Stateside equity futures softer, Dollar bid post-Waller though Crude/XAU remains resilient; US IJC due - Newsquawk US Market Open

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Thursday, Mar 28, 2024 - 10:38 AM
  • European bourses hold a positive bias whilst Stateside futures are subdued ahead of a busy docket
  • Dollar bid acting as a drag on G10 peers, Antipodeans lag
  • Bonds are lower in a continuation of post-Waller price action
  • Crude and XAU remains in the green despite the stronger Dollar as geopols remain in focus
  • Looking ahead, Highlights include US GDP (F), IJC, UoM Inflation Expectations (F), Japanese Tokyo CPI & Unemployment Rate, Comments from ECB’s Knot, BoE’s Mann & RBNZ's Orr, Earnings from Walgreens.

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  • Mixed sentiment across EuropeStoxx600 (+0.2%), with a modest upward bias following a mostly-firmer APAC handover; the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) benefits from the weaker Pound.
  • European sectors hold a strong positive tilt; Travel & Leisure propped up by Evolution (+1.8%), whilst Construction & Materials is found at the foot of the pile.
  • US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.2%) are subdued following yesterday's late rally and ahead of the long weekend. A busy docket ahead will dictate price action today.
  • Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
  • Click here for more details.


  • DXY picked up strength in early European trade as participants digested hawkish remarks from the influential Waller at the Fed. DXY now at levels not seen since mid-Feb. Currently eyeing the YTD peak at 104.97. PCE tomorrow looms large.
  • EUR has been dragged lower by USD strength; EUR/USD below the double-bottom at 1.0802 and the 1.08 level with a session trough at 1.0775. Next large is the 20th Feb low at 1.0761.
  • GBP is outmuscled by the dollar with Cable tripping below the 1.26 level in quiet newsflow, where it eventually found support at its 200 DMA at 1.2588; since, it reclaimed 1.26, where it currently resides. Haskel remarks are hawkish but not necessarily a consensus view on the MPC.
  • JPY is one of the better relative performers vs. the USD but ultimately softer. Fresh Yen-specific drivers light ahead of CPI later. Currently contained within yesterday's 151.02-97 range.
  • Antipodeans lag against the majors as the uptick in the USD saw AUD/USD trip below last week's low at 0.6503 and the 0.65 mark, with softer Australian Retail Sales also a factor.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0948 vs exp. 7.2259 (prev. 7.0946).
  • Click here for more details.


  • USTs are pressured and dragging fixed benchmarks lower after Fed's Waller stuck to his hawkish bias and made clear that there is no need to rush towards rate cuts.
  • Bunds ticked higher on the region's retail numbers, though proved fleeting, with Bunds now probing 133.00 to the downside conforming to the post-Waller pressure seen in Treasuries.
  • Gilt price action is in-fitting with peers; specifics light after an interview from BoE's Haskel who underscored his hawkish credentials and made clear that while he is no longer voting for further tightening he is in no rush to vote for easing. Gilts currently at 99.57 and will find support at 99.41, 27 & 16 from the last three sessions.
  • Click here for more details.


  • A positive day thus far for the oil complex despite the strengthening Dollar and quiet newsflow, though has been edging off best levels in recent trade. Brent reside within 86.30-60/bbl parameters.
  • Precious metals vary with spot silver feeling the pressure from the firming Dollar, whilst spot gold is more resilient, potentially supported via geopols/recent BTC strength. XAU briefly printed a fresh weekly high at USD 2,200.75/oz before pulling back under USD 2,200.
  • Mixed trade across base metals with copper futures relatively flat; 3M LME copper trades on either side of the unchanged mark and towards the bottom of a USD 8,830.50-8,930.50/t.
  • Russia's Kuibyshev mid-sized oil refinery is at a complete halt following a drone attack on March 23, via Reuters citing sources.
  • Click here for more details.


  • ECB's Panetta says conditions for policy loosening are nearing; tight policy is contributing to rapid disinflation; risks to price stability has fallen.


  • German Unemployment Rate SA (Mar) 5.9% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 5.9%); Unemployment Total SA (Mar) 2.719M (Prev. 2.713M); Unemployment Total NSA (Mar) 2.769M (Prev. 2.814M)
  • German Retail Sales YY Real (Feb) -2.7% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -1.4%)
  • UK car output in February rose 14.6% Y/Y to 79,907 units, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.


