Stock Rally Fizzles Ahead Of FOMC Minutes, Nvidia Earnings

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023 - 12:30 PM

The torrid US equity rally of the past three weeks that sent stocks near 2023 highs, stalled as futures wavered on Tuesday ahead of closely watched earnings by Nvidia and FOMC minutes as some investors questioned the sustainability of the meltup fueled by expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot to rate cuts. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures were down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.1% after the index hit a 22 month high on Monday; investors will watch NVDA earnings closely - especially after the recent OpenAI disaster - to see if another rally is possible. 10Y yield are 3bps lower at 4.41% as the USD extends its recent sharp sell-off. Commodities are mixed with ags and metals higher; iron ore the standout. Keep an eye on oil, as multiple news sources are reporting the potential for a temporary cease-fire although seeing how oil tumbled after the Israel conflict, it only makes "sense" that a ceasefire will send it higher. The macro data focus today includes the latest FOMC minutes, existing home sales, Philly/Chicago Fed activity data, NVDA earnings (post-mkt), and Treasury auctions 2Y and 10Y TIPS.

In premarket trading, Agilent Technologies jumped after an earnings beat, while Gen Digital climbs 3.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the cyber security company, saying it is “an underappreciated EPS compounder” whose shares are undervalued. Lowe’s slumped after cutting its sales forecast as did Best Buy, which dropped 4.8% after same-store sales fell by more than expected in the third quarter. Here are some other movers:

  • CRH rises 3% after agreeing to buy a portfolio of cement and ready-mixed concrete assets in Texas from Martin Marietta Materials for a total consideration of $2.1 billion.
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods rises 8.4% after the retailer reported an unexpected increase in third-quarter comparable sales and boosted its annual forecasts.
  • Hibbett Inc. rises 14% after the sporting goods retailer reported EPS and sales that topped consensus estimates in its third quarter.
  • Kohl’s Corp. falls 4.5% after reporting a seventh-straight drop in comparable sales.
  • Lowe’s drops 4.4% after the home products retailer reduced its full-year revenue forecast again.
  • Symbotic jumps 25% after the warehouse automation company forecast 1Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.

In a note published overnight (available to pro subs), Goldman strategists said there is a risk of “disappointment in the near term” amid lingering concerns about economic growth and inflation, after the S&P 500 surged to its strongest close since August and the Nasdaq 100 hit a 22-month high on Monday. On the other hand, Citigroup strategists warned of the possibility of a short squeeze that could derail the momentum; then again their warnings is rather late: the time to discuss a squeeze was weeks ago (as we did).

"Despite a more certain outlook regarding peak rates and potential cuts in 2024, there are few upside catalysts,” said Liberum strategist Susana Cruz. “Corporate guidance was pretty soft during this earning season, forecasts for the fourth quarter have fallen and we will probably see more downgrades. That’s why we expect equities to experience a soft patch in the first half of 2024."

