Trump Touts "Big Jobs Numbers" Expected Friday, May Suspend Payroll Tax

President Trump told Fox News, in an interview on Wednesday morning, there will be "another big jobs number on Friday," and reiterated his view the US economy is marching towards a V-shaped recovery. 

A little more than 30 minutes after the president's interview on Fox, ADP Private Payrolls report showed a huge employment miss but revised June massively higher. 

President Trump said he might suspend the payroll tax to supercharge the economy ahead of the election, as Republicans faced strong opposition in Congress in discussions on the next stimulus bill.

"Well, I may do it myself," President Trump said. "I have the right to suspend it, and I may do it myself - I have the absolute right to suspend the payroll."

He reiterated the country is in good financial health (despite Fitch revising its US' outlook to negative last week) and ready to "rock and roll." He said the Democrats are holding things back and don't want to open schools. 

The president inaccurately said children are "almost immune" to COVID-19. When it comes to immunity among teachers, he said that "is a different story." He suggested older teachers shouldn't return to work until after the pandemic passes. 

President Trump continued to reiterate the virus is a "terrible thing that China sent us." 

The president's comments on the economy sound like election propaganda more than actual reality. As we've noted in recent weeks, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims are turning back up, as the labor market recovery stalls, or in some cases reverses.

Initial Jobless Claims

Continuing Jobless Claims

Over the last 18 weeks, more than 52 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, and a very large percentage of them are dealing with a permanent job loss. Deep economic scarring will prolong the downturn that could take years to recover back to 2019 levels. 

Current economic activity data via Goldman Sachs shows the recovery reversed in July. The labor component appears to be contributing to most of the declines. 

There are 89 days until the presidential election, and President Trump has to put his cheerleader pom-poms on and tout the best economy ever, despite the recovery stalling. 

With widespread pauses and reversals in state reopenings, due mostly to the surge in virus cases and deaths in Sun Belt states, this could ultimately reverse the economic surprise index. 

Democrats and Republicans are locked in a fierce battle on Capitol Hill about the next round of stimulus. The fiscal cliff has already hit with tens of millions of folks not receiving their $600 per week government checks while rent moratoriums have expired.