By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
“In retrospect it was inevitable,” tweeted Elon. No doubt that’s true. Everything in retrospect is inevitable. Musk had just posted “#bitcoin” onto his Twitter bio, a journey complete, destiny digital, inevitable.
In retrospect, it was inevitable— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 29, 2021
It’s possible Elon hasn’t yet bought his bitcoin, and pre-announced the intention, lifting the price ahead of his purchases. But sane people don’t do such things.
Only central bankers do. They tell us what they’ll buy, in what quantities, and at what time, knowing that those with capital front run their purchases. For decades this helped bankers distort the price of money, accessibility to credit, and asset valuations.
In retrospect, it was inevitable that those with the means to front run the Fed’s manipulations would amass far more wealth than those without.
In retrospect, it was inevitable that those without those means would come to resent those with.
And it was thus inevitable, in retrospect, that in the absence of sensible policies to restore balance to the system, those who benefited from Fed policies would come into increasing conflict with those who did not. Naturally, the latter would vastly outnumber the former and they would thus ultimately prevail in a full-blown conflict.
So in retrospect it was inevitable that those with the means to front run the Fed would find ways to have their politicians give just enough money to those without to forestall such a clash.
And as they argued over whether to approve $1,400 checks, it was also inevitable that those without would rise-up in unexpected ways, to assault the institutions they blamed for the injustices they suffered. Storming our Capitols. Short-squeezing our Citadels.
It was also inevitable, that such conflicts were just the prelude to a tumultuous decade.
And of course, it will be inevitable, in retrospect, that while the central bankers and politicians grew increasingly desperate to fill the growing cracks of their own creation, with printed paper, sane people sought refuge from such things.