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Predominantly positive trade though PMIs and COVID capped upside - Newsquawk Euro Market Open

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Monday, Oct 31, 2022 - 06:54 AM
  • APAC stocks traded mostly positively following last Friday’s rally on Wall St although gains were capped by Chinese PMIs and COVID woes ahead of FOMC and US NFP this week
  • DXY was rangebound below 111.00, USD/JPY advanced at the Tokyo open and briefly reclaimed the 148.00 handle, Antipodeans were kept afloat amid the mostly positive risk tone
  • Russia announced it is suspending the UN-brokered grain agreement with Ukraine; wheat futures rallied over 5% in the early hours
  • ECB’s Knot noted the ECB is not done with normalising monetary policy and is not even at half-time in its fight against inflation
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ CPI (Flash) & GDP Prelim. (Flash), US Chicago PMI, Speech from ECB’s Lane
  • UK Clocks changed from BST to GMT on Sunday, October 30th. As such, the time gap between London and New York is four hours until US clocks change on Sunday, November 6th

  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview

 

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US TRADE

  • US stocks rallied on Friday with a tech bias and closed at session highs entering the weekend, while the upside came despite lacklustre Apple (AAPL) earnings and an awful Amazon (AMZN) report, with traders instead pointing to some likely month-end-related buying, while the bulk of the strength came in the wake of US data as real yields fell and inflation breakevens rallied after the Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) and Sept. Core PCE fell slightly as expected.
  • SPX +2.46% at 3,901, NDX +3.17% at 11,546, DJIA +2.59% at 32,861, RUT +2.25% at 1,846.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • WSJ's Timiraos noted the pandemic response left household and business finances in strong shape, while cash-rich consumers are proving to be less sensitive to tighter credit which complicates the job for the Fed and could mean higher rates for longer.
  • Goldman Sachs now sees Fed rates peaking at 5% in March which is 25bps higher than its prior forecasts, according to Bloomberg.
  • Elon Musk is said to have ordered job cuts across Twitter (TWTR) in which the layoffs would take place before November 1st when employees were scheduled to receive stock grants as part of their compensation, according to NYT. However, it was later reported that Elon Musk denied that layoffs will be taking place at Twitter before November 1st.
  • An intruder broke into House Speaker Pelosi’s home and demanded to see the House Speaker, while he attacked Pelosi’s husband with a hammer who was taken to hospital for surgery. US President Biden later stated that Pelosi’s husband was doing better after the attack and Biden urged that political actors condemn political violence, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded mostly positive with momentum from last Friday’s rally on Wall St although some of the gains were capped by disappointing Chinese PMI data and lingering COVID-19 woes, while participants are also bracing for a week laden with risk events including the latest FOMC meeting and NFP jobs data.
  • ASX 200 traded positively with advances led by outperformance in tech but with further upside limited by weakness in the commodity-related sectors and as participants await tomorrow’s RBA policy meeting.
  • Nikkei 225 was boosted after Japan’s Cabinet formally approved a JPY 71.6tln economic stimulus package on Friday and with the index shrugging off mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland pressured after Chinese PMI data showed surprise contractions in both factory and services activity, while Hong Kong was somewhat choppy amid a plethora of earnings releases including the big 4 banks and with casino names hit after Macau imposed three days of rapid Covid testing and locked down the MGM Cotai resort.
  • US equity futures slightly eased after Friday's firm rally although the pullback was limited with a floor in the Emini S&P at 3,900.
  • European equity futures were modestly higher overnight with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after cash markets closed up by 0.2% on Friday.

FX

  • DXY was rangebound below 111.00 with participants awaiting this week’s risk events including the FOMC and NFP jobs data.
  • EUR/USD remained lacklustre and beneath parity despite hawkish comments from ECB’s Knot who noted the ECB is not done with normalising monetary policy and is not even at half-time in its fight against inflation, while the single currency was mired by geopolitical concerns after Russia suspended participation in the Black Sea grains deal.
  • GBP/USD lacked direction with price action choppy around the 1.1600 level ahead of the BoE policy meeting later this week.
  • USD/JPY advanced at the Tokyo open and briefly reclaimed the 148.00 handle before partially fading the move.
  • Antipodeans were kept afloat amid the mostly positive risk tone but with gains capped after weak Chinese PMI data and ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1768 vs exp. 7.1782 (prev. 7.1698).

