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Zoltan: "This Is What The New World Order Will Look Like" After Europe's Minsky Moment "Where $2 Trillion Of German Value Depends On $20 Billion Of Russian Gas"

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Aug 30, 2022 - 09:45 AM

Once upon a time, Zoltan Pozsar's monetary dispatches published by his current employer Credit Suisse (which soon will be unable to afford the services of the former NY Fed repo plumbing guru as it fires pretty much anyone who generates value) were short, dry, and - for lack of a better word - life-crushingly boring, if annoyingly accurate. But that all changed in February when the man who has correctly predicted every recent major market crisis in the past decade, decided to expand into political economy and historical analysis, realizing - as we did over a decade ago - that any market commentary devoid of political analysis and/or historical context, especially in a time of MMT, helicopter money and weaponized money printers, is completely worthless (with apologies to those (broke) purists who still live in some magical universe where they believe financial analysis can take place away from politics).

Since then, Zoltan's pieces have not only become gripping mini-novellas that fuse financial, historical and geopolitical narratives to expound on the repo guru's (increasingly more dire views), but have transformed into a must read for the financial community, not least of all because once again the Hungarian has been quite accurate in his predictions (his latest one - which we disagree with, but at least on Friday the market seems to agree - is that "Powell Will Push The Economy Into A "Depression" To Curb Inflation").

Consider Zoltan's latest note, published late last week, and titled "War and Industrial Policy" (available to zh professional subs in the usual place) - in it Zoltan not only doubles down on his monetary doomsday prediction that Bretton Woods III "is destined to happen" - much to the fury of other geopolitical commentators such as Rabobank's Michael Every - now that we live in a post-globalist world where trust between the key players is (perhaps terminally) broken, but more notably, he quantifies what it would take for the "west" to win the economic war that broke out in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, and when the last trace of the legacy geopolitical system shattered.