"A Total Disaster": Why The Iran Nuclear Deal Will Spark An Even Greater Geopolitical Crisis

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by Tyler Durden
Friday, Mar 04, 2022 - 11:40 PM

There was a glimmer of hope for Joe Biden today, who is increasingly cornered by soaring inflation in general and the relentless surge in oil prices in particular, when Russia's chief negotiator in talks to revive a 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Iran said on Friday that he thought a deal was possible in the middle of next week.

"As far as I know, the Iranians are not ready for direct talks (with the United States)," Mikhail Ulyanov told reporters, cited by Reuters. "We will have a deal maybe in the middle of next week. We are talking about the last efforts before crossing the finish line."

But, as Rabobank's resident geopolitical strategist Michael Every writes in his daily note, think about this in the full context.

The deal’s terms, according to former Iran offical at the State Dept, Gabriel Noronha, who quit in disgust seeing it hatched out, is driven by Russia, which, along with China, is helping Iran evade sanctions.

It will allegedly include:

  • removing sanctions on human rights abusers and designated terror groups such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC);
  • allow Iran to buy tens of billions of dollars of Russian weaponry;
  • to develop ballistic missiles; and
  • offers no tougher controls on nuclear development;

Noronha's full explanation can be found here.

So, in 2031 - if not sooner given it reportedly already has 60% of the processed uranium needed for a bomb - Every warns that Iran will be a nuclear break-out state able to get one when it wants.

Every next says to look at the reaction from US-friendly UAE, under attack from Iranian proxies, at the UN Security Council; from US-friendly Saudi Arabia, under attack from Iranian proxies, via an interview with its de facto ruler Prince MBS in The Atlantic where he threatens to stop investment in the US and do more in China (Does Joe Biden misunderstand something about him? “Simply, I do not care,” MBS replied. “It’s up to him to think about the interests of America.” He gave a shrug. “Go for it.”); and from US ally Israel, under attack from Iranian proxies, which states it will ignore any deal and act as needed.

The risks are that rather than lowering oil prices and *preventing* war - against an Iran whose economy has been flattened by sanctions the US is now imposing on Russia: so do they work or not? - a new nuclear deal is more likely to *lead* to war and see oil soar to new record highs.

Every concludes that the deal also suggests the risk of the US losing critical allies at a time when sides are being taken. On which, Russia is to hold the first “International Anti-Fascist Congress” in August this year, inviting the Saudis, China, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Iran and other "stalwart defenders of democracy and human rights", as a mirror image of the recent US Summit of Democracies.

India has been invited to both; and while the US and India collaborate on the Quad against China, yesterday saw US diplomats suggest D.C. may sanction New Delhi for buying Russian weapons; and we got this 2-minute clip on Indian TV summarizing the passions and confusion.