FIXED INCOME

  • 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre after Friday’s selling pressure in which treasuries were sold after hot inflation data from Europe and an uptick in US Core PCE Prices, while US yields remained north of 4.0% and Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for Fed rates to peak at 5% in March which is 25bps higher than its prior view.
  • Bund futures were subdued following the recent inflation data from France and Germany, as well as hawkish ECB rhetoric.
  • 10yr JGB futures fared better than global counterparts with prices kept afloat after the BoJ increased the frequency of purchases of long-term JGBs for November.

COMMODITIES

  • Crude failed to sustain initial gains after a contraction in Chinese PMI data and amid ongoing COVID woes in China.
  • US President Biden said that oil companies who complain he is picking on them ‘ain’t seen nothing yet’, according to Reuters.
  • QatarEnergy CEO said discussions are ongoing with several Asian buyers as value-added partners on the North Field expansion and that western international oil company partners have all been announced, while the CEO said several supply agreements are being discussed related to the expansion and announcement will be made in due course, according to Reuters.
  • Spot gold traded rangebound after Friday's losses and ahead of the upcoming risk events stateside.
  • Copper extended on recent declines with prices not helped by the disappointing Chinese factory activity data.
  • Wheat futures rallied by more than 5% from early in the session after Russia suspended participation in the Black Sea grain deal.

CRYPTO

  • Crypto markets were rangebound in which Bitcoin briefly tested the USD 20,500 level and Ethereum held above USD 1,500.
  • Hong Kong will begin consultations on legalising crypto trading by retail investors as it seeks to create a hub for digital tokens, according to Bloomberg.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • PBoC Governor Yi reiterated that China will continue with its prudent monetary policy to keep the value of the yuan stable and said that China has the conditions to maintain conventional monetary policy for as long as possible, while Yi also reaffirmed to step up support for the real economy, according to Caixin and Reuters.
  • China's State Council reiterated support for China's digital economy and proposed an eight-pronged approach, according to SCMP.
  • China named Chen Yixin, who is a long-time confidant of President Xi, as the new state security minister in the latest leadership shake-up, according to SCMP.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi today and discussed the need to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the US-China relationship, while Blinken raised the subject of Russia's war in Ukraine and the threat it poses to global security and economic stability, according to the State Department.
  • Shanghai Disney Resort suspended operations today due to COVID controls, according to Global Times.
  • Macau required residents to undergo three days of rapid Covid tests and locked down MGM China’s (2282 HK) Cotai casino resort although it was also reported that residents from mainland China will be able to travel to Macau from November 1st via the smart visa process, according to Reuters.
  • Foxconn's (2354 TT) Zhengzhou plant may see up to 30% of the factory's November shipments of Apple (AAPL) iPhones impacted by the COVID-19 situation and it is working to increase iPhone production at its Shenzhen factory, according to a source
  • Japan is to establish a new joint command to manage operations of land, sea and air self-defence forces with the government aiming to establish the new self-defence forces joint command in 2024, according to Nikkei. It was also separately reported that Japan is mulling extending its high-speed missile range to defend the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, according to SCMP.
  • At least 153 people died and 150 others were injured during a stampede after large crowds surged into a narrow street in Seoul’s Itaewon nightlife district, according to a fire official cited by YTN. South Korean President Yoon declared a national day of mourning and said he would come up with measures to prevent a recurrence of similar incidents, according to Yonhap.
  • At least 132 people died and many are still missing after a suspension bridge collapsed in India’s Gujarat state, according to BBC.
  • RBNZ said bank solvency stress test shows resilience to a stagflation scenario and although capital buffers would be reduced in a stagflation scenario, they would still remain above the regulatory minimum, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Composite PMI (Oct) 49.0 (Prev. 50.9)
  • Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.2 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 50.1)
  • Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.7 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.6)
  • Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Sep P) -1.6% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 3.4%)
  • Japanese Retail Sales YY (Sep) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
  • Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Sep) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)

