Many on Wall Street are trying to forecast the shape of the economic recovery in a post-corona world. Some are split between either a V-shaped, U-shaped and or L-shaped recovery. In the last three decades of recoveries following an economic shock, each recovery has been slower and slower.
Stock investors in a post-corona world are pricing in the best-case scenario: a V-shaped recovery, which would suggest economic growth soars in the back half of the year and reaches 2019 levels. However, new signs are emerging, that narrative is a load of shit - clearly to suck retail into the markets while "smart money" continues to dump stocks.
The report, via ThinkIQ, and first reported by Bloomberg, found New York City's finance industry won't recover until 2026.
It said at least 8% of all finance jobs in the Big Apple have already been lost because fo the COVID-19 induced economic crash. With the loss of employment, this will have a domino effect on the local economy, anything from rents to mortgage payments to restaurant spending.
ThinkIQ projects that employment levels in the world's top financial hub will be back to normal in six years. Most industries will take years to recover; for instance, leisure and hospitality will only reach 90% of its 2019 level by 2026.
As for the US, 18 million jobs could be eliminated in a post-corona world. Small business operators in a recent NFIB Small Business survey were overly bearish on the recovery timeline, with a majority indicating recovery won't be seen until sometime in 2021 (40%) and 19% said between 2022-2024. So in total, two-thirds of respondents believe a recovery is several years away.
The shape of the economic recovery is increasingly becoming more of a U or L-shaped.