US stocks gained with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at fresh YTD highs as yields eventually softened ahead of key events - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

US stocks were firmer in which the SPX and NDX notched fresh YTD highs with the gains led by big tech as yields eventually moved lower ahead of US CPI data and the FOMC. There was little key data or weekend catalysts for traders to dig into although the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectation survey was the 'highlight' ahead of Tuesday's CPI release in which the survey was mixed as it showed softer 1yr inflation expectations, but a higher medium and longer-term view.
USD was choppy in tandem with yields amid a tentative mood heading into US CPI data and the FOMC, while the data calendar was very light and NY Fed consumer inflation expectations were mixed with a softer inflation view for 1-year ahead but the 3-year and 5-year estimates were firmer than prior.
Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese BSI Large Manufacturing Index, Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment & NAB Business Confidence, Supply from Australia & Japan.

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US TRADE

US stocks were firmer in which the SPX and NDX notched fresh YTD highs with the gains led by big tech as yields eventually moved lower ahead of US CPI data and the FOMC. There was little key data or weekend catalysts for traders to dig into although the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectation survey was the 'highlight' ahead of Tuesday's CPI release in which the survey was mixed as it showed softer 1yr inflation expectations, but a higher medium and longer-term view.
SPX +0.93% at 4,339, NDX +1.76% at 14,784, DJI +0.56% at 34,066, RUT +0.4% at 1,873.
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NOTABLE HEADLINES

US House Speaker McCarthy said talks involve spending levels, while he hopes to resolve floor blockade today and planned to meet with hard-liners.
NY Fed May Consumer Survey showed median 1yr-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.1% (prev. 4.4%), 3yr rose to 3% (prev. 2.9%) and the 5yr rose to 2.7% (prev. 2.6%).

DATA RECAP

US Treasuries slightly bull-steepened with yields choppy amid heavy supply, oil prices tumbling, and positioning into CPI and FOMC

USD was choppy in tandem with yields amid a tentative mood heading into US CPI data and the FOMC, while the data calendar was very light and NY Fed consumer inflation expectations were mixed with a softer inflation view for 1-year ahead but the 3-year and 5-year estimates were firmer than prior.
EUR was ultimately flat against the dollar and EUR/USD unwound most of its initial gains after stalling near 1.0800.
GBP underperformed and pulled back from a one-month high after hitting resistance just shy of the 1.2600 level.
JPY traded mixed and USD/JPY swung between gains and losses owing to the indecisive mood in yields.

Crude prices declined after staunch commodities bull Goldman Sachs slashed oil price forecasts.
Kuwait set July KEC crude OSP for Asia at Oman/Dubai +1.95/bbl, according to a document.
US total shale regions oil production for July is seen up about 9.3k BPD at 9.376mln BPD (prev. 40k BPD rise in June), according to EIA.

China reportedly assisted Iran in supplying drones to Russia, according to WSJ.
UN Secretary-General Guterres said they are concerned Russia will quit the Black Sea Grain deal next month.
Poland said NATO should respond to Russia moving nukes to Belarus.
Iranian Foreign Minister said they do not have negotiations on any agreement instead of the nuclear deal, according to AJ Breaking.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

China is considering increasing oversight around bond issuance, according to SEC News. It was also reported that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commissions said it held a high-level meeting with the China Securities Regulatory Commission on regulatory cooperation in Hong Kong.
Chinese Foreign Ministry commented on US Secretary of State Blinken visiting China and stated that they have no information on Blinken's visit at the moment.
US is reportedly moving to rejoin Unesco in a bid to counter the growing influence of China, according to an official cited by WSJ.
US President Biden's administration is said to allow top chip makers in South Korea and Taiwan to maintain and expand their existing chip-making operations in China, according to WSJ citing recent comments from a senior Commerce Department official.
US is reportedly preparing evacuation plans for US citizens living in Taiwan amid the heightened level of tension, while planning has been underway for at least six months and has heated up over the past two months or so, although this doesn't mean that the US expects there will be a war and it is only a statement that there could be a war, according to sources cited by The Messenger.
Japan’s government is said to be putting off a tax increase to fund defence spending to 2025 instead of 2024 as per the prior plan, according to Kyodo.

DATA RECAP

NOTABLE HEADLINES

BoE's Haskel said it is important they continue to lean against the risks of inflation momentum and that further rate increases cannot be ruled out, while he is monitoring indicators of inflation momentum and persistence closely.
BoE's Mann said UK output data and business surveys have remained positive since the May BoE forecasts and output data indicates strong growth ahead, while she added that upside inflation surprises since May have been in core goods and food prices.
EU's VP Sefcovic said he will not be putting the trade deal "in the shredder" which puts an end to hopes by some in the UK for an early renegotiation of the trade and cooperation agreement, according to Guardian's O'Carroll.