It's Official: Tapering To Begin In November, End In July

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by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Sep 11, 2021 - 05:35 PM

It's official: Goldman - the bank that effectively runs the New York Fed - is now effectively convinced (70% odds as this moment vs 45% previously) following an article written by the Fed's official WSJ mouthpiece, that not only is tapering a done deal, but that we know when it is coming.

As the bank's chief economist Jan Hatzius writes following Friday's Wall Street Journal article authored by official Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos and which cites Federal Reserve officials preparing for a November reduction, Goldman is increasing its subjective odds of a November taper announcement to virtual certainty:

We now see 70% odds of a November announcement (vs. 45% previously) and 10% odds of a December announcement (vs. 35% previously); we continue to see a 20% chance that growth risks related to the Delta variant delay the tapering announcement into 2022.