Jobless Claims Continue To Surge, Dashing V-Shaped Payrolls Surprise Hopes

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by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jun 11, 2020 - 08:34 AM

Despite last week's hope-restoring nonfarm payrolls "recovery", in the last week 1.542 million more Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time (slightly better than the 1.55mm expected).

Source: Bloomberg

That brings the twelve-week total to 44.21 million, dramatically more than at any period in American history. However, as the chart above shows, the second derivative has turned the corner (even though the 1.54 million rise this last week is still higher than any other week in history outside of the pandemic)

Continuing Claims did drop very modestly but hardly a signal that "re-opening" is occurring! And definitely not agreeing with payrolls data...

Source: Bloomberg

The claims by state, show an outlier improvement in Florida, where nearly there was a decline of 100K claims, with Texas and Georgia also on the mend, while California, Massachusetts and New York saw the biggest increases in the past week.

And as we noted previously, what is most disturbing is that in the last twelve weeks, twice as many Americans have filed for unemployment than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession... (22.13 million gained in a decade, 44.21 million lost in 12 weeks)

Worse still, the final numbers will likely be worsened due to the bailout itself: as a reminder, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed on March 27, could contribute to new records being reached in coming weeks as it increases eligibility for jobless claims to self-employed and gig workers, extends the maximum number of weeks that one can receive benefits, and provides an additional $600 per week until July 31.

A recent WSJ article noted that this has created incentives for some businesses to temporarily furlough their employees, knowing that they will be covered financially as the economy is shutdown. Meanwhile, those making below $50k will generally be made whole and possibly be better off on unemployment benefits.

Additionally, families receiving food stamps can typically get a maximum benefit of $768, but through the increase in emergency benefits, the average five-person household can get an additional $240 monthly for buying food.

But, hey, there's good news... stocks are near record highs and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he anticipates most of the economy will restart by the end of August.

The big question is - what happens when the $600 CARES Act bonuses stop flowing?

Finally, it is notable, we have lost 392 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 (112,914).

Was it worth it?