The FOMC minutes, which are due out at 2pm, may provide more insights into policy makers’ thinking. The market is pricing in about a 30% chance of a Fed rate cut in March. “We are not expecting any major new information, but the minutes could be less dovish than the current market pricing,” said Mohit Kumar, a managing director at Jefferies International. “The minutes are likely to indicate that the door is still open for another hike and emphasize that rates need to be kept on hold for longer.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.1%, led by declines in real estate and autos, after ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said market expectations on rate cuts were too optimistic. Among individual movers, TeamViewer SE plunged after the German software maker’s largest shareholder sold part of its stake at a discount. Swiss medical devices firm Sonova Holding AG jumped after reporting results. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Sonova shares jump as much as 7.3% as investors looked past a cut to adjusted Ebitda forecasts and welcomed what they saw as more realistic guidance from the hearing-aid maker
  • Coca-Cola HBC shares advance as much as 4.1% after the anchor bottler announced a one-time €400m share buyback program. The buyback is described by Goodbody as “opportunistic”
  • Inditex shares advance 1.4% to their highest level in more than six years, taking their gain so far this year to around 47%, among the best-performing stocks on the Stoxx 600 Retail Index
  • Admiral rises as much as 3.6%, leading the Stoxx 600 insurance index on Tuesday after Citi double-upgrades to buy, writing that consensus appears overly conservative pricing impact
  • Intermediate Capital Group rises as much as 3.4% after JPMorgan upgrades the private equity firm to overweight from neutral. The broker also boosted its price target
  • Cranswick shares jump as much as 4.3% after the meat producer reported 1H earnings. Analysts said this was another strong update from the company, with RBC calling margins “impressive”
  • MorphoSys falls as much as 32%, the most in a year, after the German biotech firm announced the results of a trial for its pelabresib drug to treat myelofibrosis. Analysts see the trial as “mixed”
  • LVMH falls as much as after 1.6% after being downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS, with the broker expecting the French luxury conglomerate to pause a years-long outperformance in 2024
  • TeamViewer falls as much as 11% after an offering of 13m shares by holder Tigerluxone Sarl prices via Deutsche Bank at €13.90 apiece, representing a ~7.1% discount
  • Softcat falls as much as 4.9% after JPMorgan downgrades the IT resell

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced for a third day, bolstered by technology shares as well as Beijing’s latest move to support the property sector.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, on course for the highest close since Sept. 15. Tech stocks such as TSMC and Alibaba sent the index higher as a weakening dollar supported the sector, and artificial intelligence-related companies climbed ahead of Nvidia’s earnings results. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, mainland China, Taiwan and Korea were among the notable outperformers in the region.

  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by support-related optimism in which the Hong Kong benchmark was led by property stocks to briefly above the 18,000 level after reports that China is drafting a "whitelist" of 50 real-estate developers that would be eligible for financing, the latest move by Beijing to support the troubled property sector, while China also asked government officials to increase financial support for the economy and looks to further bolster major strategies.
  • Australia's ASX 200 was kept afloat as strength in the mining and materials sectors atoned for the slack in tech and defensives but with gains limited after the hawkish undertones from the RBA Minutes.
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction as headwinds from recent JPY strength were counterbalanced by the decline in JGB yields.
  • After several days of declines, Indian stocks rose, tracking Asian peers on improving risk sentiment in the region amid a fall in the dollar. The SENSEX Index rose 0.4% to 65,930.77 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.5%. Out of 30 stocks in the index, 18 rose and 12 fell.

In FX, the dollar falls for a fourth consecutive session while European stocks and US futures are little changed ahead of Nvidia earnings. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.2%. Chinese state media reports on stimulus, along with a possible “truce agreement” that would clear the way for the release of some hostages held by Hamas weighed on the US currency. Sentiment for the dollar also weakened after US leading index data posted a third consecutive deterioration, to further indicate potential for a recession. The Japanese yen and kiwi are the best performers among the G-10’s, rising 0.5% versus the greenback. Some hedge funds have been unwinding long USD/JPY call positions while others bought USD/JPY puts as they look for the pair to decline, according to traders

In rates, treasuries rose with US 10-year yields falling 1bp to 4.41%. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve with the long-end continuing Monday’s outperformance spurred by solid 20-year bond auction. US yields richer by ~2bp across long-end of the curve, flattening related curve spreads; 10-year yields around 4.41%, richer by 1bp on the day, trailing bunds by 1bp while keeping pace with gilts. Wider flattening moves are under way in core European rates market ahead of appearances by ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel toward the end of the European trading day. UK short-end yields edge up after Bank of England governor Bailey said interest rates may need to rise again. US session includes FOMC minutes release and a 10-year TIPS reopening. US auctions include a 2yr FRN and a $15BN 10-year TIPS reopening at 1pm.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.1% to trade near $77.70 following 6.5% two-day surge; spot gold adds 0.6%.

