This week, the veil has been lifted on President Trump's trade war narrative of an imminent trade deal with China.
Investors are starting to figure out that many trade headlines in the last 12 months from the White House, other Trump administration officials, and unnamed sources at major wirehouses have been mostly fake trade news, with one intention and one intention only: pump the stock market.
Investors discovered this week that an actual phase one trade deal might not occur this year; nevertheless, the signing of a full trade deal might not happen until after 2020. This was a shock to many PhDs on Wall Street, who have based their entire growth models for 2020 on a trade resolution. With no trade resolution likely and no massive rebound in growth, markets are setting up for a disappointment phase that could begin if an escalation of the trade war is seen on Dec. 15.
The Trump administration has learned this week that their control of the "trade optimism" narrative is becoming harder and harder.
For instance, Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue had to spill the beans on CNBC this morning and indicate that China isn't purchasing US soybeans. Perdue said the latest export numbers for US soybeans this year have been rather depressing, citing China wasn't living up to its purchase commitments and Brazil and Argentina "trying to infringe on our market time here."
Perdue says he was surprised by how weak US soybean exports have been after harvest this year, citing China not living up to its purchase commitments and Brazil and Argentina "trying to infringe on our market time here."— Kayla Tausche (@kaylatausche) December 4, 2019
Though if readers remember, President Trump tweeted in early October that he signed the most fantastic trade deal that was going to do wonders for "Great Patriot Farmers."
The deal I just made with China is, by far, the greatest and biggest deal ever made for our Great Patriot Farmers in the history of our Country. In fact, there is a question as to whether or not this much product can be produced? Our farmers will figure it out. Thank you China!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 12, 2019
As we've clearly outlined for readers in the last five months, China started to heavily source agriculture products from Brazil and Argentina, as a way to quickly diversify away from the US, though, at the same time, President Trump promoted huge deals for "patriot farmers."
CHINA HAS ALREADY BEGUN AGRICULTURAL PURCHASES FROM OUR GREAT PATRIOT FARMERS & RANCHERS!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 13, 2019
Start thinking about getting bigger tractors! https://t.co/MhmvNhAA4r— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 12, 2019
And it seems that President Trump lied not just about the trade deal several months ago, but also lied about all the agriculture purchases China was executing.
The reason for President Trump threatening to impose metal tariffs on Brazil and Argentina is because China ditched US farmers for South American ones.
China isn't going to source agriculture products from the US altogether, the reason: Beijing understands that President Trump could hold back purchases whenever he wants and call it a "national security" threat. So the fantasy about China purchasing all these agriculture products from the US was once again nothing more than a fabrication to pump stocks.
And props to CNBC's Eamon Javers, who called out the Trump administration on Tuesday for their questionable trade deal President Trump tweeted in early October. Even the mainstream is starting to get it.
Given Trump’s new comment that he may want to wait until after ‘20 for a China trade deal, here’s an exchange I had with Kellyanne Conway at the WH yesterday. I asked her if the president was wrong to announce the trade deal in October, before it was actually done. pic.twitter.com/29P7556akj— Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) December 3, 2019
Even the senior editor of China's Global Times trolled President Trump Wednesday morning for pumping fake trade news: "I predict there is a high probability that President Trump or a senior US official will openly say in a few hours that China-US trade talks have made a big progress in order to pump up the US stock markets. They've been doing this a lot."
I predict there is a high probability that President Trump or a senior US official will openly say in a few hours that China-US trade talks have made a big progress in order to pump up the US stock markets. They've been doing this a lot.😀— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) December 4, 2019
What happens next could be a credibility issue forming where investors lose faith in the Trump administration for peddling an entire year of fake trade news with absolutely no progress.
The president has said it the best:
Fake News Equals the Enemy of the People!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 22, 2019