US Recession Not Imminent, Says New Indicator

By Dheval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research

Executive Summary

• The US unemployment rate, now at 4.1 percent, must rise above the job vacancy rate, now at 4.6 percent, as a precondition for a demand-driven US recession.
• The more likely outcome is a ‘mini stagflation’: US economic growth slows while inflation stays sticky at, or above, 3 percent.