It has been a while since we heard from SocGen's uber-soothsayer Albert "Ice Age" Edwards. He is now back, and with quite a bang, reiterating a line from Marc Faber that will prove 100% accurate in a few short years. The French bank's forecaster, who has proven more accurate than most (and certainly far better than Wall Street's permabull-by-default brigade which is trotted out every day there is a market uptick and promptly tucked in when reality returns) just made the call to cut equity allocation to the lowest possible 30% (from 35%), while hiking cash from 15% to 20%. Deja vu? "the last time I reduced my equity weighting to 30% was 8 May 2008 when the S&P was stlll standing at 1400."
From Albert Edwards:
Lowering equity weighting to minimum - "The Fed will destroy the world”
In 2005 when Alan Greenspan was being hailed as a “maestro” I wrote that his policies would ruin the world and history would judge him to be “an economic war criminal”. I now think Ben Bernanke’s policies will prove even more ruinous than Sir Alan’s (yes unbelievably he still retains his honorary knighthood). Hence we are lowering our equity weighting to 30%, the minimum possible. The last time I did this was 8 May 2008.
- I'm reading some insanely stupid stuff at the moment. Okay, I know some of my writing is pretty insane, but when I read direct quotes and commentary about Bernanke's policy of driving up asset prices in general and equity prices in particular, I almost want to cry over the ludicrousness of this position. The Fed is pursuing the same road to ruin as it did between 2003-2007. I'm becoming more and more convinced that, Gloom, Boom, & Doom's Marc Faber is right when he says that "the Fed will destroy the world" - link. (Also keep your eyes open for Dylan's next Popular Delusions.)
- I agree with Philadelphia Fed President Charles Prosser, who dared to suggest the Emperor had no clothes by saying that QE, including the bank's purchase of $40bn a month of mortgage bond purchases, was unlikely to do much to boost growth and decrease unemployment.
- Regular readers will know that in the main, my market timing is unerringly inaccurate, normally months if not years too early. But for those who might write off this move down to 30% as the yet more rantings of a lunatic, the last time I reduced my equity weighting to 30% was 8 May 2008 when the S&P was stlll standing at 1400.