  • UK GDP YY (Q4) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%); GDP QQ (Q4) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%)
  • EU Money-M3 Annual Growth (Feb) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%); Loans to Non-Fin (Feb) 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%); Loans to Households (Feb) 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • Italian Consumer Confidence (Mar) 96.5 vs. Exp. 97.5 (Prev. 97.0); Manufacturing Business Confidence (Mar) 88.6 vs. Exp. 87.6 (Prev. 87.3, Rev. 87.5)
  • Swedish Retail Sales YY (Feb) 0.3% (Prev. -1.2%); Retail Sales MM (Feb) 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)
  • UK Current Account GBP (Q4) -21.177B vs. Exp. -21.4B (Prev. -17.175B, Rev. -18.524B)
  • UK Business Invest QQ (Q4) 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%, Rev. -2.8%); Business invest YY (Q4) 2.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 1.9%)
  • Swiss KOF Indicator (Mar) 101.5 vs. Exp. 102.0 (Prev. 101.6, Rev. 102.0)


  • Fed's Waller (voter, hawk) said still no rush to cut rates in the current economy and the Fed may need to maintain the current rate target for longer than expected, while he needs to see more inflation progress before supporting a rate cut and needs at least a couple of months of data to be sure inflation is heading to 2%. Waller said he still expects the Fed to cut rates later this year but added the economy’s strength gives the Fed space to take stock of the data and data suggests fewer rate cuts possible this year.
  • S&P affirmed the US at AA+; Outlook Stable, while it stated the US outlook remains stable indicating its expectation of continued economic resiliency, as well as proactive and effective monetary policy execution. S&P said the stable outlook reflects the US's institutional checks & balances, and free flow of info contributing to stability and predictability in economic policies but added that ratings are constrained by fiscal weaknesses such as high net general government debt and deficits.
  • Home Depot (HD) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SRS Distribution for a total enterprise value (including net debt) of approximately USD 18.25bln


  • US military said it destroyed four long-range drones launched by Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, according to Reuters.


  • Bitcoin is firmer on the session and attempting to climb back above USD 71k.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) "could see upside volatility" as USD 15bln options are set to expire on Friday, according to CoinDesk. Click here for more details.


  • APAC stocks partially sustained the momentum from the late ramp-up on Wall St heading into quarter-end.
  • ASX 200 rose to a fresh record high with the broad-based gains in the index led by strength in the mining industry.
  • Nikkei 225 was pressured after the JPY bounced back from 33-year lows amid intervention risks.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were underpinned by tech strength and after another firm PBoC liquidity operation, while China's 3rd highest-ranked official Zhao Leji stated at the Boao Forum that China's economy will provide a strong driving force for a world recovery and that China will reduce the 'negative list' for foreign investors.


  • China's top legislator Zhao Leji said at the Boao Forum that Asian countries should inject a strong impetus for world economic growth and that China's economy will provide a strong driving force for world recovery. Zhao also stated that they oppose trade protection and decoupling, while he added that China is willing to collaborate with other countries on tech innovation and will reduce the 'negative list' for foreign investors.
  • China's Commerce Minister discussed with Dutch counterpart lithography machines and strengthening semiconductor industry cooperation, while the Commerce Minister stated that China hopes the Netherlands will uphold the spirit of the contract, support companies in fulfilling their contractual obligations, and ensure the normal conduct of lithography machine trade.
  • BoJ Summary of Opinions from the March 18th-19th meeting stated that a member said YCC, negative rate and other massive stimulus tools have accomplished their roles and that the BoJ must guide monetary policy using short-term rate as main policy means in accordance with economic, price and financial developments. Furthermore, a member said shifting to 'normal' monetary easing is possible without causing short-term shocks and may have a positive impact on the economy in the medium- and long-term perspective, while a member warned that changing policy now could delay achievement of the BoJ's price target.
  • Citi raises China 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5% (vs 4.6% reported in Jan).
  • China's Commerce Ministry is lifting anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian wine as of 29th March


  • Australian Retail Sales MM (Feb F) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.1%)
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) 22.9 (Prev. 34.7); ANZ Own Activity (Mar) 22.5 (Prev. 29.5)