US economic data includes October Chicago Fed national activity index and November Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am) and October existing home sales (10am). From central banks, we will hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Schnabel and Centeno, as well as BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Ramsden, and the BoE’s Haskel and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, and US government auctions include a 2yr FRN and a 10yr TIPS auction.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,559.00
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 162.54
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 507.87
  • Nikkei down 0.1% to 33,354.14
  • Topix down 0.2% to 2,367.79
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 17,733.89
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,067.93
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 65,932.21
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,078.21
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,510.42
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 456.19
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.60%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0945
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $81.81/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,985.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.36

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Japan’s auction of 20-year government bonds met with strong investor demand as long-term US debt yields continued to fall and the yen’s strengthening cooled speculation that a central bank policy change was imminent. BBG
  • Chinese authorities are putting pressure on state banks to accelerate lending to private property developers, as they strengthen efforts to revive the country’s debt-stricken real estate market by supporting some of its biggest and most precarious companies. FT
  • OpenAI’s board of directors approached Dario Amodei, the co-founder and CEO of rival large-language model developer Anthropic, about a potential merger of the two companies, said a person with direct knowledge. The approach came after OpenAI’s board had fired CEO Sam Altman on Friday and was part of an effort by OpenAI to persuade Amodei to replace Altman as CEO, the person said. The Information
  • NVDA earnings post close today will dictate overall market sentiment for the remainder of the week.  The desk has positioning as positioning as 8 out of 10 (down from a 10 out of 10 last quarter when a blow-out print only saw the stock trade up ~10 bps on a T+1 basis). While most investors do not expect the debate around CY2025 earnings power to be settled on this call (easily the #1 debate on the stock), investors are looking for another clean beat-and-raise set of results. The bar is still very high. GS GBM
  • China encouraged lenders to cap the amount of new loans they issue in early 2024 and shift some forward, as authorities try to smooth the credit cycle, people familiar said. The guidance implies a limit in the first quarter of 7.9 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion), according to Bloomberg calculations — a quarter less than in the first three months of 2023. BBG
  • Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh said his group was close to reaching a “truce agreement” with Israel via Qatari meditation, suggesting talks over freeing some hostages held by the militant group are progressing. BBG
  • Mutual funds have struggled to keep up with benchmarks YTD, though they have fared better since the start of 3Q. While the outperformance of the largest tech stocks has continued to drag on mutual fund performance, PMs increased their exposure to the group in 3Q.  PMs rotated toward Quality, Growth, Tech and Energy in 3Q.
  • The most popular hedge fund long and short positions have supported returns despite a deteriorating stock-picking environment. Hedge funds have lifted net exposures modestly while maintaining record gross leverage. HF's bought mega-cap tech during 3Q, lifting their exposures to the "Magnificent 7" to a new high.
  •  Biden could launch an initiative to expand Social Security benefits, creating a contrast over the program between Dems and Republicans heading into the 2024 election. Politico

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the tech-led gains in the US where Microsoft shares climbed to a record high in otherwise quiet trade and with Chinese markets underpinned by property sector support. ASX 200 was kept afloat as strength in the mining and materials sectors atoned for the slack in tech and defensives but with gains limited after the hawkish undertones from the RBA Minutes. Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction as headwinds from recent JPY strength were counterbalanced by the decline in JGB yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned by support-related optimism in which the Hong Kong benchmark was led by property stocks to briefly above the 18,000 level after reports that China is drafting a "whitelist" of 50 developers for a financing boost, while China also asked government officials to increase financial support for the economy and looks to further bolster major strategies.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC reportedly encouraged some lenders to cap the amount of new loans they will issue in early 2024 and shift some of the loans forward to this year, according to Bloomberg. Subsequently, PBoC has reportedly told some banks to bring forward some of the loans and then intend to extend in early 2024 to later this year, via Reuters citing sources; a directive was reportedly issued earlier this week.
  • China's major state-owned banks seen buying Dollars via onshore swaps and selling them in spot FX market this week, according to Reuters sources.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said she is increasingly optimistic about the labour market and noted that inflation is a crucial challenge over the next one or two years.
  • RBA November Meeting Minutes stated that they considered the case for raising rates or holding steady and the Board saw a credible case that a rate rise was not needed at the meeting but judged the case for hiking was the stronger one as inflation risk increased. RBA stated that whether further tightening is required would depend on data and assessment of risks, while it saw a risk that inflation expectations could increase if rates were not raised and noted is important to prevent even a modest further increase in inflation expectations. Furthermore, it stated that staff projections for inflation at the meeting assumed one or two more rate hikes and the Board noted the Cash Rate remained below rates in many other countries, as well as acknowledged that rising house prices could indicate that policy was not especially restrictive.

European bourses are essentially unchanged, Euro Stoxx 50 U/C, with macro developments a touch light after Monday's US-tech-led performance. The FTSE 100 -0.5% is the standout laggard, amid GBP strength after BoE's Bailey on Monday and reinforced by the Treasury Select Committee headlined by the BoE's hawks. Sectors are mixed overall: Retail names the relative outperformer amid numerous broker moves for UK firms, while Telecoms, Energy & Banks are the relative laggards. Stateside, futures are flat/incrementally lower with the tone a tentative one before FOMC Minutes (early given Thanksgiving) for the November gathering, ES & NQ U/C. EU antitrust regulators raid online food delivery firms in two EU countries; companies not named, according to Reuters.

Top European News

  • EU is reportedly set to place France on a fiscal watch list which is scheduled for release today, according to Bloomberg.
  • German Economy Ministry spokesperson says the budget freeze is necessary for the situation and the government is working intensively on solutions.


  • Kiwi boosted by encouraging NZ trade data as NZD/USD bounces from 0.6030 to 0.6086 and AUD/NZD retreats through 1.0850.
  • Yen extends recovery gains against the Greenback between 148.41-147.16 parameters with impetus via softer Treasury yields.
  • Aussie and Sterling underpinned by hawkish RBA and BoE vibes as AUD/USD eyes 200 DMA at 0.6589 and Cable 100 DMA just above 1.2500.
  • Euro solid on 1.0900 handle vs Buck and testing Fib at 1.0960.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1406 vs exp. 7.1677 (prev. 7.1612).

Fixed Income

  • Bonds hit buffers after early EU advances, but retain firm bid, Bunds hold within 131.17-130.82 range.
  • Gilts stay afloat of 97.00 following a pullback from 97.51 to 97.09 amidst hawkish BoE TSC testimony.
  • T-note sits tight between 109-01+/108-26+ band awaiting US national activity index, Philly Fed non-manufacturing survey and existing home sales ahead of FOMC minutes.


  • Crude benchmarks are softer, trimming Monday's upside where the contract settled higher by over USD 1.70/bbl; action since has been more contained with specific developments light ahead of the weekend's OPEC+ meeting.
  • Currently, WTI & Brent Jan'24 trade just below USD 77.50/bbl and USD 82.00/bbl respectively, towards the top-end of circa. USD 1/bbl parameters.
  • Spot gold is bid, benefitting from the softer USD and modest yield downside, with the yellow metal holding just shy of the USD 1990/oz mark and the session high above that.
  • Base metals continue the positive APAC tone with upside driven by the USD and an escalation of strike action at the Las Bambas mine in Peru.
  • Goldman Sachs said its statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper cuts should not be ruled out given the fall in speculative positioning and time spreads, as well as higher-than-expected inventories.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russian gas production in 2023 is to be 30bcm less than in 2022, according to Tass.
  • Iranian Oil Minister says production will reach 3.6mln BPD in March 2024 and aims for 4mln BPD for the next Iranian year.
  • IEA's head of oil market says that even if OPEC+ oil production cuts are extended into 2024, IEA sees a slight surplus in the global market balance; says we are in a deficit now and all stocks are drawing at a fast rate.
  • Union at the MMG (1208 HK) Las Bambas mine in Peru is to go on indefinite strike beginning November 28th, according to the union secretary-general.
  • Codelco is to spend an extra USD 720mln overhauling its key copper mine with the Chuquicamata mine being converted from an open pit to an underground mine, according to Bloomberg.


