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"Mind-Boggling Liquidity": Nobody Is Paying Attention To The $1.1 Trillion Flood About To Hit Markets

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by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Feb 07, 2021 - 19:55

Amid the ongoing Reddit short squeeze drama which had traders glued to their trading terminals for much of the past two weeks, quite a few may have missed the biggest news of the past week which was the publication of the Treasury's latest Borrowing forecast, according to which the US expects to borrow just $275BN in the current quarter, down a whopping 75%, or $853 billion, from its November 2020 projection of $1.127 trillion.

The reason for this plunge in funding needs is because the Treasury now expects that it simply won't need to borrow as much debt as the end-of-March cash balance held in the Treasury General Account (TGA, which is simply the Treasury's cash balance held at the Fed) would plunge to just $800 billion, down a record $929BN from $1.729 trillion at Dec 31, 2020 (as an aside, the reason why the cash was so high as year end is because the Treasury never got around to actually disbursing the latest stimulus package in December, and it's also why as the Treasury said "the decrease in privately-held net marketable borrowing is primarily driven by a higher beginning-of-January cash balance as a result of lower-than-assumed expenditures.")