"A Single Sentence Will Define Everything": Here's What The Fed Will Say Today

While we previously did a lengthy preview of what to expect from today's "Final rate hike and pause" Fed meeting, due to the significance of today's meeting we wanted to summarize the key points.

Echoing what we said last night, this morning Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky writes "a 25 bp hike today seems like a forgone conclusion. The big debate will be the language in the statement. The market is hoping for a 25bp and done message. Most expect a dovish outcome, that the statement will remove/alter language stating “some additional policy firming may be appropriate." As an aside, the weak JOLTS data will support a Fed pause with step down in open jobs and notable increase in construction separations.

For context, the Goldman trader notes that "hawkish" would be the Fed keeping the language as close to unchanged as possible, while "dovish" is an explicit call out to being on hold from here and the neutral comprise is somewhere in-between (maybe the 2019 language).