With US stocks back at all-time highs as the market seemingly shrugged off the FOMC's reaction to the latest inflation numbers, Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass returned to CNBC for an interview with the "Closing Bell" crew on Thursday, where he offered a dramatically different vision of the present economic scenario vis-a-vis inflation.
In an interview where he expounded upon his claim that the US is already grappling with real inflation rates above 10%, the billionaire investor proclaimed that "in every single aspect of life, I see inflation."
Why? Because during the past year and a half, the Fed has introduced more broad money into the American economy in the shortest time than we have seen at any point in American history.
"I think look we're going to see a short-term turn-down in inflation because the initial inflationary burst was enormous...this transitory comment may play out to be true for a short period of time but I hink Sarah when you look at the the money supply the broad money in the US system from 1980 to 2010 it it vacillated between 50% and 60% of GDP and post the global financial crisis it moved up from roughly 60% to 68% 69% of GDP now that we're approaching 90 so in the one year period one and a half year period since COVID started we have introduced 34% more broad money in our system in the shortest time period in the history United States so we're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the fed continues to expand its balance sheet," Bass said.
Even as the financial press prattles on about the significance of the Fed finally starting to consider tapering its asset purchases, Bass believes that the central bank won't be able to shrink its balance sheet so easily.
"We're going to see prices stay high and move higher over time if the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet which I think it will," Bass said.
So, what can investors do to fight this "inflation monster", as Bass colorfully described it. Well, he suggested they focus on hard assets like commodities and real estate, which BlackRock is already buying up in droves.
Equities should "do fine", Bass said, citing data purporting to show that equity prices keep up with between 95% and 88% of inflation over the long term (though that certainly doesn't seem to fit the last decade).
As for his assessment of inflation and its dramatic difference with the Fed's view, Bass quipped: "Your bank account is the final determinant whether there is inflation or not," he concluded, highlighting the higher prices consumers have seen for things like food and cars."
"If you're in the market place you want to own commodities if you’re in the real world you want to own productive real estate you even want to buy rural land in front of major demographic moves in the US...I’d rather own hard assets than equities today because I think we’re only seeing just the beginning of population moves in the US."
Watch a clip from the interview below: