Trump Said "Markets Will Go Up Big Today"... They Didn't!

At 1048ET, President Trump told a room full of reporters that "the market was up big yesterday and its going to be up big again today."

Fwd to around 24:20:

He was right for about 20 minutes (and we note 3,000 is lost for now and the S&P is making lower highs)...

As the odds of a China trade deal dipped today...

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks were not pretty overnight with small-cap/tech pushed back into the red for the week...

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks extended gains from Monday's dip open as Brexit optimism continued...

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks are at 29-month highs relative to UK stocks on Brexit optimism...

Source: Bloomberg

Dow and S&P drifted back down to pre-trade-deal levels once again today, Trannies outperformed...

 

Another opening short-squeeze ignited some momentum but by the time Europe closed that had faded...

Source: Bloomberg

US bank stocks clung to gains but are notably off yesterday's highs...

Source: Bloomberg

BofA outperformed as Citi leaked lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Momentum is starting to accelerate lower against value again...

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks rallied again, back near one-month highs (ahead of NFLX earnings tonight)...

Source: Bloomberg

The bar has been notably lowered for NFLX tonight...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were largely lower on the day but the long-end underperformed (30Y -0.5bps, 2Y -3.5bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

A modest flattening in the yield curve today (3m10Y -2bps)

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar tumbled to 2-month lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Cable was higher once again (highest since May 2019, hovering around the lows from the initial referendum puke in 2016)...

Source: Bloomberg

With GBPUSD vol soaring to its highest since the referendum...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were hit relatively hard today...

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin bashed back below $8,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were more mixed today with oil rallying back from yesterday's losses, Gold up modestly, but silver and copper lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied but was unable to get back to $1500 (note the big moves happened around the time of the London Fixing)...

Source: Bloomberg

Choppy day in oil markets, and despite late-day weakness, ended higher ahead of the API data tonight...

Source: Bloomberg

Copper's recent underperformance against gold suggests Treasury yields should be notably lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, with the S&P 500 Index’s earnings-per-share growth barely budging, Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Sophie Caronello note that a new high for the equity benchmark may prove elusive.

Source: Bloomberg

While the gauge’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at about 19.7 on a trailing 12-month basis, Bloomberg Intelligence calculations forecast share-weighted, third-quarter earnings growth to be down about 3.8% from the year-ago period. Against a backdrop of slowing global economic growth and macro risks, including Sino-American trade and Brexit, this season’s reports along with U.S. consumer spending will continue to be closely monitored.

And all is definitely not well in liquidity land as today's overnight repo was dramatically oversubscribed (and The Fed's first POMO was 4x oversubscribed)

"probably nothing!"