This Is The Single Most Important Market Indicator Of Accelerating US Fiscal Risks; Deutsche Bank

In April, Deutsche Bank's head of FX Research, George Saravelos warned, 'We're In The Middle Of Dramatic Market Regime-Change', raising fears of a dollar confidence crisis. A week later - after the 'pause' in tariffs, Saravelos warned that even if the tariffs are permanently suspended, "damage has been done" to the economy via a permanent sense of unpredictability in policy, warning that if Treasury market disruption continues, The Fed will have to restart QE.

A month later, and we are seeing increasing evidence that Saravelos is right as he highlights the widening gap between US Treasury yields and USD/JPY as the single most important market indicator of accelerating US fiscal risks.