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OpEx Frontrunners BTFD After Stocks Suffer 'Good News Is Bad News' Dump

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Sep 16, 2021 - 04:00 PM

Philly Fed spiked more than expected (despite employment, new orders, and 6-month outlook all plunging), retail sales surged more than expected (despite a tumble in motor vehicle sales), and continuing jobless claims fell to a new post-COVID low (despite total number of Americans on the dole rising back above 12 million).

All good news on the face of it - so 'Sell Mortimer Sell' was the message for markets as investors threw a mini-taper-tantrum sending stocks, bonds, gold, and crude lower as the dollar spiked.

As Goldman's Chris Hussey also noted, today may simply be a case of 'sell the news,' ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 is still up 18.7% ytd, despite the advent of the Delta variant and the ensuing downdraft in GDP growth forecasts for 2021. In other words, going into September, the bar had been set high. And a big driver of strong returns -- ultra-low rates -- is facing a bit of uncertainty ahead of next week's FOMC meeting (where the committee may indicate that it is preparing to announce a cut in QE in November .

Of course while stocks tumbled out of the gate from the cash open, inevitably the dip-buyers could not resist. However, some modest weakness at the close left stocks marginally lower on the day with Nasdaq the small winner...

This probably helped convince them...

As everyone and their pet rabbit dived in to front-run tomorrow's option-expiration ramp (Friday, September 17th is a large Triple Witching expiration which means that many stocks/ETFs/Indicies have large options positions that will be closed at 4pm EST on Friday). Specifically, updated open interest figures now show 35% of SPX, 50% SPY, and 35% of QQQ gamma expiring tomorrow. As you can see below we now have 4465/75 as a “pin point” which a sharp drop in the SG Momentum down to 4400.

What this essentially says is that we can anticipate high volatility on a break of 4465, with 4400 now the major support marker...

The S&P maintained its bounce off the 50DMA again...

Cyclicals decoupled from Defensives but both saw dump'n'pumps today...

Source: Bloomberg

Shorts were squeezed once again...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar spiked to the key resistance level at the trough of Jay Powell's Jackson Hole Day speech...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields spiked too today, but while the short-end is now higher in yield on the week, the long-end remains down 5bps...

Source: Bloomberg

But once 10Y Yields had tagged the pre-J-Hole speech levels, yield reversed lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed today with Bitcoin down very modestly, unable to hold $48,000 for now (ETH managed gains, hovering around $3600)...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold plunged again today, back below $1800...

Potential support for gold stands around $1,682/oz., the 38.2% Fibonacci level from its December 2015 low to 2020 peak.

Oil prices dumped and pumped like everything else to end unchanged, with WTI just below $73...

Finally, this is not normal...

But this is...

Let's just hope The ECB and The Fed are bluffing... or lots of freshly-minted stock-trading gurus will get quite a reckoning.

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