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Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

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Sunday, Feb 09, 2025 - 10:43 PM
  • US stocks closed in the red, as they initially saw two-way action on the US jobs report, before the move lower began in the wake of the UoM metrics whereby all the three main measures printed below consensus and outside the forecast range, with inflation expectations for both the short term and longer-term horizon lifting. The move was then notably accentuated, along with Dollar and Treasury strength accompanied by oil weakness upon Reuters source reports noting US President Trump told Republican lawmakers he plans to issue reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday, while Trump later confirmed they will meet on reciprocal tariffs on Monday or Tuesday, and have an announcement, but lacked any further details.
  • US President Trump said they will be announcing on Monday 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US and he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday which will go into effect almost immediately, while he added that no one can have a majority stake in US Steel (X).
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Current Account & Bank Lending, Australian Building Approvals Final for December, China's retaliatory tariffs against the US take effect on Monday.

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LOOKING AHEAD

  • Highlights include Japanese Current Account & Bank Lending, Australian Building Approvals Final for December, China's retaliatory tariffs against the US take effect on Monday.
  • Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

US TRADE

  • US stocks closed in the red, as they initially saw two-way action on the US jobs report, before the move lower began in the wake of the UoM metrics whereby all the three main measures printed below consensus and outside the forecast range, with inflation expectations for both the short term and longer-term horizon lifting. The move was then notably accentuated, along with Dollar and Treasury strength accompanied by oil weakness upon Reuters source reports noting US President Trump told Republican lawmakers he plans to issue reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday, while Trump later confirmed they will meet on reciprocal tariffs on Monday or Tuesday, and have an announcement, but lacked any further details.
  • SPX -0.95% at 6,026, NDX -1.30% at 21,491, DJIA -0.99% at 44,303, RUT -1.19% at 2,280.
  • Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS

  • US President Trump said they will be announcing on Monday 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium coming into the US and he will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday which will go into effect almost immediately, while he added that no one can have a majority stake in US Steel (X).
  • US President Trump said on Friday that he will make an announcement in the week ahead on reciprocal trade with many countries, while he added that tariffs are an option to address deficit and auto tariffs are always on the table. Furthermore, Trump said they will meet on reciprocal tariffs on Monday or Tuesday and have an announcement.
  • EU is set to offer lower tariffs on US cars as part of a deal to avoid a trade war with US President Trump, according to a report in the FT on Friday citing sources.
  • German Chancellor Scholz said the EU could act in an hour when asked in a pre-election debate if the EU was prepared for possible US tariffs.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • Fed Governor Kugler (voter) said on Friday that a stable labour market gives the Fed time to make decisions, while she added they are not at 2% inflation and it makes sense to hold rates steady. Kugler said they want to make sure inflation progress continues and that the economy is resilient, as well as noted that the labour market is stable which gives them a little bit of time to make decisions. Kugler also said the inflation rate has gone sideways and firmed, and that it makes sense to hold the policy rate where it is. Furthermore, she said it is prudent to hold the policy rate steady for some time, citing inflation above 2%, a solid economy, and uncertainties, while she added that they need to see continued slowing of inflation to feel comfortable cutting rates.
  • US President Trump announced he is revoking security clearances for former President Biden and stopping his daily intelligence briefings, while he stated that there was no need for Biden to have continued access.
  • US President Trump’s acting head of the consumer finance watchdog told staff to stop pending investigations and supervisory activities of banks, according to a Washington Post reporter.
  • US House Speaker Johnson said he will push the ‘one big bill’ strategy for passing US President Trump’s tax cut agenda and Republicans will find offsets to pay for Trump’s tax cut plans, according to a Fox interview.

DATA RECAP

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan) 143.0k vs. Exp. 170.0k (Prev. 256.0k, Rev. 307k); two month net revisions +100k (prev. -8k)
  • US Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%)
  • US Average Earnings YY (Jan) 4.1% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.9%)
  • Seasonally Adjusted nonfarm employment for March 2024 was revised down by 589k and NSA was revised down by 598k.

COMMODITIES

  • Iraq set Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at a premium of USD 2.65/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average and to Europe at a discount of USD 1.25/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it sent the OSP to North and South America at a discount of USD 0.65/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
  • Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have completed decoupling from the Russian power grid as planned and successfully synchronised their electricity systems to the European continental power grid.

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu dispatched a delegation to Qatar’s Doha for the next phase of ceasefire talks.
  • Israeli military said operations in the northern West Bank expanded to Nur Shams, while it added that several terrorists were killed and wanted suspects were detained. It was separately reported that Israel’s army confirmed it received three hostages and said it struck a Hamas weapons depot in Syria.
  • US President Trump said he is committed to buying and owning Gaza and may give sections to other states in the Middle East to rebuild it, while he added that they will make Gaza into a good site for future development. Trump also said that he will be meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince MBS and Egyptian President Sisi, as well as noted that Middle Eastern nations will take Palestinians after those nations speak to him.
  • Turkish President Erdogan said that they have no need to discuss or take seriously US President Trump’s Gaza plan, while he added that no one has the power to remove the people of Gaza.
  • Qatar condemned statements by Israeli PM Netanyahu on establishing a Palestinian state inside Saudi territory.
  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei met with visiting top Hamas leaders in Tehran.
  • Egypt’s Foreign Minister heads to Washington for talks with US officials, according to AFP.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • US President Trump said on Friday that he has spoken to Russian President Putin by phone regarding ending the Ukraine war, according to the New York Post.
  • US President Trump said he does not want to talk about his conversation with Russian President Putin but believes they are making progress and expects to have more conversations with Putin. Furthermore, Trump declined to say when they talked and noted that he would meet with Putin in person at the right time.
  • Russia’s Kremlin said it can neither confirm nor deny publications regarding the Putin-Trump conversation, while Russia’s envoy to the UN said Russia awaits appropriate signals from the US regarding contacts with Moscow and that Russia has not yet seen positive steps from the new US administration on disarmament, according to RIA.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured Orikhovo-Vasylivka in eastern Ukraine, while it was also reported that Russia said its troops repelled three Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kursk region.

OTHER

  • North Korean leader Kim said the trilateral cooperation among the US, Japan and South Korea is raising a grave security challenge. It was also reported that North Korea noted its nuclear weapons are not a bargaining chip and that its nuclear forces are meant for combat against enemies that threaten global peace, according to KCNA.

ASIA-PAC

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • India's Finance Minister said a new income tax bill will be introduced in parliament during the week ahead.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese CPI MM (Jan) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.0%)
  • Chinese CPI YY (Jan) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.1%)
  • Chinese PPI YY (Jan) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.1% (Prev. -2.3%)

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

  • UK Health Minister Andrew Gwynne was fired by PM Starmer over WhatsApp messages, which insulted constituents, fellow MPs and councillors.
  • French President Macron said France will announce during the Paris AI summit opening on Monday EUR 109bln investments in AI over the coming years.
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