As Odds Of A Chinese Hard Landing Hit 30%, Here Is The Evergrande "Worst Case"

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Sep 21, 2021 - 09:44 AM

Just in case you haven't had enough Evergrande post-mortems (which, by definition, come after the fact and sadly no bank warned what would happen ahead of time worried that by doing so it would impair its Chinese revenue potential, a huge topic in its own right), in one of the better hot takes, Goldman's Kenneth Ho writes that the two key issues facing investors are i) how Evergrande credit concerns will be resolved and ii) what will be the spillover into China's property market (discussed more extensively earlier).

Let's address these one by one:

First, the key issue is how Evergrande credit concerns are to be resolved. Evergrande announced they have engaged financial advisers to assess the companys capital structure and to find solutions for all stakeholders. This has raised investor questions on the possibility of how Evergrande could pursue actions such as a debt restructuring to resolve its credit issues. Goldman says that two factors will drive any potential spillover effects towards the broader credits and to the economy: