In his weekly preview, DB's Jim Reid writes that this isn’t likely to be a blockbuster week in terms of major events "but there will be enough going on to pique our interest levels ahead of the holiday season."
Starting with the Fed, it’ll be deadly quiet on that front as it is now in a blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC. Elsewhere the ECB (Thursday) have their first meeting post the new policy framework announcement alongside three other G20 central bank policy meetings. The main data highlights are the global flash PMIs (Friday) and German PPI tomorrow.
We also have lots of data on the US housing market (NAHB today, housing starts/permits tomorrow and existing home sales on Thursday) which will be closely watched for signs of thawing of the high demand as prices soar and also for any clues to what the Fed will think ahead of any MBS taper discussion. In politics Wednesday could bring a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill but we’ve learnt not to hold our breath on this one. Elsewhere US earnings season hits one of the peak weeks and finally the delayed Olympics begins on Friday in Tokyo.
Looking through the week ahead events in more detail now and let’s start with the ECB. Following the earlier-than-expected conclusion of the Strategy Review by the ECB, our economists expect some changes to forward guidance and communications around the new average inflation targeting unveiled earlier this month. So an interesting first event in a brave new world / same old world (delete according to your view) for the ECB after their review. There will also be rate decisions from Indonesia, South Africa, and Russia. Only Russia (Friday) is expected to adjust their monetary policy, with the median Bloomberg estimate expecting a 75bp increase to 6.25% as inflation continues to run above target.
The global flash PMIs on Friday will be a focal point as economists and strategists will debate whether the rate of growth has peaked. Recent PMI data has signalled that the US economy may have seen growth peak back in March, whereas the PMI data in Europe continues to rise, having hit 15-year highs just last month. However there are signs that Europe may struggle to push on further with delta where it is.
Earnings season will continue in earnest in the US and Europe, with investors likely to be paying attention to any comments on pricing pressures. Among the highlights include IBM today before UBS, Netflix, Phillip Morris, and United Airlines tomorrow. Then on Wednesday we’ll hear from Johnson & Johnson, ASML Holdings, Coca-Cola, Verizon, Novartis, SAP, and Daimler. Thursday sees reports from Roche Holdings, Intel, AT&T, Dahner, Unilever, Blackstone, Twitter, Biogen, and Newmont. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from Honeywell, Nextera Energy, American Express, Kimberly-Clark, Schlumberger, and Southwest Airlines.
A day by day preview of the week ahead.
Monday July 19
- Data: Japan June CPI, US July NAHB Housing Market index, Euro Area May Construction Output
- Central Banks: BoE’s Haskel speaks
- Earnings: IBM, Prologis
- Other: UK lifts remaining Covid-19 restrictions
Tuesday July 20
- Data: Germany June PPI, US June Building Permits and Housing Starts, Japan June trade Balance
- Central Banks: ECB’s Villeroy speaks
- Earnings: UBS, Netflix, Phillip Morris, HCA Healthcare, Volvo, Chipotle, United Airlines, Halliburton
Wednesday July 21
- Data: Japan final June Machine Tool Orders, UK June Public Finances and Net Borrowing, US weekly MBA Mortgage Applications
- Earnings: Johnson & Johnson, ASML Holdings, Coca-Cola, Verizon, Novartis, SAP, Daimler, Las Vegas Sands
Thursday July 22
- Data: France July Manufacturing Confidence and Production Outlook, Euro Area July Consumer Confidence, US June Chicago Fed National activity indicator, weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims, June Leading index, and Existing Home Sales
- Central Banks: ECB Monetary decision and President Lagarde’s press conference, Bank of Indonesia and South Africa Reserve Bank rate decisions
- Earnings: Roche Holdings, Intel, AT&T, Dahner, Unilever, Blackstone, Twitter, Biogen, Newmont
Friday July 23
- Data: Flash manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs from France, Germany, Euro Area, the UK, and the US, UK July GfK Consumer Confidence, Canada June retail sales. Central Banks: Bank of Russia rate decision
- Earnings: Honeywell, Nextera Energy, American Express, Kimberly-Clark, Schlumberger, Southwest Airlines, Danske Bank
- Other: Tokyo Summer Olympics begin
* * *
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the jobless claims report on Thursday. There are no major speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period.
Monday, July 19
- 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, July (consensus 82, last 81)
Tuesday, July 20
- 08:30 AM Housing starts, June (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.2%, last +3.6%); Building permits, June (consensus +1.0%, last -2.9%); We estimate housing starts increased by 1.5% in June, partly reflecting higher permits in the prior month.
Wednesday, July 21
- There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
Thursday, July 22
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 17 (GS 360k, consensus 350k, last 360k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 10 (consensus 3,050k, last 3,241k): We estimate initial jobless claims were flat at 360k in the week ended July 17.
- 10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS flat, consensus +1.7%, last -0.9%): We estimate that existing home sales were flat in June after declining by 0.9% in May. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
- 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, July (consensus +25, last +27)
Friday, July 23
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (consensus 62.0, last 62.1); Markit Flash US services PMI, July preliminary (consensus 64.5, last 64.6)
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA