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Newsquawk US Market Open: TWTR soars on Musk's offer, while DXY & Debt retreat further; key risk events ahead

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Thursday, Apr 14, 2022 - 09:44 AM
  • European bourses are modestly firmer, but off best levels, with US futures contained ahead of risk events
  • US futures remain in narrow parameters before Retail Sales and GS/MS earnings; TWTR flies on Musk’s offer to buy at USD 54.20/shr
  • DXY pressured and slipping further from 100.00, NZD bounces, EUR gains pre-ECB and SEK bolstered on CPIF/Riksbank calls
  • Core debt continues to slip after brief safe-haven flows from Medvedev commentary dissipate, UST yield curve modestly steeper
  • Russia’s Medvedev said if Sweden and Finland join NATO there can be no more talk of a nuclear-free Baltic
  • WTI and Brent are pressured and near session troughs, focused on Ukraine-Russia and China’s COVID situation
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings incl. Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs.

 

As of 11:20BST/06:20ET

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US IJC, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings incl. Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs.
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

NEGOTIATIONS/TALKS

  • US is said to be mulling sending a high-level official to Kyiv, Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky, according to Politico.
  • Ukrainian negotiator says Ukraine wants the number of guarantors (in a deal) to increase but Russia is opposed to this, via Reuters.
  • Ukraine's Deputy PM says nine humanitarian corridors have been agreed for Thursday, via Reuters.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister says talks with Russia continue but without much progress, real progress in negotiations with Russia will only be possible based on the results of the Donbass attack, via AJA Breaking.
  • Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev says that if Sweden and Finland join NATO, it will make no large difference for Russia, it will just mean a few more opponents; If Sweden and Finland join NATO there can be no more talk of a nuclear-free Baltic as the "balance must be restored".
  • Russia's Kremlin says, on Finland and Sweden joining NATO, says President Putin will consider measures once the defence ministry presents them, will take time to put the proposals together, via Reuters.

DEFENCE/MILITARY

  • Russia said if attacks on Russian territory continue, then Russian forces will strike at the places where such decisions are made including Kyiv, according to RIA.
  • Russia said its Moskva missile cruise ship was seriously damaged following an ammunition explosion while the crew were evacuated and the cause of the fire that prompted the explosion is being investigated, according to Interfax. It was earlier claimed that Ukrainian forces hit the ship with missile strikes, according to AFP.

ENERGY/ECONOMIC SANCTIONS & UPDATES

  • White House said secondary sanctions and targeting of additional financial firms are among the range of potential sanctions that remain aimed at Russia, according to Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin told Austrian Chancellor Nehammer in their meeting on Monday that Russia will continue making contracted gas deliveries to Europe and will accept EUR payments, via Reuters citing APA news.

OTHER

  • Russia's government will conduct discussions on Thursday regarding subsidies for airlines and airports to help them cope with western sanctions, according to Reuters.
  • IAEA report notes that the agency finished installing cameras at new Iran's centrifuge-parts workshop at the Natanz plant, according to a document seen by Reuters.
  • Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said “China will continue to place Pakistan as a priority in its neighbouring diplomacy”, via Global Times.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, but off best levels as sentiment was hit on commentary from Russia's Medvedev and as we await key bank earnings.
  • Sectors in Europe are contained and are not exhibiting any pronounced theme thus far.
  • US futures remain within narrow parameters at this point in time awaiting updates from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley before Retail Sales rounds off the week's key data; NQ +0.1%.
  • Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, on April 13th, offered to purchase all of the outstanding Twitter (TWTR) shares for USD 54.20/shr (vs prior close of USD 45.85); said it was his final offer. TWTR +13% in the pre-market
  • TSMC (2330 TW) Q1 (TWD): Revenue 491bln (prev. 362bln), Net Profit 202.7bln (exp. 184.7bln), Gross Margin 55.6%. Expects chip demand to continue in the long term, believes capacity will remain tight this year and expects another strong year. Working to address supply chain challenges with tool suppliers.
  • UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 5.49 (exp. 5.38/5.16 GAAP), Revenue (exp. 78.79bln); Raised upper end of guidance.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • DXY almost full point down from midweek y-t-d peak as US Treasury yields continue to recede ahead of packed pre-Easter agenda index hovering above 95.500 vs 100.520 high.
  • Kiwi rebounds after RBNZ letdown with tailwinds from AUD/NZD cross in wake of weaker than forecast Aussie jobs data, NZD/USD back on 0.6800 handle, AUD/USD straddling 0.7450.
  • Euro takes advantage of Greenback retreat awaiting words of wisdom from ECB President Lagarde following policy announcement that is not expected to reveal changes; EUR/USD above 1.0900 vs close shave with 2022 low (1.0806) yesterday.
  • Swedish Crown aloft as more consensus and Riksbank target topping inflation prints prompt earlier rate hike calls, EUR/SEK pivots 10.3000.
  • Korean Won and Singapore Dollar boosted by shock BoK hike and MAS tightening, but Chinese Yuan backs off amidst growing speculation about PBoC easing possibly as soon as tomorrow.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • Click here for more detail

FIXED INCOME

  • Eurozone bonds extend retreat from recovery peaks and underperformance ahead of the ECB.
  • Bunds nearer 155.00 after rebound to just shy of 156.00, Gilts sub-119.00 vs 119.65 Liffe high and 10 year T-note closer to 120-19+ overnight bottom than 121-05+ top.
  • US Treasuries down in sympathy with Gilts and curve a tad steeper after so-so long bond auction.
  • Debt also defensive pre-long Easter weekend and busy line up of US data, including IJC and retail sales.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • WTI and Brent are pressured and in relatively proximity to the session's troughs of USD 102.50/bbl and USD 107.01/bbl.
  • Newsflow remains focused on Ukraine-Russia, particularly Medvedev's commentary, and the COVID situation in China as other cities are on edge re. Shanghai.
  • Libyan National Unity Government adopted a plan to develop the oil sector to raise output to 1.4mln bpd, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese refiners are seen cutting April's crude throughput by 900k BPD, around 6% of the 2021 average, via Reuters citing sources/analysts; expected to export 2mln/T of refined fuel in April, counter to earlier China plan to halt exports.
  • Spot gold/silver are pressured and have lost the brief upside derived from earlier geopolitical developments, yellow metal at lows of USD 1967/oz.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE DATA

  • UK RICS Housing Survey (Mar) 74 vs. Exp. 75.0 (Prev. 79.0, Rev. 78)
  • Swedish CPIF YY (Mar) 6.1% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 4.5%); MM (Mar) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 0.9%)
  • Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Mar) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.4%); Ex-Energy MM (Mar) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.0%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin continues to reside within the lacklustre ranges exhibited during the APAC session, holding just above the USD 41.1k mark.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks were mostly positive after the gains on Wall St where risk appetite was supported by lower yields, although some bourses lagged on policy tightening.
  • ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped by cautiousness in the top-weighted financials sector after Bank of Queensland's shares failed to benefit post-earnings.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 27,000 level with Japan's ruling coalition parties unveiling their draft relief proposals.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JT) 6-month (JPY): Net Profit 146.84bln, +38.7%; Operating Profit 189.3bln, +12.7%; Pretax Profit 212.6bln, +24%; Sees FY net income at 190bln (prev. guidance 175bln)
  • KOSPI and Straits Times Index lagged after the BoK unexpectedly hiked rates by 25bps points and the MAS tightened FX-based policy, respectively.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with speculation rife that the PBoC will lower rates tomorrow via an MLF rate cut, while Citi also sees the possibility for a RRR cut on Friday to free up around CNY 1.2tln cash.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a net neutral daily position.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.3540 vs exp. 6.3543 (prev. 6.3752)
  • Japan's ruling LDP draft proposal stated the government should prioritise compiling a relief package swiftly by tapping special reserves to fund spending and urged for increased aid to soften the blow from rising fuel prices but did not mention the desired spending size, according to Reuters.
  • Japan's ruling coalition partner Komeito party draft called for establishing funds to support businesses impacted by sanctions against Russia and strongly demanded the government to deliver an extra budget urgently, according to Reuters.
  • Bank of Korea unexpectedly raised its Base Rate by 25bps to 1.50% with the decision unanimous, while the BoK MPC chief said they couldn't wait for the formal appointment of a Governor to resume the fight against inflation and that the views among BoK board members are seen diverging. BoK said South Korea's growth is to sustain a recovery but will be lower than previously projected and inflation will run higher than earlier estimated, according to Reuters.
  • Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened its FX-based policy, as expected, by slightly raising the rate of appreciation of the policy band and re-centred the mid-point of the band at the prevailing level of the SGD NEER., while it noted that tighter monetary policy stance will slow the inflation momentum and help ensure medium-term price stability, according to Reuters.

NOTABLE APAC DATA

  • Singapore GDP QQ (Q1 A) 0.4% vs Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 10.7%); YY (Q1 A) 3.4% vs Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 6.1%)
  • Australian Employment Change (Mar) 17.9k vs. Exp. 40.0k (Prev. 77.4k); Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.0%)

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