At the depths of both the post dot-com bubble and the financial crisis, the New York City Purchasing Manager Current Business Conditions index, a relatively obscure indicator which focuses on the economy of the financial capital of the world, slumped to levels in the mid-20s after normally being found in a range just above 50, indicating the Big Apple is humming along.
Then moments ago we got the first post coronacrisis print: at 12.9 this was the lowest reading on record, crashing from a solid 51.9 in February (there was no expectation). Specifically:
- The Business conditions outlook fell to 37.9 vs 53.8 prior month
- The Employment index fell to 36.7 vs 49.3
As with all diffusion indexes, a reading below 50 indicates contracting activity, while readings above 50 suggest expansion. It was not clear what a catastrophic reading of 12.90 indicates for the Big Apple, one which at this rate may drop to 0 next month, but the dreaded D-word comes to mind.