

Contrary to his recent cheerful optimism, there was a distinct note of caution in the latest Weekly Kickstart report (available to pro subs in the usual place) from Goldman's David Kostin, who writes that many clients have questioned his optimistic outlook for equities (GS sees the S&P closing the year at 5,200) if markets continue to price fewer and later Fed cuts.

His answer here is two-fold: on one hand, the lack of rate cuts in itself is not necessarily a game changer, and even in the face of climbing rates, Kostin writes, the S&P 500 has returned 6% this year and is just 4% below its all-time-high of 5254.