GLOBAL NEWS

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Brazil's former President Lula has won the Brazilian presidential election run-off with 50.9% of votes vs Bolsonaro at 49.1% of votes, according to BBC.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russia announced it is suspending the UN-brokered grain agreement with Ukraine after accusing Ukraine of a massive drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea. Russia’s Defence Ministry stated that the drones used to attack Russia’s Black Sea Fleet were recovered and analysed, while it alleged that the drones used Canadian-made navigation modules and were launched by Ukraine near Odesa, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia’s suspension of the grain export deal needs a strong international response from the UN and the G20, while he suggested that Russia doesn’t belong in the G20 as it is deliberately trying to provoke starvation. Furthermore, Zelensky separately commented that Ukrainian forces repelled a fierce offensive by Russian forces in the Donetsk region.
  • Ukrainian President’s Chief of Staff accused Russia of blackmail and faking terror attacks on its own facilities in response to Russian accusations that Ukraine was behind explosions in Crimea on Saturday, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden said Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the grain deal is outrageous, according to Reuters.
  • NATO called on Russia to reconsider its decision and renew the grain deal urgently, while it said that Russian President Putin must stop weaponising food and end the illegal war on Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • UN Secretary-General Guterres delayed his departure for the Arab League Summit in Algiers by a day to focus on the Black Sea grain deal and continues to engage in intense contacts aimed at ending Russia’s suspension of participation in the deal, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters.
  • UN said Ukrainian, Turkish and UN delegations agreed on Sunday for a movement plan for 16 vessels on October 31st under the Black Sea grain initiative and agreed for inspections to be provided on Monday to 40 outbound vessels, while the UN added that the Russian delegation has been informed of both plans, according to Reuters.
  • Turkey’s Defence Minister is in talks with counterparts in Kyiv and Moscow to resume the grains deal and reminded the parties of the importance of continuing the grain deal for all humanity, while Turkey will continue to do its part for the restoration of peace in the region, according to the Defence Ministry cited by Reuters.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the Russian leadership, including President Putin, remains ready to negotiate on Ukraine, according to Anadolu Agency.
  • Russia will reportedly take into account the modernisation of US nuclear bombs in Europe in its military planning, according to RIA citing Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko.
  • Russian Defence Ministry alleged that representatives of a UK navy unit blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines although didn’t provide any evidence for its claims, while the UK Defence Ministry said that these were ‘false claims of an epic scale’ and that Russia is making false claims to detract from its disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, the French Foreign Ministry also stated that Russian accusations against Britain have no basis and are part of a strategy to turn attention away from Moscow’s sole responsibility for the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
  • US government was urged to open an investigation regarding allegations of a hacking of former PM Truss's phone while she was Foreign Secretary, while The Mail on Sunday reported that agents suspected of working for Russia were responsible for the alleged hacking, citing unnamed sources.

OTHER

  • Iranian President Raisi said security is the Islamic Republic’s red line and it will not allow its enemies to undermine it, while it was separately reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Salami warned protestors that Saturday would be the last day of riots and for protestors to not come to the streets, according to Reuters.
  • US has suggested the EU consider using export controls to target China, according to Bloomberg sources. One source suggested that the EU so far isn't inclined to consider using the same approach with China as with Russia because the circumstances are different. Talks are ongoing ahead of a high-level meeting in December.

EU/UK

NOTABLE EU/UK HEADLINES

  • UK PM Sunak is reportedly considering freezing foreign aid for two additional years to help balance UK government finances, according to The Telegraph.
  • UK government quashed suggestions that it is considering a windfall tax on banks as one of the measures to plug a hole in its finances at next month’s budget, according to The Sunday Times.
  • UK Home Secretary Braverman is under increasing pressure regarding security breaches after it emerged she took several hours to alert the UK’s top civil servant of an “error of judgement” regarding sensitive documents, according to FT.
  • UK housing developers warned that new rules and taxes will add GBP 4.5bln to annual costs, according to FT citing a report by the Home Builders Federation.
  • UK rail companies and unions are to hold talks to prevent more strikes, according to FT.
  • Royal Mail said the Communications Workers Union, which is its largest labour union, withdrew its planned strike action in Britain over the next two weeks, according to Reuters.
  • Irish PM Martin said political deadlock in Northern Ireland which led London to announce that it will call fresh elections in Northern Ireland, demonstrates that the governance system for the system is not fit for purpose and should be reformed, according to FT.
  • ECB’s Knot said the ECB is not done with normalising monetary policy and that the ECB will significantly increase rates again in December which could be by 75bps but noted the next interest step will probably be between 50bps-75bps. Knot added the following interest rate steps will probably be smaller from early 2023, while he added that the ECB is not even at half-time of its fight against inflation and that the prospect of a recession in the Eurozone has become increasingly likely, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

  • UK Lloyds Business Barometer (October) 15 (Prev. 16)
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