What Will Happen If Trump Fires Powell

As DB's Jim Reid recaps, it lasted just under than an hour, but yesterday we got a glimpse of what might happen if the Trump administration removed Powell from office. Using probabilities from Polymarket - which has now made its way into every Wall Street bank - the DB strategist writes that the likelihood of Powell’s removal this year had mostly been in the 10-15% range since January, but this week moved to a higher range and yesterday we peaked at almost 40% before retracing back to around 20% by the close. That was still around 5% lower than the open after Trump said he was “not planning” on firing Powell and that it was “highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud”.