  • Hamas chief said that they are close to reaching a temporary ceasefire agreement and that Hamas delivered its response to Qatari officials, according to Reuters. Furthermore, a Hamas official noted that ongoing talks are about a temporary ceasefire for a number of days, arrangements for entry of aid into Gaza and a hostages-prisoners swap deal.
  • "Qatari government is expected to announce today that it will reach a deal for the release of the hostages. The source added that he hoped nothing would happen on the ground in the coming hours to thwart this", according to a source cited by Axios' Ravid. Subsequently, "As part of the hostage deal, a lull in the fighting in Gaza will be declared for four days, with the possibility of extending it for another two days.", via Axios' Ravid.
  • "Qatar reveals that Hamas hostage negotiations have reached the 'closest point' to the agreement", according to Sky News Arabia citing AFP.
  • South Korea issued a sail warning following the recent notice by North Korea for a satellite launch and the South Korean Defence Ministry said it is watching North Korea's satellite launch plan with the possibility it would succeed. Furthermore, South Korea's military announced that US aircraft carrier Carl Vinson arrived at a South Korean port.
  • Israeli Officials says "There are some technical matters that must be worked on to complete the deal with Hamas ", via Al Arabiya

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Nov. Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -20.3
  • 08:30: Oct. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0, prior 0.02
  • 10:00: Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.5%, prior -2.0%
  • 14:00: Nov. FOMC Meeting Minutes

Central Bank Speakers

  • 14:00: Nov. FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

For those kind enough to have followed my daughter Maisie's battle with a hip disease called Perthes over the last 3 years, there was more good news in her latest 6 monthly scan yesterday. When she was operated on 2 years ago and spent 13 months in a wheelchair, the expectation was that she would need a hip replacement when she was around 16 after her body stopped growing. Managing it carefully through childhood was the most likely option. However it's all gone far better than expected, helped by those 13 months in a chair, and the surgeon yesterday said that she won't likely need one now until she's much later in life as the hip has nearly fully grown back now with a good shape appearing when x-rayed. The only thing she can't do for now is trampolining which is a small price to pay. She plays netball, is a phenomenal swimmer and even football so it's a big relief. The next scan isn't for a year now which shows that the consultant is very happy. So thanks for all those messages in the darker days a couple of years back.

Moving onto markets and yesterday marked a relatively quiet session as we approach the Thanksgiving holiday. A little more excitement came with a strong 20yr US treasury auction after Europe went home which helped the 60/40 trade. The S&P 500 (+0.74%), built on the last three weeks of gains to continue its run of steady advances. And the optimism was evident more broadly, with the VIX index (-0.4pts) closing at a 2-month low, and Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions easing to its most accommodative in 2 months as well. Watch out for Nvidia's earnings tonight. Their Q1 earnings in May saw markets ride a wave of huge AI momentum so its becoming an important macro event.

Ahead of that, those moves for the S&P now leave the index at its highest level since early August, having now advanced by +10.4% since the low in late-October. In fact on a monthly basis, the index is now on course for its best performance since July 2022. Interestingly, that was another month when the newsflow was predominantly negative (European gas risks, Fed hiking 75bps), but growing hopes about a dovish pivot helped support a brief resurgence for markets, ahead of bigger losses over the next couple of months. So a potential word of warning if the Fed and others do stay hawkish.

For now at least, the more positive news for risk assets actually saw investors take out a bit of the more dovish pricing for next year. For instance, the rate priced in by the Fed’s December 2024 meeting ticked up +3.1bps to 4.44%. And in turn there was a selloff at the front end of the treasury curve, with the 2yr yield up +2.5bps to 4.912%. Meanwhile, the $16bn sale of 20yr US Treasuries was stronger than expected and longer end rates rallied as a result. 20yr yields were priced at 4.80% just ahead of the auction before falling nearly -5bps in the minute after before finishing down -2.2bps on the day. Similarly, 10yr UST yields were +2bps higher prior to the auction before rallying sharply and finishing -1.6bps lower overall on the day at 4.42% and falling another -2.5bps in Asia this morning.

