Moderna Shares Crater On Huge Revenue Miss, Massive Guidance Cut

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by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Nov 04, 2021 - 11:28 AM

Moderna has just reported its Q3 earnings Thursday, revealing a massive miss on Wall Street's revenue expectations by more than $1 billion, as well as sales guidance that spooked the Street.

The news sent Moderna shares down more than 10% amid reports of rare side effects, new government restrictions and vaccine production struggles.

Shares of the vaccine-making giant led its rivals lower Thursday, as Pfizer, BioNTech and Novavax were all in the red in premarket trading.

Moderna's quarterly revenue came in at $4.97BN, compared with the Wall Street estimate of estimate $6.32BN. Of course, YoY sales have exploded since last year, which was before the US and European governments approved the company's vaccine for widespread use (Moderna only reported $157.9MM in Q32020 billion. Sales estimates ranged from $4.94 billion to $7.37 billion, according to Bloomberg. The company's guidance for full-year 2021 sales also missed the average analyst estimates.

Here's a breakdown of the Q3 earnings courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • Covid-19 vaccine revenue $4.81 billion, +15% q/q, estimate $6.27 billion
  • Revenue $4.97 billion vs. $157.9 million y/y, estimate $6.32 billion (range $4.94 billion to $7.37 billion)
  • Collaboration rev. $19 million, +56% y/y, estimate $19.3 million
  • Grant revenue $140 million, -3.9% y/y, estimate $172.5 million
  • EPS $7.70 vs. loss/share 59.00c y/y
  • Total operating expenses $1.41 billion vs. $393.0 million y/y, estimate $1.49 billion
  • R&D expenses $521 million, +51% y/y, estimate $478.1 million
  • Operating profit $3.56 billion vs. loss $235.1 million y/y
  • Cash and other $15.35 billion

Additionally, Moderna says it has $17 billion of signed vaccine orders for 2022, and expects sales in the range of $17 billion to $22 billion, while the Street sees 700MM to 800MM vaccines to be delivered for fiscal year 2021. But investors apparently still have serious questions about the long-term outlook for sales as the number of booster jabs people will receive remains uncertain, while Pfizer raised its full-year guidance earlier this week, impressing analysts and further cementing Moderna's burgeoning rep as the second-fiddle player in the mRNA vaccine market.