Goldman's Stagflationary Horror Chart Book

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by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Oct 02, 2021 - 07:30 PM

A little over a month ago, when Goldman surprised Wall Street when it (again) slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% (from 8.5%, and from 9.5% before that), a move the bank's chief economist Jan Hatzius said reflected "hits to both consumer spending and production" we said that the real story was not the continued contraction in growth forecasts but the surprise surge in inflation expectations, with Goldman then expecting core PCE inflation would hit 3.75% by year end 2021.

In other words, already in August, Goldman - which has a 4700 year-end price target on the S&P - admitted sheepisghly that market-crushing stagflation was coming. But, of course, it would be only transitory. Clearly prices have to revert at some point in Q4, right. Otherwise it wouldn't be - you know - "transitory."