In Europe, we saw yields on 10yr bunds (+2.3bps), OATs (+1.8bps) and gilts (+2.1bps) move higher, albeit before the US treasury auction. That came as central bank officials warned once again about the expectation of rate cuts. For example, Spain’s de Cos said it was “absolutely premature” to begin talking about cuts, and Belgium’s Wunsch pointed out that expectations of cuts risk leading to easier policy that increases the risk of a hike. He also added that he felt markets were “relatively optimistic today that they exclude the possibility that we have to do more or that we have to remain at 4% for longer”.

Elsewhere yesterday, some of the biggest news came from the AI space. Of course, Nvidia’s earnings after the US close will be the main highlight today. But in the meantime, the saga at OpenAI has continued, as most of their employees have said they’ll resign and join their former CEO Sam Altman at Microsoft, unless the board quits instead. In terms of the market reaction, Microsoft (+2.05%) outperformed US equities more broadly on the chances of picking up AI talent and a new AI division from this saga. This helped drive the tech-focused FANG+ index (+1.55%) and the NASDAQ (+1.13%).

In the meantime, there was a continued bounceback in oil prices yesterday, with Brent crude up +1.71% to $82.32/bbl, which builds on its gains last Friday. That means Brent crude is now up more than $5/bbl over the last couple of sessions, and the moves come ahead of an OPEC+ meeting at the weekend. Speaking of oil, DB’s analyst Michael Hsueh published an update yesterday (link here) where he argues that much will turn on the outcome of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting. He writes that a temporary one-quarter production cut of 1 million barrels per day from January would be enough to return Brent back up to $90/bbl.

In the political sphere, there were some important fiscal policy headlines out of Europe yesterday. One was in the UK, where Prime Minister Sunak gave a very strong signal that tax cuts could well be included in tomorrow’s Autumn Statement. He said that now that inflation was halved, “we can begin the next phase and turn our attention to cutting tax”, and he included tax cuts as one of his five long-term priorities. Separately in Germany, Bloomberg reported that they were exploring a major overhaul of its 2023 budget following the constitutional court’s ruling last week that they couldn’t use €60bn of unspent pandemic funds for an off-budget climate fund. European equities were little affected by the headlines though, and the STOXX 600 ended the day up +0.10%.

Asian equity markets are continuing the global gains this morning led by the Hang Seng (+1.00%), with the CSI (+0.67%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.46%) also edging higher amid a rise in property stocks after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators have drafted a list of 50 real estate firms who will be able to tap low-cost financing as the real estate industry remains in the doldrums. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.96%) is also higher while the Nikkei (+0.12%) is struggling to gain traction in early trade. S&P 500 (+0.03%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.13%) futures are slightly higher.

Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest meeting indicated that the central bank opted to raise its key interest rate for the 13th time in the current cycle due to increased inflation risks along with stronger than expected performance of the economy. Also, the RBA Governor Bullock a cknowledged that inflation will remain a crucial challenge over the next one to two years. The Australian dollar is finding support from the hawkish minutes as the emphasis on fighting inflation keeps the odds of another hike in Q1 alive. As I type, the Australian dollar is trading +0.35% higher, standing at 0.658 against the dollar.

There was very little data yesterday, but we did get the Conference Board’s Leading Index for October from the US. That showed a -0.8% decline (vs. -0.7% expected ), which extends a run of declines that’s been ongoing since April 2022.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Canada’s CPI for October. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s November meeting, and also hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Schnabel and Centeno, as well as BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Ramsden, and the BoE’s Haskel and Mann. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, and US government auctions include a 2yr FRN and a 10yr TIPS auction .