In recent weeks we have had our share of humorous hot takes on the current state of Turkey's currency, which thanks to the "sage" economic despotism of the country's authoritarian ruler has been in freefall for much of the past decade.
folks, there's no stopping this train. pic.twitter.com/VCdQyBmnIt— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 12, 2021
Erdogan wants hyperinflation— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 13, 2021
Well, this morning the most profitable FX short this year of all expanded major FX pairs...
... continued to be the gift that keeps on giving, and collapsed as much as 4% in minutes, in an episode right out of hyperinflationary Argentina or Venezuela.
While there was no immediate catalyst for today's drop - the lira only dropped below below 10 vs the dollar for the first time ever last Friday - traders are dreading this Thursday's central bank meeting at which policymakers are expected to cut interest rates further even as Turkish inflation tops 20%.
Citing two local traders, Bloomberg said that the recent move of the lira "is the result of a surge in local demand for the dollar" which, of course, is obvious... even more so since it is extremely difficult if not impossible to buy bitcoin or other cryptos as a hyperinflation/currency collapse hedge.
The central bank is expected to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by a further 100 basis points this week to 15%, according to a Bloomberg survey of 21 participants. Meanwhile, inflation is at or above 20%.
And while conventional economists claim there is no way that Turkey can be the next locus of hyperinflation, all we can say there is give Erdoganomics another five years (because Erdo isn't going anywhere) and check back then.